Kenya - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.00 11.05 10.97 10.9 10.9 24 percent
Inflation Rate 4.18 4.5 4.2 4 4.5 10.5 percent
Interest Rate 9.50 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9 percent
Balance of Trade -104019.00 -99209 -96161 -69594 -96905 -63421 Million KES
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 60 60 60 63 65 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 100.20
101 101 101 101 101
Stock Market 3745.01
points
3733 3637 3543 3452 3109
Government Bond 10y 12.90
percent
13.46 14.09 14.75 15.45 18.57
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.40
percent
5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.8
GDP 70.53
USD Billion
71.35 73.32 75.3 88.2 92.1
GDP Constant Prices 1123623.00
KES Million
1152979 1155084 1195390 1173429 1360937
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1236835.00
KES Million
1270848 1271466 1354770 1306098 1542390
GDP per capita 1143.10
USD
1150 1205 1167 1220 1232
GDP per capita PPP 2925.60
USD
2944 2965 2986 3121 3152
GDP From Agriculture 207970.00
Million KES
274979 213793 199351 302341 226959
GDP From Construction 61678.00
Million KES
62908 63405 67901 60951 77304
GDP From Manufacturing 112663.00
KES Million
120047 115818 115855 122168 131900
GDP From Mining 12232.00
KES Million
11691 12574 12590 13908 14334
GDP From Public Administration 41481.00
KES Million
51167 42642 44487 43979 50648
GDP From Services 25517.00
KES Million
25733 26231 28169 25091 32070
GDP From Transport 82253.00
KES Million
80174 84556 89273 75945 101637
GDP From Utilities 28133.00
KES Million
31043 28921 28160 29111 32060
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.00
percent
11.05 10.97 10.9 10.9 24
Population 48.46
Million
49.4 49.5 49.64 50.01 54.73
Wages High Skilled 63500.00
KES/Month
63500 63500 63500 65900 68000
Wages Low Skilled 20000.00
KES/Month
20000 20000 20000 23100 22100
Living Wage Family 43000.00
KES/Month
43000 43000 43000 44000 44000
Living Wage Individual 24500.00
KES/Month
24500 24500 24500 24500 24500
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.18
percent
4.5 4.2 4 4.5 10.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 190.62
Index Points
196 194 198 206 236
Food Inflation 2.19
percent
8.2 8 7.4 7 6.5
Producer Prices 119.38
Index points
126 125 123 130 128
Producer Prices Change 1.53
percent
5.4 4.6 3.2 5.03 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.39
percent
0.76 0.64 0.61 0.61 0.86
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.50
percent
9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9
Interbank Rate 6.21
percent
7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.7
Money Supply M1 1395.34
KES Billion
1388 1383 1381 1382 1382
Money Supply M2 2547.67
KES Billion
2538 2513 2477 2441 2472
Money Supply M3 3003814.30
KES Million
2964029 2942377 2944562 2963428 2970135
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9676.20
USD Million
9663 9644 9623 9603 9384
Deposit Interest Rate 8.70
percent
9.02 8.91 8.8 8.78 8.75
Central Bank Balance Sheet 934656.00
KES Million
947975 947975 865789 947975 903845
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -104019.00
Million KES
-99209 -96161 -69594 -96905 -63421
Exports 53448.00
Million KES
48924 50572 60470 49938 77340
Imports 157467.00
million KES
148133 146733 130064 146843 140761
Current Account -4908.40
USD Million
-4578 -4707 -4962 -5035 -4902
Current Account to GDP -5.90
percent
-6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -7.7 -6
External Debt 2349.28
KES Billion
2358 2353 2347 2341 2264
Capital Flows -4625.90
USD Million
-6066 -5064 -3524 -5824 -2154
Remittances 203819.83
USD Thousand
193833 193272 192765 192263 186890
Gold Reserves 0.02
Tonnes
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Terms Of Trade 79.00
Index points
81.87 81.87 81.87 80.5 79.39
Terrorism Index 6.17
5.99 5.89 5.8 5.68 4.43
Tourist Arrivals 105862.00
85000 83200 73402 82300 80402
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00
KES Million
44977 50010 55044 50514 24296
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
60 60 60 63 65
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-7.09 -7.26 -7.43 -7.4 -6.95
Government Budget Value -207062.80
KES million
-464288 -414864 -390936 -389531 -385094
Government Spending 1258.02
KES Billion
2197 352 988 1515 1125
Government Revenues 952.61
KES Billion
493 781 750 663 900
Military Expenditure 907.60
USD Million
908 931 953 965 990
Fiscal Expenditure 928079.40
KES Billion
464781 415646 397154 390194 385994
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Internet Speed 12160.37
KBps
13603 13862 14112 14353 16506
IP Addresses 500853.00
IP
-826474 -1003877 -1151587 -1387859 -2884853
Manufacturing Pmi 55.70
52.58 52.49 52.6 52.39 53.7
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60
59.33 59.34 60.8 59.33 62
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 28 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
143 143 143 143 143
Ease of Doing Business 80.00
80 80 103 80 102
Car Production 377.00
468 481 490 497 513
Car Registrations 23264.00
22601 24598 23578 24291 26351
Cement Production 511328.00
Tonnes
503216 501992 595547 499372 615645
Competitiveness Index 3.98
Points
3.92 3.92 3.92 3.85 3.9
Competitiveness Rank 91.00
93 93 93 93 93
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Bank Lending Rate 13.64
percent
13.68 13.68 14.5 13.67 18
Personal Savings 11.00
percent
12.38 12.63 11.1 12.66 11.7
Gasoline Prices 1.05
USD/Liter
0.95 0.89 0.83 0.95 0.55
Disposable Personal Income 6559.17
KES Billion
6890 7082 7274 7450 10162
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 18808.67
KSH Million
19826 19958 29940 20039 33560
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 69.94
mm
86.32 30.51 67.73 39.32 57.2
Temperature 26.52
celsius
24.17 23.11 24.16 25.31 24.71