Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.71 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 3.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6 5.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 5.02 4.9 5 5.3 5.1 3.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -362902.00 -293919 -258100 -307214 -281924 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 66.50 67 67 67 68 72 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 104.64 106 107 110 109 126 [+]
Stock Market 46332.31 47000 46500 45100 45500 38000 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.20 9.02 9.11 9.2 9.29 10.72 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.71 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.28 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 3.7 percent [+]
GDP 271.05 328 328 328 347 403 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11777600.00 12300000 12300000 12300000 12900000 13800000 PKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 12465443.00 13700000 13700000 13700000 14200000 15442716 PKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1647268.00 1738400 1738400 1738400 1877472 2160000 PKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 1142.70 1228 1228 1228 1293 1388 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 4706.18 5279 5279 5279 5404 5778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2206357.00 2217402 2217402 2217402 2254020 2391000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 287569.00 315700 315700 315700 341000 394000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1513752.00 1600000 1600000 1600000 1680000 1840000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 331853.00 350000 350000 350000 364000 368000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 6584437.00 6987960 6987960 6987960 7393261 8166570 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 1479021.00 1500000 1500000 1500000 1530000 2000000 PKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6.1 6.1 6 5.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 57420.00 58487 58487 58487 60858 63022 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3620.00 3800 3880 3880 3940 4070 Thousand [+]
Population 193.56 196 196 196 200 206 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 43600.00 44500 45000 47000 50000 54000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 30447.80 31000 32000 32000 33000 38000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 16967.10 18000 18200 18400 18900 24000 PKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.02 4.9 5 5.3 5.1 3.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 216.33 217 220 221 222 256 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.50 5.2 5 5.6 5.4 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 256.60 258 258 258 265 300 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 218.78 220 223 225 227 253 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 703.80 708 711 715 720 740 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 1224.90 1230 1250 1410 1300 1690 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.20 4.9 4.7 5.3 5.1 5.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.55 4.4 3.9 4.5 4.1 3.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.01 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 176.43 178 180 183 185 206 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.01 6 5.9 5.8 5.8 4.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4522238.18 4371023 4580000 4790000 4857653 6340000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 11112338.00 11325985 11625607 11927122 12227240 15402209 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13482689.00 13669688 14800000 15414387 14680485 20000000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 16874152.90 17200000 17400000 17600000 18304540 21900000 PKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 21019.20 24423 26900 28029 30000 46429 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -362902.00 -293919 -258100 -307214 -281924 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Exports 170422.00 183033 169358 186326 198948 201109 PKR Million [+]
Imports 533324.00 540000 450000 517000 532000 566315 PKR Million [+]
Current Account -2586.00 -1110 -1800 -2100 -700 -980 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.20 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -0.8 percent [+]
External Debt 75747.00 76579 77107 77907 78482 82028 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.50 62 63 65 68 86 Index Points [+]
Remittances 4600.00 5161 5700 4603 5300 4445 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 64.52 64.52 64.5 64.52 64.52 64.52 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 8.61 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 [+]
Capital Flows -989.00 -2100 -1600 -1850 300 -980 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 98.00 96.27 87 87 89 79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2761.10 2926 2926 2926 3072 3200 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 66.50 67 67 67 68 72 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.90 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.5 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1349.30 -800 -800 -800 -100 -1800 PKR Billion [+]
Government Spending 1405639.00 1624000 1624000 1624000 1710000 1898000 PKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 4447.00 5500 5500 5500 6000 7000 PKR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 5796.30 6300 6300 6300 7000 8200 PKR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 9931.30 10164 10165 10165 12201 14539 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 10.65 9.1 7.6 2.9 5.2 2.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 10.50 6.2 4.7 5.9 3.1 2.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 188442.00 196000 196000 196000 204000 221000 PKR Million [+]
Industrial Production Mom 7.37 6 4 4 3.1 6 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.53 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 122.00 122 122 122 118 110 [+]
Cement Production 3498.00 3100 3000 3400 3310 4290 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 144.00 138 138 138 134 130 [+]
Electricity Production 7455.00 12500 10800 8445 9100 12300 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 31 31 31 32 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 116.00 116 116 116 115 113 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 168.26 176 177 175 177 180 [+]
Consumer Spending 9167259.00 9300000 9300000 9300000 9653587 10295146 PKR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.98 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]