Kenya | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.00 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.73 6.2 6.4 6 6.4 10.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -98811.00 -76536 -100886 -99748 -98754 -63421 Million KES [+]
Government Debt to GDP 55.20 58 60 60 59.45 65 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 103.10 102 101 99.86 98.83 87.51 [+]
Stock Market 3710.83 3670 3630 3590 3550 3150 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 12.95 13.33 13.46 13.6 13.73 15.18 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.00 5.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 6.8 percent [+]
GDP 70.53 73.4 74.45 75.5 76.55 81.4 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1122121.00 1119258 1116126 1111799 1107333 1065792 KES Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60 167110 166163 165216 164269 145966 KES Million [+]
GDP per capita 1143.10 1160 1161 1162 1164 1161 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2925.60 2976 2984 2992 3000 3044 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 267619.00 182482 280444 270024 205846 277000 Million KES [+]
GDP From Construction 61224.00 60606 59285 59874 59167 58121 Million KES [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 116834.00 107028 112032 115158 112192 110452 KES Million [+]
GDP From Mining 11378.00 11232 11925 11462 11720 11217 KES Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 49798.00 41801 41935 47412 36580 43009 KES Million [+]
GDP From Services 25044.00 24950 24325 24717 25044 24686 KES Million [+]
GDP From Transport 78028.00 79769 74568 76790 77902 70700 KES Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 30212.00 28208 29421 29536 28629 28444 KES Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.00 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 24 percent [+]
Population 48.46 49.1 49.3 49.4 49.5 53.45 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 63500.00 62800 61374 61304 61234 68000 KES/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 20000.00 19700 19237 19250 19262 26500 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 43000.00 43000 43000 43000 43000 43000 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 24500.00 24500 24500 24500 24500 24500 KES/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.73 6.2 6.4 6 6.4 10.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 182.08 182 180 179 178 172 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.79 8.8 8.5 8.2 8 6.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices 119.49 123 117 117 117 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.44 7.5 6.9 5.4 4.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.23 0.67 0.42 0.52 0.55 0.86 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.90 6.98 8.06 8.86 9.47 11.28 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1395.42 1359 1357 1355 1353 1341 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2515.14 2532 2543 2548 2550 2525 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2987868.26 3018447 3039384 3052227 3059425 3036675 KES Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10934.40 10904 10885 10869 10853 10708 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.70 8.88 8.89 8.9 8.91 9.09 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 866494.00 839354 862107 860638 859175 903845 KES Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -98811.00 -76536 -100886 -99748 -98754 -63421 Million KES [+]
Exports 49089.00 49340 46959 46831 46681 77340 Million KES [+]
Imports 147900.00 125876 149563 148856 148204 140761 million KES [+]
Current Account -5074.30 -300 -4650 -4578 -4507 -3920 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -6.2 -6.5 -6.5 -5.25 -6 percent [+]
External Debt 2310.20 2402 2418 2422 2420 2357 KES Billion [+]
Capital Flows -5514.50 -5254 -7061 -6066 -5064 -2154 USD Million [+]
Remittances 176098.17 160478 160052 159603 159155 155235 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 73.30 76.57 77.34 78.12 78.89 80.28 Index points [+]
Terrorism Index 6.17 6.28 6.16 6.05 5.94 5.16 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 89782.00 77405 83300 82600 82200 80402 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00 55044 50514 45984 41453 24980 KES Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 55.20 58 60 60 59.45 65 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.80 -6.55 -6.48 -6.42 -6.35 -6.43 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 42785.00 8526 -59178 -74855 -74220 -72236 KES million [+]
Government Spending 342.25 845 355 377 383 1140 KES Billion [+]
Government Revenues 351.14 273 294 302 304 900 KES Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 907.60 896 889 882 876 859 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 162929.00 276630 349187 371998 378658 381335 KES Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Internet Speed 12160.37 13942 15198 16136 13873 8931 KBps [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 42.80 37.5 44.25 43.06 45.2 53.7 [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60 61.5 59.29 59.33 59.34 62 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 80.00 80 79 79 78 102 [+]
Car Production 431.00 487 495 502 507 517 [+]
Car Registrations 21137.00 20687 23016 21924 20985 26351 [+]
Cement Production 451651.00 575754 486149 484841 483526 615645 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.98 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.92 3.88 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 91.00 97 97 97 97 99 [+]
Corruption Index 26.00 25 24 24 24 23 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 145.00 144 144 144 143 139 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00 2959090 3030562 3102035 3173507 4634989 KES Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.65 13.69 14.12 14.29 14.44 18 percent [+]
Personal Savings 11.00 10.9 13.26 13.06 12.85 11.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.9 USD/Liter [+]
Disposable Personal Income 5661.19 5934 5985 6036 6087 5645 KES Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 20838.09 27280 19528 19002 18533 33560 KSH Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 69.00 54.99 54.9 54.94 54.92 54.93 mm [+]
Temperature 26.00 24.37 24.37 24.37 24.37 24.37 celsius [+]