Latest News Stream - Full Year Gdp Growth

The UK economy is forecast to grow by 1% in 2027, according to the latest projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), presented by Chancellor John Healey in his first budget statement to Parliament. The forecast marks a downgrade from the OBR’s previous estimate of 1.6%, published in March before the outbreak of the Iran war. Growth is expected to accelerate to 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031. The latest projections compare with the OBR’s previous forecasts of 1.6% growth in 2028 and 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2026 was revised slightly higher to 1.2%, up from 1.1% previously.

The People's Bank of China pledged to roll out “practical and effective” policy support promptly, while avoiding signals of major easing. In its quarterly monetary policy report released Wednesday, the central bank said it will intensify countercyclical adjustments, boost domestic demand, and channel more resources toward technological innovation and smaller firms. It vowed to conduct overnight reverse repo operations more frequently to fine-tune short-term rates, and urged that loans and bond financing be assessed together rather than focusing solely on credit growth. The PBoC noted that capital-heavy sectors like real estate and infrastructure have cooled, while emerging “new productive forces” are more asset-light, reducing traditional loan demand. It also stressed that global monetary recalibration is not a “drastic U-turn,” warning that history shows rapid tightening after massive easing tends to deliver sharper shocks to markets.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement on Sunday that it will continue monetary support in the second half of 2026, pledging to maintain ample liquidity and adjust policy tools as needed. The statement followed a work meeting led by Governor Pan Gongsheng and echoed last week’s Politburo call to accelerate infrastructure spending. The central bank also vowed to “steadily promote the high-level opening of the financial market,” advancing cooperation on financial infrastructure, expanding liquidity management and risk-hedging tools, and facilitating yuan-denominated panda bond issuance by overseas institutions. It also highlighted plans to strengthen Shanghai’s role in cross-border finance and offshore services, consolidate Hong Kong’s position as a global offshore yuan hub, and support the resolution of debt risks at local government financing vehicles while promoting their market-oriented transformation.

China’s Politburo on Thursday signaled it will continue leaning on existing policy tools rather than rolling out sweeping stimulus, stressing the need to “fully use” current measures. While no major easing appears imminent, leaders pledged stronger countercyclical adjustments and “pragmatic, effective” steps when appropriate, without offering a timetable. Fiscal spending and bond proceeds will be accelerated to spur demand and optimize supply, alongside support for breakthroughs in advanced technologies, future industries, and emerging sectors. The leadership also reiterated commitments to stabilize property, safeguard jobs, tackle local debt risks, reform smaller banks, and deepen capital-market changes. The cautious stance was widely expected after Beijing trimmed its 2026 growth target to 4.5%–5%, even as Q2 delivered the weakest quarterly expansion in more than three years.

Japan’s Cabinet Office on Thursday trimmed its fiscal 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions that are weighing on household spending and corporate earnings. The mid-year outlook sees a rebound in fiscal 2027, with growth accelerating to 1.1% on stronger consumption and investment. Private consumption growth for fiscal 2026 was cut to 0.9% from 1.3%, while capital expenditure is now expected to rise 2.3%, below the earlier 2.8% projection. Inflation is projected at 2.2%, up from 1.9%, reflecting elevated energy costs. Despite persistent price pressures, nominal wages are forecast to climb 3.1% annually through fiscal 2027, keeping real wage growth positive. The Cabinet Office also expects the primary budget balance to swing back to a JPY 1.4 trillion surplus in fiscal 2027, though the government has placed less emphasis on the balance as its main fiscal discipline measure.

China's cabinet, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, vowed to ensure the economy achieves its full-year growth target after second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, the weakest pace in more than three years. While resilient exports have helped cushion the slowdown, they have not fully offset persistent domestic weakness, leaving first-half growth at 4.7%, near the lower end of Beijing's 4-1/2%-5.0% annual target. To bolster the recovery, the State Council stressed maximizing the efficient use of fiscal funds and accelerating policy implementation. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Politburo meetings later this month, where authorities are expected to unveil more targeted stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption, support fixed-asset investment, and stabilize economic growth.

The Indian real gross domestic product expanded by 7.7% in the 2026 financial year, revised slightly higher from the second estimate of 7.6%, to mark the sharpest growth rate since FY2022, which marked the rebound form the Covid pandemic. The data consolidated India as the fastest growing G20 country, holding its robust momentum despite the wave of tariffs from the United States, higher energy costs from sourcing oil away from Russia, and the war in the Middle East, which pressured the rupee and triggered a capital flight away from the country.

