Jamaica Reduces Rate to 5.5%

2026-02-23 21:41 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

The Bank of Jamaica reduced its policy rate to 5.50% during its February meeting, as the direct impact of Hurricane Melissa on inflation proved less severe than initially anticipated.

The central bank noted that a faster-than-expected improvement in agricultural supplies and recent exchange rate appreciation helped annual inflation fall to 3.9% in January, while the moderation of second-round price increases has accelerated the projected return to the 4–6% target range.

Although temporary breaches of the target are possible in mid-2026, lower inflation expectations and stable core inflation have reduced the likelihood that prices will remain elevated for longer.

While the post-hurricane recovery and fiscal spending pose upside risks, the international reserves remain healthy and are projected to improve further.

Economic activity is projected to contract by -1.0 to -3.0% in 2025/26 before recovering in 2026/27, with the central bank remaining ready to adjust policy if needed.



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Jamaica Reduces Rate to 5.5%
The Bank of Jamaica reduced its policy rate to 5.50% during its February meeting, as the direct impact of Hurricane Melissa on inflation proved less severe than initially anticipated. The central bank noted that a faster-than-expected improvement in agricultural supplies and recent exchange rate appreciation helped annual inflation fall to 3.9% in January, while the moderation of second-round price increases has accelerated the projected return to the 4–6% target range. Although temporary breaches of the target are possible in mid-2026, lower inflation expectations and stable core inflation have reduced the likelihood that prices will remain elevated for longer. While the post-hurricane recovery and fiscal spending pose upside risks, the international reserves remain healthy and are projected to improve further. Economic activity is projected to contract by -1.0 to -3.0% in 2025/26 before recovering in 2026/27, with the central bank remaining ready to adjust policy if needed.
2026-02-23
Jamaica Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
The Bank of Jamaica held its policy rate at 5.75% during its December meeting, despite heightened inflation risks stemming from the severe economic impact of Hurricane Melissa. The central bank noted that damage to infrastructure is now estimated at more than 40% of GDP, while agricultural losses amount to roughly half of output, increasing the likelihood that food, electricity and other prices will rise faster and remain elevated for longer. These supply disruptions are expected to push inflation above the 4–6% target range in early 2026, with rebuilding activity also lifting core inflation through stronger demand and higher costs. Economic activity is projected to contract sharply in 2025/26 before recovering in 2026/27, supported by external financing, with the central bank remaining ready to adjust policy if needed.
2025-12-18
Jamaica Holds Policy Rate at 5.75%
The Bank of Jamaica’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the policy rate at 5.75% during its November meetings, citing the immediate inflationary impact of Hurricane Melissa and the need to preserve macroeconomic stability. Headline inflation was 2.9% in October and the MPC projected that headline inflation will rise sharply and exceed the 4–6% target over the near term as hurricane-related supply disruptions push up food and other prices, while core inflation is expected to breach the target range by mid-2026. Economic activity is now expected to contract significantly over the near term because of extensive damage to infrastructure and disruption to productive activity and livelihoods, reversing earlier expectations of continued near-term expansion. The MPC noted that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, including higher domestic demand linked to reconstruction spending, stronger inflation expectations, and possible long-term damage to specific industries.
2025-11-24