Pakistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6 5.92 6 5.9 5.7 percent
Inflation Rate 3.68 6.5 7.2 7 6.5 5.5 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 7 percent
Balance of Trade -343574.00 -356986 -365247 -365784 -352382 -365206 PKR Million
Government Debt to GDP 67.20 68 68 68 70 72 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 115.56
117 118 120 121 127
Stock Market 41623.52
points
43932 41862 39893 38012 31341
Government Bond 10Y 8.50
percent
9.87 10.82 11.86 13.01 18.79
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.79
percent
5 5 5 4.62 5.5
GDP 283.66
USD Billion
347 291 347 336 347
GDP Constant Prices 12416918.00
PKR Million
12337169 12337169 13037764 12990580 14497602
Gross National Product 13081028.00
PKR Million
13026271 13026271 13735079 13685371 15272996
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1975936.00
PKR Million
1729631 1729631 1809194 1723372 2011770
GDP per capita 1181.60
USD
1293 1293 1293 1329 1388
GDP per capita PPP 4866.20
USD
5404 4950 5404 5620 5778
GDP From Agriculture 2284561.00
PKR Million
2318491 2318491 2398789 2390108 2667381
GDP From Construction 320769.00
PKR Million
308862 308862 336807 335589 374520
GDP From Manufacturing 1572948.00
PKR Million
1568877 1568877 1651595 1645618 1836525
GDP From Mining 339747.00
PKR Million
352003 352003 356734 355443 396678
GDP From Services 6970204.00
PKR Million
6905996 6905996 7318714 7292227 8138191
GDP From Transport 1551714.00
PKR Million
1567520 1567520 1629300 1623403 1811732
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent
6 5.92 6 5.9 5.7
Unemployed Persons 3620.00
Thousand
3940 3606 3940 3607 4070
Employed Persons 57420.00
Thousand
60858 58088 58062 58351 62025
Population 200.16
Million
213 214 217 220 225
Living Wage Family 28800.00
PKR/Month
30000 30000 30000 31000 31000
Living Wage Individual 14400.00
PKR/Month
19000 14400 19000 14400 24000
Wages High Skilled 49800.00
PKR/Month
50000 50000 50000 52000 54000
Wages Low Skilled 20700.00
PKR/Month
21200 21200 21200 21200 22000
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.68
percent
6.5 7.2 7 6.5 5.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 224.25
Index Points
225 229 236 235 263
Core Inflation Rate 7.00
percent
5.3 5.41 5.2 5.39 3.7
GDP Deflator 262.55
Index Points
265 253 265 252 300
Producer Prices 228.07
Index Points
226 224 231 231 252
Export Prices 715.10
Index Points
725 705 731 705 740
Import Prices 1208.90
Index Points
1350 1218 1490 1218 1690
Inflation Rate Mom 1.80
percent
0.4 0.27 -0.2 0.27 0.2
Food Inflation 1.54
percent
2.8 2.9 2.8 3.25 3.5
CPI Transportation 187.48
Index Points
184 184 192 199 215
Producer Prices Change 4.04
percent
4.8 2.59 4.5 2.64 5.1
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 6 6 6 7
Interbank Rate 6.01
percent
6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 7.26
Money Supply M0 5037100.94
PKR Million
4996131 4707862 5350000 4729046 6340000
Money Supply M1 12452092.00
PKR Million
11791903 11759651 11759332 11762217 11763372
Money Supply M2 15100078.00
PKR Million
14278203 14245430 16700000 14280519 20000000
Money Supply M3 18664535.78
PKR Million
18293453 18277024 19500000 18200284 21900000
Deposit Interest Rate 4.48
percent
5.5 4.32 5.3 3.83 4
Foreign Exchange Reserves 17812.70
USD Million
33730 20352 36429 19680 46429
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -343574.00
PKR Million
-356986 -365247 -365784 -352382 -365206
Exports 246167.00
PKR Million
194014 189582 191916 199394 201109
Imports 589741.00
PKR Million
551000 554828 557700 551775 566315
Current Account -4109.00
USD Million
-1000 -3875 -1800 -3874 -980
Current Account to GDP -5.30
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1 -0.8
External Debt 91761.00
USD Million
80074 85641 85641 85641 85641
Terms of Trade 59.20
Index Points
53.7 57.91 49.06 57.91 43.79
Remittances 4862.00
USD Million
5500 5018 5018 5018 5018
Gold Reserves 64.60
Tonnes
64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6
Capital Flows -1100.00
USD Million
-1500 -830 -2100 -858 -980
Crude Oil Production 94.00
BBL/D/1K
89 90.96 89 86.71 79
Foreign Direct Investment 3434.90
USD Million
3072 2972 3072 2643 3200
Terrorism Index 8.40
8.5 8.18 8.5 8.02 8.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 67.20
percent
68 68 68 70 72
Government Budget -5.80
percent of GDP
-2.5 -4.69 -2.5 -5.07 -1.5
Government Budget Value -1863.80
PKR Billion
-1000 -1011 -1000 -852 -1200
Government Spending 1587677.00
PKR Million
1475921 1475921 1543813 1470580 1716674
Government Revenues 4936.70
PKR Billion
6000 4757 6000 4996 7000
Government Debt 23344.00
PKR Billion
23381 23845 24309 24773 29873
Fiscal Expenditure 6800.50
PKR Billion
7000 5768 7000 5848 8200
Military Expenditure 10378.20
USD Million
12201 10215 12201 10369 14539
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.87
percent
8.4 8.7 8.5 7.86 8.4
Manufacturing Production -2.00
percent
7.6 7.5 7.6 8.62 8
Changes in Inventories 209611.00
PKR Million
204000 185265 204000 187308 221000
Internet Speed 2326.59
KBps
2627 2680 2734 2788 3343
IP Addresses 2921934.00
IP
3196083 3195446 3193297 3179852 2847067
Industrial Production Mom -0.35
percent
4.8 5.6 5.5 3.9 7
Competitiveness Index 3.67
Points
3.53 3.58 3.53 3.58 3.8
Competitiveness Rank 115.00
118 112 118 108 110
Cement Production 4000.00
Thousands of Tonnes
3200 3482 3800 3295 4290
Ease of Doing Business 147.00
134 147 134 147 130
Electricity Production 7976.00
Gigawatt-hour
13000 11304 9800 11304 12300
Corruption Index 32.00
Points
32 32 32 32 34
Corruption Rank 117.00
115 117 115 117 113
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 48.32
Index Points
50 52 47 47.83 41
Consumer Spending 10626857.00
PKR Million
9625622 9625622 10068401 9590786 11195759
Gasoline Prices 0.74
USD/Liter
0.68 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.4
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 31.00
percent
31 31 31 34 32
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 6.35
mm
19.51 43.14 9.27 28.45 25.64
Temperature 10.83
celsius
26.44 27.86 15.78 12.42 21.11