Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.8 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.30 3.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.5 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -11200.00 -9430 -10974 -7480 -10992 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 71.56 68.39 65.22 64.8 70.88 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 100.25 114 115 119 118 136 [+]
Stock Market 1365.31 1280 1270 1230 1240 1030 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.75 5 5.05 5.1 5.15 5.94 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.8 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.30 6.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 16.78 16.74 16.67 16.95 16.49 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 351840.00 362256 368809 372821 376777 401043 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1352143.00 1330781 1367961 1405140 1413070 1454420 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 67873.00 70344 71456 72423 73131 76514 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 45852.27 45572 46308 47045 47050 46871 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 42704.42 42474 43195 43916 43942 43917 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 3.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 198100.00 199376 200481 201562 202556 209214 [+]
Unemployed Persons 4600.00 4327 4620 4651 4651 4650 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 84.10 84.18 84.03 84.01 84.01 84.02 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.50 6.67 6.3 6.34 6.35 6.34 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 351.00 378 363 346 345 349 [+]
Wages 553000.00 555043 565964 576885 581848 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 3.30 3.54 3.56 3.52 3.53 3.53 percent [+]
Population 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.33 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 82.20 81.6 81.5 81.5 82.43 80.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 134.70 145 146 137 137 139 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 45.60 40.57 40.18 45.34 45.92 44.37 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.20 99.19 98.96 98.85 98.75 98.27 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 442.10 444 445 447 449 467 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 249.10 250 251 252 253 263 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.58 1.54 1.56 1.55 1.55 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.66 184 183 183 184 194 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 186.10 193 195 197 199 217 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 194.44 203 198 192 190 176 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 208.16 207 198 189 186 159 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 406.00 414 426 437 448 538 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 152.70 153 153 153 153 153 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.50 -2.86 -3.06 -3.08 -3.08 -3.08 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.2 0.21 0.3 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -7.10 -1.7 -0.5 0.2 0.5 2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.5 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.97 5.06 5.04 5.03 5.03 5.03 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 52319.04 52582 52636 52682 52679 52674 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 466738.07 340866 44550 332498 101533 199611 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 1048115.75 732019 104453 730671 204396 432234 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1738.00 434868 353559 316639 356085 342056 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3400837.00 3389931 3386578 3386485 3386530 3386538 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 684363.96 662900 646658 646178 646041 646953 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.42 4.38 4.33 4.54 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 813972.00 792694 781631 780530 780385 780424 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.51 306 304 303 303 299 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -11200.00 -9430 -10974 -7480 -10992 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 41000.00 40826 39205 39524 39300 39369 ISK Million [+]
Imports 52200.00 52164 51646 51609 51607 51607 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 44.72 31.9 61.09 53.38 52.69 50.15 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.20 4.6 4.6 4.6 1.83 4 percent [+]
External Debt 2823222.00 2740996 2818984 2709151 2779539 2703970 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows 112.57 68.78 120 95.01 87.76 105 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -78286.00 -53149 -26222 -69011 -30980 -52483 ISK Million [+]
Remittances 825.00 269 267 308 285 286 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 0.68 0.85 1.02 0.86 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 167806.00 158645 144219 151630 152987 151259 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.50 71.56 68.39 65.22 64.8 70.88 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.50 -0.73 -0.91 -1.1 -1.29 -2.09 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -94815.00 -7808 -6955 -7293 -7156 -7186 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending 72166.00 71671 69294 72717 69610 73439 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.20 43.18 42.72 42.26 42.29 42.71 percent [+]
Government Revenues 101348.00 72713 55891 67807 59197 62815 ISK Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 196163.00 71849 70898 71046 71029 71030 ISK Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Changes in Inventories -5158.00 -6511 3072 -4378 7474 -2276 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 2604.00 2164 1950 2026 2047 2036 Cars [+]
Bankruptcies 59.00 69.02 68.82 68.88 68.89 68.89 companies [+]
Corruption Index 78.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 14 14 14 14 15 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 4.89 5.04 5.22 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 30 30 30 26 25 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 20 20 21 20 18 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 126.60 126 126 126 126 126 [+]
Consumer Spending 183054.00 184862 166192 180104 164527 173466 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 3356.10 3394 3465 3537 3561 3902 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.77 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.79 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 386.40 399 416 432 447 534 Index Points [+]
Housing Starts 1612.00 1216 1357 1498 1505 1429 units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78.03 77.72 77.4 77.35 77.03 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 19.99 19.99 19.99 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 45.62 45.64 45.67 45.5 44.28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 12.54 13.03 13.53 13.75 15.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.2 7.16 7.13 7.08 6.71 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]