Lebanon - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.7 6.77 6.7 6.82 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 5.80 5 4.8 4.5 4.5 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 8 8 8 percent
Balance of Trade -1386.33 -1969 -1679 -1728 -1695 -1706 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 148.00 145 145 145 143 142 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1505.00
 1520 1529 1539 1549 1589
Stock Market 1128.45
points		 1160 1135 1110 1086 994
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent		 2.7 2.7 2.7 3 1
GDP 47.54
USD Billion		 47.75 47.67 47.6 46.1 45.1
GDP Constant Prices 64054700.00
LBP Million		 65784177 65784177 66507803 65976341 69389586
GDP per capita 6983.70
USD		 6991 6323 6323 6819 7115
GDP per capita PPP 12974.20
USD		 12987 13104 13070 13606 14063
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent		 6.7 6.77 6.7 6.82 6.7
Population 6.01
Million		 6.08 6.1 6.11 6.14 6.47
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.80
percent		 5 4.8 4.5 4.5 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.56
Index Points		 105 106 109 110 117
Inflation Rate Mom 0.54
percent		 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Food Inflation 3.94
percent		 4.42 4.38 4.36 4.36 4.36
CPI Housing Utilities 103.65
Index Points		 103 105 108 108 116
CPI Transportation 96.46
Index Points		 93.5 94.93 96.24 99.24 104
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 8 8 8
Money Supply M0 4569.30
LBP Billion		 4651 4644 4644 4642 4623
Money Supply M1 10298.90
LBP Billion		 10326 10293 10261 10235 10245
Money Supply M2 79763.50
LBP Billion		 81659 82037 82478 81865 82158
Money Supply M3 208793.00
LBP Billion		 207184 207611 207718 207576 207616
Deposit Interest Rate 6.91
percent		 6.14 6.11 6.09 6.15 7.04
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1386.33
USD Million		 -1969 -1679 -1728 -1695 -1706
Exports 282.87
USD Million		 267 219 227 263 250
Imports 1669.20
USD Million		 2235 1898 1963 1958 1956
Current Account 236.90
USD Million		 -290 209 -143 -185 -78.7
Current Account to GDP -18.00
percent		 -19 -19 -19 -18 -17
External Debt 30380.80
USD Million		 30539 30520 30500 30479 30250
Capital Flows 3492.80
USD Million		 2870 2870 2870 2870 2870
Remittances 701.00
USD Million		 969 969 969 969 969
Gold Reserves 286.80
Tonnes		 287 287 287 287 287
Terrorism Index 5.64
 5.33 5.08 4.83 4.91 5.92
Tourist Arrivals 1688.00
Thousand 		1550 1575 1690 1575 1970
Foreign Direct Investment 172.99
USD Million		 178 178 178 178 178
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 148.00
percent		 145 145 145 143 142
Government Budget 9.28
percent of GDP		 1.1 -4.04 1.1 -5.35 5
Government Budget Value -528243.00
LBP Million		 -696418 -681877 -694109 -689738 -690016
Government Spending 9654240.00
LBP Million		 9914904 9914904 10023968 9943867 10458307
Government Revenues 1842755.00
LBP Million		 1359855 1287873 1295946 1294085 1297031
Fiscal Expenditure 2370998.00
LBP Million		 2056273 1969750 1994349 1983824 1987047
Military Expenditure 2368.40
USD Million		 2176 2199 2221 2203 1987
Government Debt 104500.00
LBP Billion		 102911 102534 102302 102157 101924
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Internet Speed 2056.08
KBps		 2249 2220 2239 2247 2245
IP Addresses 179674.00
IP		 165968 162650 160642 158813 139779
Manufacturing Pmi 46.20
 46.3 46.44 49.5 46.53 51
Ease of Doing Business 133.00
 130 130 131 131 125
Electricity Production 1254.00
Gigawatt-hour		 1187 1446 1229 1370 1291
Coincident Index 309.40
Index Points		 308 308 306 308 309
Competitiveness Index 3.84
Points		 3.84 3.84 3.84 3.84 3.84
Competitiveness Rank 105.00
 102 102 102 93 100
Corruption Index 28.00
Points		 28 28 28 28 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
 130 131 132 133 122
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Spending 57362200.00
LBP Million		 45644726 45644726 46146818 45778061 48146360
Gasoline Prices 0.89
USD/Liter		 0.8 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.47
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 10 11
Social Security Rate 23.50
percent		 23.5 23.5 23.5 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50
percent		 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent		 2 2 2 2 2
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 56.02
mm		 19.36 0.81 70.81 105 50.15
Temperature 8.19
celsius		 19.87 25.13 15.35 10.29 18.04