New Zealand will exercise restraint on routine expenditure in its 2026 budget while lifting capital outlays to strengthen infrastructure, defence, and energy resilience, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said in a pre-budget speech on Wednesday. The plan marks a pivot toward fiscal repair alongside investment in critical assets amid a sluggish economy, aging infrastructure, and rising geopolitical risks. The government is targeting a return to surplus, excluding the state accident insurer, by 2028/29. Luxon said “fiscal repair balanced with careful capital investment” would define the budget, reaffirming debt reduction toward 40% of GDP. He stressed that the country could no longer rely solely on geography, alliances, or renewables to shield it from global shocks, reiterating that defence spending will rise to 2% of GDP.

China will step up state backing to expand capacity and upgrade quality in the service sector, as it deepens reforms, taps technology, and broadens opening-up to drive growth. The National Development and Reform Commission said Tuesday that Beijing will also sustain support for higher-end manufacturing and efforts to improve living standards. New guidelines aim to grow the service sector to CNY 100 trillion by 2030, focusing on narrowing supply-demand gaps, expanding service provision, and fostering new growth drivers, particularly in services trade. Further, authorities will strengthen producer services through an “AI plus software” push to spur new models and upgrade industrial software. In consumer services, the focus will be on richer cultural and tourism offerings, new consumption scenarios, and tighter regulation to meet rising demand.

China posted a solid start to 2026, with key activity indicators exceeding expectations in the combined January–February period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial output and retail sales both grew faster than forecast, highlighting momentum in manufacturing and consumer spending. Fixed-asset investment also surprised on the upside, rising 1.8% against market calls for a 0.4% decline. Meantime, the surveyed jobless rate averaged 5.3%, unchanged from the same period a year earlier, suggesting broadly stable labor market conditions. Despite the upbeat data, the agency cautioned that challenges remain. It warned of intensifying external pressures, elevated geopolitical risks, and persistent domestic structural issues. Some enterprises continue to face operational strains amid the country’s economic transition. The statistics bureau stressed that policymakers must balance sustaining growth momentum with strengthening resilience in an uncertain global environment.

China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, the lowest level goal since 1991, and after keeping an “around 5%” target for the past three years. During the opening of the annual legislative session Thursday, Premier Li Qiang said Beijing aims to sustain momentum after the economy met its 2025 target, helped by resilient exports despite trade tensions with the U.S. To underpin growth, Beijing will keep the fiscal deficit at 4.0% of GDP and set a consumer inflation target of around 2.0%, signaling efforts to ward off deflation after prices were flat last year amid weak demand. Stabilizing employment remains a priority, with plans to create 12 million urban jobs and cap the jobless rate at 5.5%, unchanged from 2025. In addition, local governments will be allowed to issue CNY 4.4 trillion in special-purpose bonds to fund investment projects. At the same time, CNY 1.3 trillion of ultralong treasury bonds will also be issued, matching last year’s quota to reinforce fiscal support.

Brazil’s GDP grew 2.3% in 2025, the lowest full-year rate since 2020’s 3.3% pandemic contraction. Electricity, gas, water, and waste management fell 0.4% due to worsening tariff flags versus 2024. Manufacturing declined slightly (-0.2%), weighed by lower coke, petroleum derivatives, metal products, and beverage output. Agriculture surged 11.7%, led by corn (23.6%) and soybean (14.6%) harvests, with livestock also contributing. All service (1.8%) sectors expanded, with information and communication up 6.5% the strongest gain. Industry rose 1.4%, driven by extractive industries (8.6%) on higher oil and gas output. Construction grew 0.5%, aided by rising real wages.

The Italian GDP expanded by 0.5% in real terms in 2025, slowing from the upwardly revised 0.8% growth rate in the previous year and in line with the preliminary estimates from earlier, according to Istat. It was the softest expansion since the Covid pandemic triggered a recession in 2020, and missing the Bank of Italy's latest expectations of a 0.6% increase. The GDP growth was supported by private consumption and gross fixed capital formation, while public expenditure was only marginally higher and changes in inventories contributed negatively to the GDP.

The Turkish economy expanded 3.6% in 2025, slightly below market expectations of 3.7%, compared with a revised 3.3% in 2024. Growth in fixed investment accelerated (7.0% vs 2.7% in 2024), while government spending bounced back (0.8% vs -0.8%). In contrast, household consumption eased (4.1% vs 4.3%), and net trade weighed on growth, as exports dropped (-0.3% vs 0.1%) while imports rebounded (4.9% vs -4.4%).