Kenya | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.3 1 1.21 1.41 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 40.00 42.78 44.05 44.7 45.35 24 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 8.04 7 6.2 6.4 6 10.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -112652.00 -80481 -76536 -83003 -83003 -63421 Million KES [+]
Government Debt to GDP 55.20 58 58 60 60 65 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 3750.35 3520 3490 3450 3420 3030 points [+]
Currency 102.95 102 101 99.81 98.78 87.47 [+]
Government Bond 10y 12.96 13.43 13.57 13.7 13.83 15.3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.3 1 1.21 1.41 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70 5.2 5.2 5.8 5.5 6.8 percent [+]
GDP 70.53 73.39 75.35 76.51 77.67 88.7 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 1111202.00 1131385 1141941 1152149 1162211 1255259 KES Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 171213.60 165849 167110 166163 165216 145966 KES Million [+]
GDP per capita 1143.10 1154 1162 1165 1167 1183 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 2925.60 2965 2986 2998 3011 3121 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 286308.00 225732 225652 225649 225649 277000 Million KES [+]
GDP From Construction 57719.00 62754 66077 64065 65988 78399 Million KES [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 115689.00 112631 109987 116804 120230 123318 KES Million [+]
GDP From Mining 13170.00 12795 12797 13846 13641 16255 KES Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 41647.00 41012 40743 40870 40810 40829 KES Million [+]
GDP From Services 23760.00 24900 26227 24610 24365 28000 KES Million [+]
GDP From Transport 71918.00 74438 74456 74457 74457 70700 KES Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 27567.00 27331 27328 27328 27328 27328 KES Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 40.00 42.78 44.05 44.7 45.35 24 percent [+]
Population 48.46 45 45 45 45 48.3 Million [+]
Living Wage Family 51240.50 52477 52687 52840 52951 53233 KES/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 29349.00 30609 30680 30712 30727 30739 KES/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 61600.00 61600 62800 60495 60482 68000 KES/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 19800.00 19400 19700 19031 19012 26500 KES/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 8.04 7 6.2 6.4 6 10.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 184.72 185 185 185 185 180 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 13.57 12.03 6.8 9.97 10.35 7.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 119.47 122 123 118 120 126 Index points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.44 3 2.7 -0.16 -0.19 1.99 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.61 0.52 0.67 0.59 0.6 0.86 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 9 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.10 4.28 4.31 4.3 4.29 4.28 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1382.37 1428 1467 1506 1545 1926 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2496.02 2493 2537 2581 2624 3034 KES Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2957938.58 2978022 3036277 3094032 3151438 3707372 KES Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11143.76 10901 10946 10940 10940 10940 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.70 8.95 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.98 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 866494.00 79330 839354 936872 936872 903845 KES Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -112652.00 -80481 -76536 -83003 -83003 -63421 Million KES [+]
Exports 52922.00 57210 49340 48735 47599 77340 Million KES [+]
Imports 165573.00 137691 125876 132756 132756 140761 million KES [+]
Current Account -4553.80 -4839 -300 -4878 -4882 -4885 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -5.20 -6.2 -6.2 -6.5 -6.5 -6 percent [+]
External Debt 2294.74 2157 2157 2157 2157 2157 KES Billion [+]
Capital Flows -5814.70 -4976 -5254 -7061 -6066 -2154 USD Million [+]
Remittances 152309.00 148626 151320 151342 151486 151405 USD Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00 50010 55044 50514 45984 24980 KES Million [+]
Terms Of Trade 73.30 77.01 76.57 77.34 78.12 80.28 Index points [+]
Terrorism Index 6.58 6.28 6.28 6.16 6.05 5.16 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 67084.00 76394 77405 81100 81500 80402 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 55.20 58 58 60 60 65 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.80 -6.76 -6.55 -6.48 -6.42 -6.43 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -714552.00 -489564 -330661 -231438 -170389 -74076 KES million [+]
Government Spending 2138.31 290 845 958 894 1140 KES Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1423.76 320 701 686 654 900 KES Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 907.60 900 906 908 910 891 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2138314.00 1400939 979061 732109 587640 384933 KES Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Manufacturing Pmi 42.00 54 53.3 40.91 39.67 53.7 [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 59.60 60.7 61.5 60.26 60.28 62 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 92.00 102 99 74 71 102 [+]
Car Production 403.00 508 462 481 473 475 [+]
Car Registrations 24582.00 19760 20687 23044 23041 26351 [+]
Cement Production 500109.00 565686 575754 516280 506544 615645 Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.90 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.8 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 96.00 94.26 94.26 94.26 94.26 98.11 [+]
Corruption Index 26.00 25 25 25 25 24 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 145.00 144 147 148 149 152 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Spending 2660570.00 2866643 2957819 3029320 3100821 4633755 KES Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 13.66 16.7 17.3 13.59 13.59 18 percent [+]
Personal Savings 11.00 10.9 10.9 11.89 11.93 11.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
Disposable Personal Income 5661.19 5710 5737 5788 5839 7400 KES Billion [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 21632.62 25660 27280 23378 23378 33560 KSH Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]