Kenya - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.00 11.12 11.05 10.97 10.9 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.83 4.7 5.8 7.2 8 10.5 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 9 percent
Balance of Trade -87276.00 -90117 -89594 -88498 -69594 -63421 Million KES
Government Debt to GDP 55.20 60 60 56.75 60 65 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 101.30
103 103 103 103 103
Stock Market 3703.28
points
3611 3513 3419 3326 2672
Government Bond 10y 12.88
percent
13.67 14.21 14.78 15.36 17.94
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.40
percent
5.8 5.5 5.6 6.5 6.8
GDP 70.53
USD Billion
68.6 70.2 71.8 73.4 82
GDP Constant Prices 1123623.00
KES Million
1119122 1115133 1110780 1106270 1052763
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60
KES Million
130589 97235 63881 30527 123876
GDP per capita 1143.10
USD
1134 1143 1151 1160 1153
GDP per capita PPP 2925.60
USD
2913 2934 2955 2976 3039
GDP From Agriculture 207970.00
Million KES
280284 270138 209301 182816 277000
GDP From Construction 61678.00
Million KES
61523 61490 61137 61150 60002
GDP From Manufacturing 112663.00
KES Million
112175 115160 113554 109830 111584
GDP From Mining 12232.00
KES Million
12174 11586 11960 11557 11314
GDP From Public Administration 41481.00
KES Million
41957 47575 41666 42367 42617
GDP From Services 25517.00
KES Million
24305 24806 25329 24954 24755
GDP From Transport 82253.00
KES Million
74851 77111 80373 79928 70700
GDP From Utilities 28133.00
KES Million
29033 28867 27515 28063 27480
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent
11.12 11.05 10.97 10.9 24
Population 48.46
Million
49.3 49.4 49.5 49.64 53.45
Wages High Skilled 63500.00
KES/Month
61444 61374 61304 63500 68000
Wages Low Skilled 20000.00
KES/Month
19224 19237 19250 20000 26500
Living Wage Family 43000.00
KES/Month
43000 43000 43000 43000 43000
Living Wage Individual 24500.00
KES/Month
24500 24500 24500 24500 24500
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.83
percent
4.7 5.8 7.2 8 10.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 185.47
Index Points
188 190 191 191 186
Food Inflation 4.71
percent
8.5 8.2 8 7.4 6.5
Producer Prices 119.03
Index points
118 118 118 124 126
Producer Prices Change 3.18
percent
6.9 5.4 4.6 3.2 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.32
percent
0.67 0.63 0.6 0.6 0.86
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 9
Interbank Rate 7.70
percent
8.8 9.48 9.96 10.32 11.47
Money Supply M1 1397.26
KES Billion
1391 1390 1389 1388 1372
Money Supply M2 2538.20
KES Billion
2554 2565 2571 2573 2538
Money Supply M3 3028141.17
KES Million
3056803 3076135 3088136 3094825 3055904
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9694.40
USD Million
9662 9631 9612 9591 9349
Deposit Interest Rate 8.70
percent
9.16 9.07 8.97 8.88 9.15
Central Bank Balance Sheet 934656.00
KES Million
930299 928904 927513 865789 903845
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -87276.00
Million KES
-90117 -89594 -88498 -69594 -63421
Exports 50875.00
Million KES
49527 49295 49156 60470 77340
Imports 138151.00
million KES
140713 140259 139573 130064 140761
Current Account -5157.40
USD Million
-5083 -5022 -4962 -4903 -4247
Current Account to GDP -5.20
percent
-6.5 -6.5 -6.36 -6.5 -6
External Debt 2349.28
KES Billion
2384 2388 2386 2382 2300
Capital Flows -5693.10
USD Million
-7061 -6066 -5064 -3524 -2154
Remittances 203819.83
USD Thousand
195071 193833 193272 192765 186890
Gold Reserves 0.02
Tonnes
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Terms Of Trade 79.00
Index points
79.72 80.09 80.45 80.82 79.39
Terrorism Index 6.17
6.09 5.99 5.89 5.8 4.43
Tourist Arrivals 87440.00
83400 82700 82300 73402 80402
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00
KES Million
39943 44977 50010 55044 24296
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 55.20
percent
60 60 56.75 60 65
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-7.17 -6.96 -6.76 -6.55 -6.25
Government Budget Value -64586.00
KES million
-73945 -72592 -72126 -72005 -71970
Government Spending 928.08
KES Billion
601 469 420 904 1140
Government Revenues 721.02
KES Billion
473 380 342 750 900
Military Expenditure 907.60
USD Million
898 897 896 896 846
Fiscal Expenditure 513313.00
KES Billion
408266 392281 385991 383525 381935
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Internet Speed 12160.37
KBps
15198 16136 13873 14742 6692
IP Addresses 500853.00
IP
-18519 9469 62424 129931 725631
Manufacturing Pmi 52.90
45.84 50.85 49.59 52.6 53.7
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60
59.29 59.33 59.34 60.8 62
Ease of Doing Business 80.00
80 79 79 103 102
Car Production 377.00
461 478 489 496 514
Car Registrations 18889.00
19053 18410 17867 23578 26351
Cement Production 502809.00
Tonnes
496993 495628 494346 595547 615645
Competitiveness Index 3.98
Points
3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.9
Competitiveness Rank 91.00
97 97 97 97 97
Corruption Index 26.00
Points
25 25 25 25 23
Corruption Rank 145.00
139 141 142 144 136
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00
KES Million
2685868 2776942 2868016 2959090 4811593
Bank Lending Rate 13.71
percent
13.95 14.12 14.28 14.5 18
Personal Savings 11.00
percent
12.53 12.84 13.15 11.1 11.7
Gasoline Prices 1.01
USD/Liter
1 1 0.99 0.99 0.94
Disposable Personal Income 6559.17
KES Billion
6698 6890 7082 7274 10162
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Building Permits 20838.09
KSH Million
19528 19002 18533 29940 33560
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 69.94
mm
39.24 86.32 30.51 67.73 57.2
Temperature 26.52
celsius
25.26 24.17 23.11 24.16 24.71