Mongolia Holds Key Policy Rate at 12.5%

2026-09-17 10:04 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

The Bank of Mongolia left its benchmark interest rate at 12.5% at its September 2026 meeting, after raising it by 50 basis points in August.

The decision came as annual inflation eased to 12.5% in August from the previous month, while core inflation edged down to 6.8%.

Inflation is expected to gradually decline from the second quarter of next year and return to the upper end of the target range by year-end.

Nevertheless, policymakers warned that higher fuel and global food prices resulting from the Middle East conflict, together with increased government spending and wages, could reignite inflationary pressures.

In particular, the outlook remains vulnerable to fiscal developments, as changes to this year’s budget and the approval of next year’s budget could materially affect the inflation trajectory.

Meanwhile, economic growth is expected to reach 7.7% in the first half of 2026, supported mainly by the mining and transport sectors, while other sectors remain relatively weak.



News Stream
Mongolia Holds Key Policy Rate at 12.5%
The Bank of Mongolia left its benchmark interest rate at 12.5% at its September 2026 meeting, after raising it by 50 basis points in August. The decision came as annual inflation eased to 12.5% in August from the previous month, while core inflation edged down to 6.8%. Inflation is expected to gradually decline from the second quarter of next year and return to the upper end of the target range by year-end. Nevertheless, policymakers warned that higher fuel and global food prices resulting from the Middle East conflict, together with increased government spending and wages, could reignite inflationary pressures. In particular, the outlook remains vulnerable to fiscal developments, as changes to this year’s budget and the approval of next year’s budget could materially affect the inflation trajectory. Meanwhile, economic growth is expected to reach 7.7% in the first half of 2026, supported mainly by the mining and transport sectors, while other sectors remain relatively weak.
2026-09-17
Central Bank of Mongolia Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
The central bank of Mongolia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 12% in June 2026, citing the current state of the economy, banking system, and financial markets, as well as domestic and external conditions and associated risks. Annual inflation has picked up in recent months, driven by rising fuel and food prices, reaching 11.2% in May. Looking ahead, increases in meat and fuel prices are expected to moderate gradually, with inflation projected to stabilise within the central bank’s 5% target range (±2 percentage points) over the medium term. However, upside risks to prices remain if supply-side pressures persist, including adverse seasonal conditions, animal diseases, and geopolitical uncertainties linked to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly if spillovers prove stronger than expected. Policymakers said future policy decisions will depend on developments in inflation, supply-side factors, and both domestic and external economic conditions.
2026-06-24
Central Bank of Mongolia Leaves Rates Steady
The Bank of Mongolia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 12% at its December 2025 meeting. Policymakers noted that planned wage increases next year are expected to put upward pressure on inflation, while inflation is projected to enter and stabilize within the target range in 2026. However, the central bank highlighted several upside risks to the inflation outlook, including the financing of government projects, developments in export revenues and the exchange rate, as well as weather conditions and supply-driven price pressures. Annual inflation stood at 8.2% in November, remaining above target. The Bank of Mongolia aims to keep inflation within a 5% target band, plus or minus 2 percentage points, from 2027 onward. The central bank also noted that global and Chinese growth prospects have improved, as the impact of US tariffs has proven smaller than initially anticipated. Despite the improvement in external conditions, uncertainty remains elevated.
2025-12-19