Lebanon - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.30 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 7.57 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.2 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 8 percent
Balance of Trade -2100.04 -1635 -1646 -1645 -1645 -1645 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 149.00 145 145 143 143 142 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1512.49
1511 1514 1517 1520 1532
Stock Market 980.01
points
991 985 979 973 948
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.7 2.7 3 1.2 1
GDP 51.84
USD Billion
52.9 52.9 54.2 54.2 58.9
GDP Constant Prices 64054700.00
LBP Million
65784177 65784177 65976341 64823356 68634605
GDP per capita 7197.60
USD
7234 7234 7400 7400 7522
GDP per capita PPP 13367.60
USD
13487 13487 13606 13606 14063
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15643600.00
LBP Million
15085219 15286843 15397042 15507241 15675081
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.30
percent
6.3 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.7
Population 6.09
Million
6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.27
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 7.57
percent
8.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.96
Index Points
109 113 114 116 132
Inflation Rate Mom -0.22
percent
0.46 0.41 0.46 0.47 0.47
Food Inflation 5.96
percent
5.85 5.89 5.91 5.91 5.9
CPI Housing Utilities 107.06
Index Points
108 111 112 116 131
CPI Transportation 99.11
Index Points
97.92 99.74 103 108 117
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 8
Money Supply M0 4857.30
LBP Billion
4956 5042 5124 5209 6022
Money Supply M1 11455.00
LBP Billion
11592 11821 12054 12284 14551
Money Supply M2 80767.80
LBP Billion
80560 80614 80526 80471 80325
Money Supply M3 212335.00
LBP Billion
213202 214510 215660 216765 225752
Deposit Interest Rate 6.91
percent
6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 4.91
Loans To Banks 36502.20
LBP Billion
42658 51109 59442 67659 143769
Interbank Rate 5.00
percent
3.85 3.72 3.7 3.7 3.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 198154.00
LBP Billion
202020 207956 213880 219750 275682
Banks Balance Sheet 356244.20
LBP Billion
363440 367187 365867 360647 316457
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2100.04
USD Million
-1635 -1646 -1645 -1645 -1645
Exports 218.06
USD Million
258 258 258 258 258
Imports 2318.10
USD Million
1894 1905 1903 1903 1903
Current Account -548.90
USD Million
-140 -254 -128 -183 -172
Current Account to GDP -18.00
percent
-19 -19 -18 -18 -17
External Debt 35677.60
USD Million
35565 36263 36958 37641 43852
Capital Flows 3492.80
USD Million
2597 2567 2644 2649 2651
Remittances 701.00
USD Million
807 798 835 846 834
Gold Reserves 286.80
Tonnes
287 287 287 287 287
Terrorism Index 5.64
5.08 4.83 4.91 4.98 5.92
Tourist Arrivals 441674.00
350800 1690 345900 343600 1970
Foreign Direct Investment 202.80
USD Million
212 211 211 211 211
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 149.00
percent
145 145 143 143 142
Government Budget -7.31
percent of GDP
-6.65 1.1 -7.1 -7.73 5
Government Budget Value -53077.00
LBP Million
-716429 -664690 -664873 -664393 -672365
Government Spending 9654240.00
LBP Million
9914904 9914904 9943867 9770091 10344517
Government Revenues 1629424.00
LBP Million
1330084 1330847 1317337 1316898 1316100
Fiscal Expenditure 1682501.00
LBP Million
2046513 1989384 1982210 1981290 1988465
Military Expenditure 2368.40
USD Million
2456 2430 2418 2406 2439
Government Debt 108841.00
LBP Billion
111206 113023 114830 116629 134284
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Internet Speed 2056.08
KBps
2220 2239 2247 2236 2245
IP Addresses 179674.00
IP
162650 160642 158813 156466 139779
Manufacturing Pmi 45.60
45.8 46.8 47 47.3 51
Ease of Doing Business 133.00
134 136 136 137 143
Electricity Production 1254.00
Gigawatt-hour
1207 1222 1218 1220 1220
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 28 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
139 141 142 142 142
Coincident Index 298.00
Index Points
309 306 308 308 309
Competitiveness Index 3.84
Points
3.86 3.86 3.76 3.73 3.81
Competitiveness Rank 105.00
108 108 113 115 113
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 57362200.00
LBP Million
58910979 58910979 59083066 58050546 61463592
Private Sector Credit 83704.20
LBP Billion
83640 83577 83571 83570 83570
Gasoline Prices 0.93
USD/Liter
0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.63
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 10.75 11 11
Social Security Rate 23.50
percent
23.5 23.5 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50
percent
21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 56.02
mm
0.81 70.81 105 44.84 50.15
Temperature 8.19
celsius
25.13 15.35 10.29 24.39 18.04