Pakistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6 6 5.9 5.9 5.7 percent
Inflation Rate 5.21 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 7 7 7 percent
Balance of Trade -452668.00 -325120 -318987 -291522 -277928 -274693 PKR Million
Government Debt to GDP 67.20 67.6 67.6 68.2 68.2 70 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 128.40
123 125 127 128 135
Stock Market 41361.09
points
38635 37048 35525 34066 28803
Government Bond 10Y 10.00
percent
9.4 9.88 10.38 10.91 13.29
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.79
percent
5.2 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.5
GDP 304.95
USD Billion
315 315 335 335 360
GDP Constant Prices 12416918.00
PKR Million
12360669 13062598 13000513 13000513 14291984
Gross National Product 13081028.00
PKR Million
13051083 13761241 13695836 13695836 15056381
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1975936.00
PKR Million
1732926 2078685 2068805 2068805 2274320
GDP per capita 1222.52
USD
1290 1290 1410 1410 1520
GDP per capita PPP 5034.70
USD
5135 5135 5269 5269 5328
GDP From Agriculture 2284561.00
PKR Million
2322908 2403358 2391935 2391935 2629550
GDP From Construction 320769.00
PKR Million
309450 337449 335845 335845 369208
GDP From Manufacturing 1572948.00
PKR Million
1571866 1654741 1646877 1646877 1810477
GDP From Mining 339747.00
PKR Million
352674 357414 355715 355715 391052
GDP From Services 6970204.00
PKR Million
6919150 7332655 7297804 7297804 8022767
GDP From Transport 1551714.00
PKR Million
1570506 1632403 1624645 1624645 1786037
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent
6 6 5.9 5.9 5.7
Unemployed Persons 3620.00
Thousand
3636 3940 3635 3606 4070
Employed Persons 57420.00
Thousand
58088 58062 58351 58640 62025
Population 200.16
Million
217 217 221 221 225
Living Wage Family 28800.00
PKR/Month
30000 30000 31000 28379 31000
Living Wage Individual 14400.00
PKR/Month
13971 19000 14026 14070 24000
Wages High Skilled 49800.00
PKR/Month
50000 50000 52000 45059 54000
Wages Low Skilled 20700.00
PKR/Month
21200 21200 21200 23727 22000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.21
percent
5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 226.68
Index Points
230 233 234 241 262
Core Inflation Rate 7.10
percent
7.53 5.2 7.62 7.62 3.7
GDP Deflator 262.55
Index Points
260 265 260 259 300
Producer Prices 234.40
Index Points
231 235 240 250 265
Export Prices 715.10
Index Points
725 731 730 733 740
Import Prices 1208.90
Index Points
1195 1490 1187 1184 1690
Inflation Rate Mom 0.57
percent
0.32 -0.2 0.39 0.39 0.2
Food Inflation 2.07
percent
2.9 2.8 3.25 1.92 3.5
CPI Transportation 194.64
Index Points
185 190 198 207 214
Producer Prices Change 7.60
percent
5.8 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.1
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 7 7 7
Interbank Rate 6.35
percent
6.35 6.35 6.85 6.85 6.85
Money Supply M0 5298129.00
PKR Million
5449078 5350000 5771074 5927984 6340000
Money Supply M1 12870130.00
PKR Million
13290481 13639435 13988150 14335417 17715580
Money Supply M2 15431483.00
PKR Million
15912550 16700000 16668771 17046823 20000000
Money Supply M3 19061554.87
PKR Million
19609024 19500000 20476143 20910593 21900000
Deposit Interest Rate 4.48
percent
4.48 4.48 4.98 4.98 4.98
Foreign Exchange Reserves 15976.50
USD Million
14435 36429 13469 13572 46429
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -452668.00
PKR Million
-325120 -318987 -291522 -277928 -274693
Exports 224324.00
PKR Million
252694 215864 236957 241854 251785
Imports 676992.00
PKR Million
577814 534851 528479 519782 526478
Current Account -4109.00
USD Million
-4200 -4500 -4300 -4200 -1200
Current Account to GDP -5.30
percent
-5.7 -5.8 -5.6 -5.2 -5.2
External Debt 91761.00
USD Million
97000 100000 102000 105000 123000
Terms of Trade 59.20
Index Points
60.64 49.06 61.51 61.92 43.79
Remittances 4862.00
USD Million
4900 5000 5050 5250 5200
Gold Reserves 64.60
Tonnes
64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6
Capital Flows -1100.00
USD Million
-1900 -2100 -1800 -1750 -980
Crude Oil Production 92.00
BBL/D/1K
93 94 95 95 98
Foreign Direct Investment 3434.90
USD Million
3500 3500 3900 3900 4100
Terrorism Index 8.40
8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 67.20
percent
67.6 67.6 68.2 68.2 70
Government Budget -5.80
percent of GDP
-4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -3.7 -2
Government Budget Value -1863.80
PKR Billion
-1750 -1750 -1450 -1450 -1400
Government Spending 1587677.00
PKR Million
1478732 1670236 1662298 1662298 1827430
Government Revenues 4936.70
PKR Billion
5350 5350 5900 5900 6100
Government Debt 23769.90
PKR Billion
24000 24400 24900 25150 27000
Fiscal Expenditure 6800.50
PKR Billion
7100 7100 7350 7350 7500
Military Expenditure 10378.20
USD Million
10629 12201 10804 10860 14539
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 4.12
percent
4.2 4.5 5.2 5.3 6.2
Manufacturing Production 4.10
percent
5.5 5.6 6.1 6.3 7
Changes in Inventories 209611.00
PKR Million
206652 204000 213076 213875 221000
Internet Speed 2326.59
KBps
2680 2734 2788 2841 3343
IP Addresses 2921934.00
IP
3403256 3493069 3555036 3637399 4364768
Industrial Production Mom -1.59
percent
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8
Competitiveness Index 3.67
Points
3.67 3.67 3.8 3.8 3.8
Competitiveness Rank 115.00
115 115 114 114 110
Cement Production 3787.00
Thousands of Tonnes
3618 3800 3621 3621 4290
Ease of Doing Business 147.00
148 148 149 149 150
Electricity Production 7976.00
Gigawatt-hour
9321 9800 7189 7071 12300
Corruption Index 32.00
Points
33 33 34 34 35
Corruption Rank 117.00
117 117 116 116 115
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 47.61
Index Points
48.7 46.9 46.5 47.2 45.8
Consumer Spending 10626857.00
PKR Million
9643956 11179454 11126319 11126319 12231608
Gasoline Prices 0.76
USD/Liter
0.72 0.68 0.64 0.61 0.34
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 31.00
percent
31 31 33 33 32
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 6.35
mm
43.14 9.27 28.45 26.4 25.64
Temperature 10.83
celsius
27.86 15.78 12.42 27.06 21.11