Pakistan Hikes Policy Rate in Surprise Move

2026-04-27 11:19 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

The State Bank of Pakistan raised its benchmark policy rate by 100 bps to 11.5% on April 27, 2026, surprising analysts who expected it to remain steady at 10.5%.

This marked the first rate hike since June 2023, amid heightened economic uncertainty, with volatile oil prices from Middle East tensions clouding the inflation outlook.

Policymakers said a tighter stance was needed to anchor inflation expectations and contain second-round effects of the current supply shock. The inflation rate in Pakistan quickened for the third month to 7.3% in March, the highest since August 2024, breaching the central bank’s 5–7% target range for the first time since October 2024, driven by energy costs, currency pressures, and structural supply constraints.

The MPC assessed that the current supply shock may push inflation to double digits in the coming months before it starts to ease subsequently.

However, inflation is expected to stay above the upper bound of the target range for most of FY27.



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Pakistan Hikes Policy Rate in Surprise Move
The State Bank of Pakistan raised its benchmark policy rate by 100 bps to 11.5% on April 27, 2026, surprising analysts who expected it to remain steady at 10.5%. This marked the first rate hike since June 2023, amid heightened economic uncertainty, with volatile oil prices from Middle East tensions clouding the inflation outlook. Policymakers said a tighter stance was needed to anchor inflation expectations and contain second-round effects of the current supply shock. The inflation rate in Pakistan quickened for the third month to 7.3% in March, the highest since August 2024, breaching the central bank’s 5–7% target range for the first time since October 2024, driven by energy costs, currency pressures, and structural supply constraints. The MPC assessed that the current supply shock may push inflation to double digits in the coming months before it starts to ease subsequently. However, inflation is expected to stay above the upper bound of the target range for most of FY27.
2026-04-27
Pakistan Keeps Policy Rate Steady at 10.5%
The State Bank of Pakistan kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 10.5% in March, as expected, extending the pause in its easing cycle. Policymakers cited heightened economic uncertainty as oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Pakistan remains particularly vulnerable to rising energy costs due to its heavy reliance on imported fuel. A prolonged energy shock could also pressure the rupee and complicate the country’s commitments under its IMF stabilization program. Analysts warn the recent fuel price increase could push inflation to around 9.25% in the second quarter, with headline inflation having risen to 7% in February, the highest since October 2024. Meanwhile, the government’s 4.2% GDP growth target for the fiscal year ending July is becoming increasingly challenging amid the Middle East crisis, severe monsoon floods that displaced roughly three million people, and supply-chain disruptions linked to clashes with Afghanistan.
2026-03-09
Pakistan Holds Policy Rate at 10.5%
The State Bank of Pakistan kept its benchmark policy rate at 10.5% in January, surprising markets that had expected a cut to 10% following two reductions last year. Headline inflation eased to a three-month low of 5.6% in December, remaining within the 5–7% target range, with the central bank projecting inflation to stay within this range through FY26 and FY27. Economic activity remained robust, with Q1-FY26 GDP rising 3.7% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in the same period last year, driven primarily by industrial and agricultural sectors. GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 3.75–4.75%. On the external front, the current account deficit widened, but steady workers’ remittances and resilient ICT exports helped contain pressures. FX reserves have been building and are expected to exceed $18 billion by FY26-end. The MPC noted the current rate supports price stability and growth, highlighting coordination with fiscal policy and structural reforms.
2026-01-26