Kenya - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.50 11 11 10.5 10.5 10 percent
Inflation Rate 4.04 4.5 4.9 5 5.3 6.5 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 9 9 9 percent
Balance of Trade -99822.00 -102802 -69594 -102716 -104315 -63421 Million KES
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 60 60 63 63 65 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 100.85
101 101 101 101 102
Stock Market 2832.48
points
3227 3201 3176 3150 3051
Government Bond 10y 12.57
percent
13.44 13.74 14.04 14.35 15.65
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent
1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70
percent
5.6 5.8 5.9 6 6.8
GDP 74.94
USD Billion
78.32 79.2 88.2 88.2 90.6
GDP Constant Prices 1171676.00
KES Million
1162673 1216849 1240805 1185997 1380170
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1461256.00
KES Million
1272477 1546009 1547470 1312087 1753508
GDP per capita 1169.34
USD
1205 1191 1220 1220 1240
GDP per capita PPP 2993.03
USD
3032 3047 3121 3121 3173
GDP From Agriculture 308916.00
Million KES
216787 197322 327142 283102 223806
GDP From Construction 61251.00
Million KES
64992 73490 64865 65909 83353
GDP From Manufacturing 116070.00
KES Million
112597 110154 122918 120145 124938
GDP From Mining 13313.00
KES Million
12468 13165 14098 11945 14932
GDP From Public Administration 43131.00
KES Million
42041 45319 45676 52117 51402
GDP From Services 24797.00
KES Million
26231 28594 26260 26547 32431
GDP From Transport 76595.00
KES Million
83904 91940 81114 82397 104280
GDP From Utilities 29665.00
KES Million
29187 28861 31415 32507 32735
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.50
percent
11 11 10.5 10.5 10
Population 46.60
Million
48 48 49 49 50
Wages High Skilled 63500.00
KES/Month
63500 63500 65900 65900 68000
Wages Low Skilled 20000.00
KES/Month
20000 20000 23100 23100 24100
Living Wage Family 43000.00
KES/Month
43000 43000 44000 43000 44000
Living Wage Individual 24500.00
KES/Month
24500 24500 24500 24500 24500
Minimum Wages 13572.00
KES/Month
13572 13572 13572 15036 16724
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.04
percent
4.5 4.9 5 5.3 6.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 192.18
Index Points
192 192 200 204 216
Food Inflation -1.15
percent
1 2 2.5 2.7 3.5
Producer Prices 120.20
Index points
123 123 123 124 128
Producer Prices Change 0.65
percent
3.1 3.2 3.1 3.03 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.31
percent
0.53 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.86
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Interbank Rate 4.75
percent
4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
Money Supply M1 1445.86
KES Billion
1463 1493 1523 1552 1838
Money Supply M2 2691.51
KES Billion
2712 2763 2814 2864 3353
Money Supply M3 3258992.00
KES Million
3339517 3417250 3492033 3566143 4290999
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11926.10
USD Million
11279 11366 11382 11371 11373
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70
percent
7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 864543.00
KES Million
876842 865789 876881 876881 903845
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -99822.00
Million KES
-102802 -69594 -102716 -104315 -63421
Exports 52885.00
Million KES
53830 60470 53653 52052 77340
Imports 152707.00
million KES
156632 130064 156369 156366 140761
Current Account -4873.60
USD Million
-4837 -4828 -4824 -4822 -4820
Current Account to GDP -5.90
percent
-6.5 -7 -7.7 -7.7 -6
External Debt 2512.43
KES Billion
2727 2824 2921 3016 3930
Capital Flows -5228.10
USD Million
-5064 -3524 -5185 -5180 -2154
Remittances 266186.58
USD Thousand
264063 280036 295688 310906 441119
Gold Reserves 0.02
Tonnes
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Terms Of Trade 75.00
Index points
81.87 81.87 80.5 80.5 79.39
Terrorism Index 6.17
5.89 5.8 5.68 5.57 4.43
Tourist Arrivals 76608.00
77800 73402 76900 76900 80402
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00
KES Million
50010 55044 50514 45984 24296
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
60 60 63 63 65
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-8.28 -8.56 -8.74 -8.91 -9.68
Government Budget Value -638832.00
KES million
-1084494 -1083872 -1240497 -1192399 -1169925
Government Spending 710508.00
KES Million
673955 751717 752428 694934 852610
Government Revenues 1567.29
KES Billion
798 750 913 876 900
Military Expenditure 909.12
USD Million
924 910 908 905 882
Fiscal Expenditure 2206.12
KES Billion
1085291 997937 1241410 1193276 1170825
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Internet Speed 12160.37
KBps
13862 14112 14353 14585 16506
IP Addresses 500853.00
IP
-1003877 -1151587 -1387859 -1612784 -2884853
Manufacturing Pmi 54.60
54.3 53.6 53.1 52.91 53.7
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60
60.27 60.8 60.28 60.28 62
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
27 28 28 27 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
146 146 146 145 145
Ease of Doing Business 80.00
75 75 73 72 102
Electricity Production 955.20
Gigawatt-hour
910 915 914 913 914
Car Production 425.00
477 455 464 461 462
Car Registrations 24232.00
23166 23578 23179 23179 26351
Cement Production 454322.00
Tonnes
467443 595547 467660 457964 615645
Competitiveness Index 3.98
Points
3.93 3.93 3.88 3.87 3.95
Competitiveness Rank 91.00
94 94 92 91 91
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Bank Lending Rate 13.49
percent
13.49 13.49 13.49 13.49 13.49
Personal Savings 11.00
percent
12.63 11.1 12.66 12.46 11.7
Gasoline Prices 1.13
USD/Liter
1.15 1.09 1.03 0.97 0.77
Disposable Personal Income 7128.70
KES Billion
7452 7503 7583 7663 8339
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 20616.83
KSH Million
20253 29940 20209 20209 33560
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 69.94
mm
30.51 67.73 39.32 64.2 57.2
Temperature 26.52
celsius
23.11 24.16 25.31 24.99 24.71