Lebanon | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.3 3.8 3.7 4 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1178.17 -1500 -1319 -1800 -1322 -1700 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 146.00 141 141 141 145 142 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1505.70 1520 1540 1580 1570 1810 [+]
Stock Market 1155.92 1160 1150 1110 1130 938 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.7 4.6 percent [+]
GDP 47.10 47.44 47.85 48.26 48.49 51.01 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 51664436.99 51159449 51366214 51572980 51482031 50972085 LBP Million [+]
GDP per capita 7045.50 7226 7098 6971 7013 7115 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13089.01 12800 12800 12800 12717 14063 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.80 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 percent [+]
Population 4.65 4.63 4.67 4.71 4.72 4.94 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.3 3.8 3.7 4 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.77 99.92 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.05 0.15 0.3 0.22 0.25 0.24 percent [+]
Food Inflation 5.34 5.18 5 5.03 5.03 5.03 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 89.22 88.55 88.76 88.76 88.74 88.74 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 97.99 98.02 98.03 98.03 98.03 98.03 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 4369.60 4360 4439 4511 4580 5326 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 9899.50 9973 10144 10308 10473 12238 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 82599.30 82906 83095 83295 83424 83846 LBP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 203869.00 206511 210174 213830 217411 252529 LBP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.06 6.07 6.07 6.08 5.98 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1178.17 -1500 -1319 -1800 -1322 -1700 USD Million [+]
Exports 235.38 245 246 245 246 246 USD Million [+]
Imports 1413.55 1576 1555 1576 1571 1572 USD Million [+]
Current Account -320.90 224 71.38 167 143 148 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -16.00 -20 -20 -20 -19 -17 percent [+]
External Debt 29873.30 29946 30248 30539 30824 33601 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 2606.10 2294 2429 2411 2383 2423 USD Million [+]
Remittances 1274.20 883 1014 1070 988 990 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 286.83 287 287 287 287 287 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 6.07 6.09 6.03 5.98 5.97 5.89 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1518.00 1540 1562 1560 1570 1970 Thousand [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 297.42 226 217 220 219 219 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 146.00 141 141 141 145 142 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.14 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -773875.00 -521293 -477124 -495273 -489974 -491585 LBP Million [+]
Government Spending 6533697.60 6540639 6409039 6277440 6273450 6278255 LBP Million [+]
Government Revenues 1100546.00 1137135 1131098 1124721 1123033 1121995 LBP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1874421.00 1720736 1693182 1708254 1706186 1708124 LBP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2239.40 2181 2175 2168 2150 2097 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 99860.00 101235 102659 104082 105499 120619 LBP Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 46.60 48.7 47.06 49.2 47.06 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 126.00 123 122 120 120 116 [+]
Electricity Production 1170.00 1143 1135 1135 1134 1134 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 130 133 136 136 136 [+]
Coincident Index 306.20 304 300 305 300 309 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.84 3.85 3.85 3.85 4.01 3.81 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 101.00 101 101 101 115 116 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 44444718.94 42757107 43572847 44388587 44247375 43756568 LBP Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 23.50 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2 percent [+]