Lebanon - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.7 6.7 6.85 6.7 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 5.55 5.3 5 4.8 4.5 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10.25 8 8 percent
Balance of Trade -5575.08 -2136 -3259 -2875 -2100 -1700 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 146.00 145 145 145 145 142 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1505.50
1521 1531 1542 1552 1594
Stock Market 1173.39
points
1146 1121 1097 1074 902
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7
GDP 47.54
USD Billion
47.72 47.65 47.57 47.5 44.4
GDP Constant Prices 64054700.00
LBP Million
55656591 59763523 63870454 67977385 65174916
GDP per capita 6983.70
USD
6795 6825 6854 6323 7115
GDP per capita PPP 12974.20
USD
12730 12750 12769 13070 14063
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80
percent
6.7 6.7 6.85 6.7 6.7
Population 6.01
Million
6.03 6.05 6.07 6.08 6.13
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.55
percent
5.3 5 4.8 4.5 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.19
Index Points
106 106 106 105 103
Inflation Rate Mom 0.05
percent
0.06 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Food Inflation 3.40
percent
3.42 3.57 3.72 3.83 4.18
CPI Housing Utilities 103.30
Index Points
102 102 101 99.84 92.53
CPI Transportation 93.16
Index Points
93.53 93.33 93.49 93.56 93.98
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10.25 8 8
Money Supply M0 4889.00
LBP Billion
4694 4720 4716 4715 4700
Money Supply M1 10654.60
LBP Billion
10574 10553 10547 10544 10510
Money Supply M2 79112.90
LBP Billion
78954 78842 78754 78680 77874
Money Supply M3 208613.00
LBP Billion
208692 208879 209001 209048 207814
Deposit Interest Rate 5.93
percent
6.34 6.31 6.27 6.23 7.89
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -5575.08
USD Million
-2136 -3259 -2875 -2100 -1700
Exports 250.78
USD Million
237 236 234 232 211
Imports 5825.86
USD Million
2398 3511 3153 3280 2773
Current Account 853.80
USD Million
126 78.79 75.29 70.09 63.75
Current Account to GDP -16.00
percent
-19 -19 -19 -19 -17
External Debt 30431.80
USD Million
30346 30347 30328 30307 30057
Capital Flows 2869.90
USD Million
1896 1695 1771 1762 1755
Remittances 968.80
USD Million
935 898 894 887 745
Gold Reserves 286.83
Tonnes
287 287 287 287 287
Terrorism Index 5.64
5.43 5.33 5.24 5.15 4.69
Tourist Arrivals 1518.00
Thousand
1500 1500 1500 1690 1970
Foreign Direct Investment 265.64
USD Million
248 250 249 249 249
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 146.00
percent
145 145 145 145 142
Government Budget 0.14
percent of GDP
1.1 1.1 -4.04 1.1 5
Government Budget Value -981757.00
LBP Million
-232293 -229259 -229120 -229126 -229129
Government Spending 6533697.60
LBP Million
6327635 6215548 6103461 5991375 4885639
Government Revenues 697097.00
LBP Million
895226 884281 869647 857697 797190
Fiscal Expenditure 1678854.00
LBP Million
1533555 1490950 1454075 1420363 1165850
Military Expenditure 2239.40
USD Million
2076 2068 2060 2053 1656
Government Debt 105184.00
LBP Billion
108644 110737 112265 113363 115237
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Internet Speed 2056.08
KBps
1986 1928 1828 1780 1253
IP Addresses 179674.00
IP
171139 167354 165367 164601 151157
Manufacturing Pmi 47.10
46.9 46.83 46.9 49.5 51
Ease of Doing Business 133.00
129 130 130 131 125
Electricity Production 1303.00
Gigawatt-hour
1243 1247 1234 1223 1114
Coincident Index 323.90
Index Points
314 313 313 306 309
Competitiveness Index 3.84
Points
3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.77
Competitiveness Rank 105.00
102 102 102 102 100
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 29 28
Corruption Rank 136.00
123 124 124 124 110
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 44444718.94
LBP Million
41442544 42249988 43057433 43864877 40780474
Gasoline Prices 0.87
USD/Liter
0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.82
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 10 11 11
Social Security Rate 23.50
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50
percent
21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 56.02
mm
104 19.36 0.81 70.81 50.15
Temperature 8.19
celsius
10.27 19.87 25.13 15.35 18.04