Pakistan Central Bank Holds Policy Rate at 11.5%

The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.5% at its September 14th, 2026 meeting, keeping borrowing costs steady for a third consecutive meeting and in line with market expectations. Credit-rating upgrades and a record USD 3 billion bond sale underscored improvements in investor confidence. Still, energy-dependent Pakistan remains vulnerable to energy shocks following a surge in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, threatening to increase import costs and strain external finances. Headline inflation jumped to 11.15% in August, more than tripling from 3.1% a year earlier and moving further above the SBP’s target range of 5-7%.

The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.5% at its July 27th, 2026 meeting, marking a second consecutive pause as policymakers cited an improving macroeconomic outlook. Headline inflation eased to 11.1% in June from 11.7% in May, reflecting lower global energy prices and favorable electricity tariff adjustments. Economic growth slowed to 4.0% in the first quarter of 2026, weighed by the Middle East conflict and the resulting rise in global energy prices. Looking ahead, the central bank expects stronger commodity-producing sectors to support services activity, with FY2027 GDP growth projected at 3.5%-4.5%. Inflation is forecast to gradually ease toward the upper end of the 5%-7% target range by June 2027. However, the outlook remains subject to uncertainty regarding geopolitical tensions and weather conditions, including El Niño effects, and potential fiscal slippages.

The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11.5% on June 15, 2026. While recent geopolitical developments have been broadly positive, concerns over global oil prices continue to pose risks to the inflation outlook. Headline inflation accelerated to 11.7% in May 2026, exceeding the central bank’s 5%–7% target range and reaching its highest level since June 2024. Inflation is expected to remain in double digits over the coming months, driven by several risks, including higher domestic fuel prices, potential fiscal slippages, and uncertainty surrounding food prices amid weather-related challenges. Meanwhile, the economic growth rose to 3.7% in FY26, supported primarily by the services and industrial sectors, with contributions from agricultural activities. Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to moderate as spillovers from regional conflicts and adverse weather conditions continue to weigh on the outlook for FY27.