Pakistan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6 6 5.72 5.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.86 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 percent [+]
Interest Rate 5.75 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -294709.00 -307214 -281924 -316324 -297918 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 66.50 67 68 68 70.32 72 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 105.20 104 103 102 101 89.42 [+]
Stock Market 42087.89 40900 40500 40100 39700 35100 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.20 8.33 8.42 8.5 8.58 9.49 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.28 5.1 5 5 5 5.5 percent [+]
GDP 283.66 328 347 347 303 322 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11777600.00 12300000 12900000 12900000 12826766 13800000 PKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 12465443.00 13700000 14200000 14200000 12365353 15442716 PKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1647268.00 1738400 1877472 1877472 1525202 2160000 PKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 1181.60 1228 1293 1293 1232 1388 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 4866.20 5279 5404 5404 5052 5778 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2206357.00 2217402 2254020 2254020 2213804 2391000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 287569.00 315700 341000 341000 283124 394000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1513752.00 1600000 1680000 1680000 1568262 1840000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 331853.00 350000 364000 364000 334336 368000 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 6584437.00 6987960 7393261 7393261 7065244 8166570 PKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 1479021.00 1500000 1530000 1530000 1564737 2000000 PKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6.1 6 6 5.72 5.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 57420.00 57918 60858 60858 58164 58275 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3620.00 3880 3940 3940 3530 4070 Thousand [+]
Population 207.77 211 212 213 214 225 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 43600.00 47000 50000 50000 44131 54000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 30447.80 32000 33000 34000 30738 38000 PKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 16967.10 18400 18900 19000 17269 24000 PKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.86 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 217.98 220 217 217 217 220 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.40 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.88 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 256.60 258 265 265 249 300 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 218.08 225 227 231 218 253 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 703.50 715 720 725 695 740 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 1233.50 1410 1300 1350 1217 1690 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 4.3 5.1 4.8 6.18 5.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.50 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.63 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.64 0.2 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 175.74 183 185 188 174 206 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 5.75 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.01 5.8 5.8 5.7 7.12 4.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4823754.99 4790000 4857653 4996131 4873415 6340000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 11773198.00 12020745 12044099 12041290 12019727 11590051 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 14306199.00 15414387 14652729 14647721 14622847 20000000 PKR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 17788426.03 17600000 18329088 18366661 18366162 21900000 PKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.83 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.55 4 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 19763.20 28029 30000 33730 17561 46429 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -294709.00 -307214 -281924 -316324 -297918 -365207 PKR Million [+]
Exports 176427.00 186326 198948 194014 178190 201109 PKR Million [+]
Imports 471136.00 517000 532000 551000 485812 566315 PKR Million [+]
Current Account -4419.00 -2100 -700 -1000 -2362 -980 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.20 -2.5 -2.2 -2.2 -2.14 -0.8 percent [+]
External Debt 82981.00 85509 88362 80074 90139 91446 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.00 65 68 70 58.06 86 Index Points [+]
Remittances 4600.00 4565 5300 5500 4529 4434 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 64.56 64.6 64.61 64.63 64.65 64.75 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 8.61 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.52 8.1 [+]
Capital Flows -3460.00 -1850 300 -1500 -1309 -980 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 98.00 87 89 89 95.05 79 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2761.10 2926 3072 3072 2198 3200 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 66.50 67 68 68 70.32 72 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.90 -3.8 -2.5 -2.5 -3 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1349.30 -800 -100 -1300 -1370 -1800 PKR Billion [+]
Government Spending 1405639.00 1624000 1710000 1710000 1452323 1898000 PKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 4447.00 5500 6000 6000 4146 7000 PKR Billion [+]
Government Debt 20767.90 21179 21208 21184 21128 20283 PKR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 5796.30 6300 7000 7000 5877 8200 PKR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 9931.30 10165 12201 12201 10475 14539 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 13.14 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 12.90 7.4 8 7.6 7.5 8 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 188442.00 196000 204000 204000 186477 221000 PKR Million [+]
Industrial Production Mom 10.03 7.3 6 4.8 5.6 7 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.67 3.49 3.53 3.53 3.56 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 115.00 122 118 118 112 110 [+]
Cement Production 3105.00 3400 3310 3200 2846 4290 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 144.00 138 134 134 155 130 [+]
Electricity Production 11828.00 8445 9100 13000 8558 12300 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 32.00 31 32 32 28 34 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 116.00 116 115 115 113 113 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 173.81 175 177 172 169 180 [+]
Consumer Spending 9167259.00 9300000 9653587 9653587 8944768 10295146 PKR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.75 0.78 0.8 0.68 0.98 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 36.71 32 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 21.03 20 20 20.96 20.78 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 16.65 17 17 16.48 16.1 percent [+]