This page has economic forecasts for Kenya including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kenya economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.50 11 10.5 10.5 10.5 10 percent
Inflation Rate 5.53 6.1 6.3 6 5.5 6.5 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 9 9.5 9 percent
Balance of Trade -98835.30 -69594 -97317 -98895 -97315 -63421 Million KES
Government Debt to GDP 57.10 60 63 63 63 65 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 103.40
101 101 101 101 102
Stock Market 2820.07
points
2853 2832 2810 2788 2703
Government Bond 10y 12.60
percent
12.85 13.13 13.41 13.7 14.94
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.30
percent
5.8 5.9 6 6.1 6.8
GDP 74.94
USD Billion
79.2 88.2 88.2 82.2 90.6
GDP Constant Prices 1188846.00
KES Million
1216860 1240687 1260177 1199586 1380182
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1461256.00
KES Million
1546009 1547470 1548931 1313325 1753508
GDP per capita 1169.34
USD
1191 1220 1220 1205 1240
GDP per capita PPP 2993.03
USD
3047 3121 3121 3085 3173
GDP From Agriculture 282020.00
Million KES
197262 326743 298941 223659 223738
GDP From Construction 65987.00
Million KES
73496 64871 69946 67085 83360
GDP From Manufacturing 116784.00
KES Million
110119 122888 123791 116182 124898
GDP From Mining 11662.00
KES Million
13166 14100 12362 12869 14933
GDP From Public Administration 52033.00
KES Million
45305 45661 55155 43382 51385
GDP From Services 26376.00
KES Million
28516 26186 27959 26637 32344
GDP From Transport 83861.00
KES Million
91985 81146 88893 86637 104330
GDP From Utilities 33307.00
KES Million
28862 31415 35305 30124 32736
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.50
percent
11 10.5 10.5 10.5 10
Population 46.60
Million
48 49 49 49 50
Wages High Skilled 60500.00
KES/Month
63500 65900 65900 65900 68000
Wages Low Skilled 17500.00
KES/Month
20000 23100 23100 23100 24100
Living Wage Family 48500.00
KES/Month
47451 44000 47492 47505 44000
Living Wage Individual 22300.00
KES/Month
21742 21493 21368 21244 21505
Minimum Wages 13572.00
KES/Month
13572 13572 15036 15515 16724
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.53
percent
6.1 6.3 6 5.5 6.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 192.59
Index Points
194 203 205 205 218
Food Inflation 0.50
percent
2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.5
Producer Prices 119.96
Index points
123 123 124 123 128
Producer Prices Change 0.37
percent
3.2 3.1 3.55 2.85 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom -0.79
percent
-0.27 -0.46 -0.34 -0.33 0.86
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 9 9.5 9
Interbank Rate 6.52
percent
6.52 6.52 6.52 7.02 6.52
Money Supply M1 1403.84
KES Billion
1447 1472 1496 1520 1731
Money Supply M2 2685.14
KES Billion
2756 2805 2854 2903 3329
Money Supply M3 3240022.82
KES Million
3336118 3401654 3466927 3531912 4104560
Foreign Exchange Reserves 12264.30
USD Million
12070 12071 12075 12075 12075
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70
percent
7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.7
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1023256.00
KES Million
865789 1009763 1009726 1009810 903845
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -98835.30
Million KES
-69594 -97317 -98895 -97315 -63421
Exports 50986.90
Million KES
60470 53171 51592 53172 77340
Imports 149822.20
million KES
130064 150488 150487 150487 140761
Current Account -4741.30
USD Million
-4655 -4642 -4636 -4633 -4630
Current Account to GDP -5.90
percent
-7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -6
External Debt 2560.20
KES Billion
2736 2819 2902 2984 3684
Capital Flows -4817.90
USD Million
-3524 -4782 -4799 -4810 -2154
Remittances 266186.58
USD Thousand
305351 327112 348260 368794 528804
Gold Reserves 0.02
Tonnes
0.63 0.7 0.66 0.7 0.68
Terms Of Trade 75.00
Index points
81.87 80.5 80.5 80.5 79.39
Terrorism Index 6.17
6.17 6.17 6.17 6.17 6.17
Tourist Arrivals 126797.00
73402 89600 88000 88200 80402
Foreign Direct Investment 89928.00
KES Million
55044 50514 45984 41453 24296
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 57.10
percent
60 63 63 63 65
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8
Government Budget Value -638832.00
KES million
-328 -175 -1.9 -131 -75.56
Government Spending 710508.00
KES Million
751717 752428 753138 695589 852610
Government Revenues 1567.29
KES Billion
750 913 876 853 900
Military Expenditure 909.12
USD Million
910 908 905 903 882
Fiscal Expenditure 91.68
KES Billion
1158 1088 878 983 976
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Internet Speed 12160.37
KBps
14112 14353 14585 14810 16506
IP Addresses 500853.00
IP
-1151587 -1387859 -1612784 -1781955 -2884853
Manufacturing Pmi 54.00
53.6 53.09 52.88 52.79 53.7
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 28 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
143 143 143 143 143
Ease of Doing Business 61.00
75 58 52 46 102
Electricity Production 975.78
Gigawatt-hour
968 967 965 965 966
Car Production 498.00
448 469 460 464 463
Car Registrations 24232.00
23578 23179 23179 23179 26351
Cement Production 473861.00
Tonnes
595547 475730 466492 475527 615645
Competitiveness Index 53.67
Points
54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 56.67
Competitiveness Rank 93.00
93 93 93 93 93
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Bank Lending Rate 13.22
percent
13.22 13.22 13.22 13.72 13.22
Personal Savings 11.00
percent
11.1 12.66 12.46 12.25 11.7
Gasoline Prices 1.14
USD/Liter
1.12 1.1 1.08 1.06 0.99
Disposable Personal Income 7128.70
KES Billion
7503 7583 7663 7744 8339
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits 20616.83
KSH Million
29940 20209 20209 20209 33560
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate For Companies 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 69.94
mm
67.73 39.32 64.2 63.86 57.2
Temperature 26.52
celsius
24.16 25.31 24.99 24.99 24.71



Kenya - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook