Lebanon | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.97 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.15 3.7 4 4.2 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10.25 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1402.71 -1800 -1272 -1244 -1237 -1700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 146.00 141 145 145 147 142 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1511.00 1490 1480 1460 1445 1280 [+]
Stock Market 1151.52 1140 1130 1120 1110 980 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.9 2.7 2.7 8.3 4.8 percent [+]
GDP 47.54 47.5 47.42 47.35 47.27 45.5 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 51664436.99 51271453 51063918 50856383 50648847 48477682 LBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 6983.70 6884 6842 6800 6759 7115 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12974.20 12800 12751 12713 12675 14063 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.97 6.7 percent [+]
Population 6.01 6.08 6.09 6.09 6.1 6.11 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.15 3.7 4 4.2 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.08 101 101 101 101 99.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.52 4.33 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 100.02 98.86 97.99 97.16 96.37 90.95 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 90.58 91.43 91.56 91.94 92.19 93.39 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10.25 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4810.10 4710 4706 4705 4703 4691 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 10394.30 10355 10355 10352 10350 10324 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 83808.10 84840 84994 85005 84966 84377 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 209422.00 213073 214856 216097 216946 217981 LBP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.93 6.23 6.37 6.5 6.63 7.55 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1402.71 -1800 -1272 -1244 -1237 -1700 USD Million [+]
Exports 217.47 222 220 218 216 202 USD Million [+]
Imports 1620.18 1499 1508 1487 1481 1400 USD Million [+]
Current Account 368.30 85.26 62.33 61.61 62.43 62.95 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -16.00 -20 -19 -19 -15.44 -17 percent [+]
External Debt 29805.00 29798 29779 29757 29736 29544 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 1319.80 1636 1765 1721 1729 1734 USD Million [+]
Remittances 1011.80 990 901 829 841 707 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 286.83 287 287 287 287 287 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.07 5.58 5.48 5.39 5.29 4.79 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1518.00 1560 1475 1450 1425 1970 Thousand [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 174.95 252 250 251 250 250 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 146.00 141 145 145 147 142 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.14 0.8 1.1 1.1 -6.6 5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -684304.00 -226901 -225425 -225115 -225052 -225036 LBP Million [+]
Government Spending 6533697.60 5991375 5891665 5791955 5692245 4869730 LBP Million [+]
Government Revenues 918386.00 1035774 1008554 981970 958000 833337 LBP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1602690.00 1405024 1369066 1336727 1307102 1129049 LBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2239.40 2053 2008 1964 1920 1687 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 101228.00 101939 102389 102680 102855 102615 LBP Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 46.00 49.2 46.69 46.81 46.86 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 126.00 123 122 121 121 111 [+]
Electricity Production 1528.00 1383 1367 1357 1347 1264 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Coincident Index 304.00 305 302 302 301 309 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.84 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.77 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 105.00 102 102 102 102 91 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 29 29 29 29 29 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 124 123 122 121 110 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Spending 44444718.94 43864877 43588612 43312348 43036083 41272622 LBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.81 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.79 0.77 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 11 11 11 10.02 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.50 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]