Morocco Maintains Policy Rate at 2.25%

The National Bank of Morocco left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% at its September 2026 meeting, marking a sixth consecutive hold and keeping borrowing costs at their lowest level since 2022. Policymakers stated that the impact of elevated energy prices remained limited, mitigated by subsidies on road transport and the continued maintenance of gas and electricity prices. As food prices declined, inflation remained low, averaging 0.3% during the first eight months of the year. Agricultural output is expected to rebound by 16% in 2026, while non-agricultural activity is forecast to slow to 3.1%. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to average 0.7% in 2026 before rising to 1.5% in 2027, driven by an acceleration in core inflation to 2.2% as the contraction in food prices is offset by higher imported inflation. Economic growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, amid a projected 7.6% contraction in agricultural output.

The National Bank of Morocco left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% at its June 23, 2026 meeting, marking a fifth consecutive decision to hold rates steady, as policymakers weighed ongoing supply-chain disruptions against improving economic conditions. Annual inflation eased to 1.2% in May, down from over a year high of 1.7%. However, energy and fuel prices surged 27.6% year-on-year, while rising imported inflation is expected to exert additional upward pressure on domestic prices. Nevertheless, inflation is projected to average 1.5% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Economic activity improved, supported by a recovery in agricultural output and consolidated growth in non-agricultural sectors. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to remain robust at 5.2%, although slightly below its previous forecast of 5.6%. Future monetary policy decisions will depend on the evolution of inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical developments, which continue to pose risks to the outlook.

The National Bank of Morocco left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% during its regular meeting on March 17, 2026, marking the fourth consecutive hold. Policymakers pointed to robust economic activity, contained inflation, and heightened global uncertainty as key factors behind the decision. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 4.8% in 2025, with growth expected to accelerate to 5.6% in 2026 mainly due to an anticipated pickup in agricultural output, before easing to 3.5% in 2027. Meanwhile, Morocco has recorded mild deflation since November, with prices falling 0.8% year-on-year in January, supported by strong agricultural output and lower fuel prices. But with temporary support fading and oil prices projected to increase, inflation is likely to rise gradually, remaining moderate at 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.