This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 1.70 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.3 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 4.50 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25 percent
Balance of Trade -11700.00 -25900 -8700 -14000 -13019 -22100 ISK Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.30 40 38 38 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 123.89
 113 114 115 116 119
Stock Market 1266.90
points		 1239 1227 1215 1203 1157
Government Bond 10y 5.77
percent		 5.97 6.03 6.09 6.16 6.42
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20
percent		 3.2 3 2.5 2.7 2.9
GDP 23.91
USD Billion		 26 29 29 29 32
GDP Constant Prices 375858.00
ISK Million		 376139 379997 385254 386006 404851
Gross National Product 1405632.00
ISK Million		 1450612 1447801 1440773 1443584 1561343
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 80820.00
ISK Million		 76358 77034 82841 83002 82186
GDP per capita 49910.01
USD		 50179 50350 50350 50350 50220
GDP per capita PPP 46482.96
USD		 46857 47004 47004 47004 47205
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.70
percent		 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.3 3.4
Employed Persons 201300.00
 201154 201511 202004 202511 205746
Unemployed Persons 3600.00
 4227 4843 4557 4664 4636
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.60
percent		 81.67 81.7 81.71 81.72 81.71
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.00
percent		 8.07 8.21 8.2 8.2 8.2
Job Vacancies 133.00
 136 142 146 146 145
Wages 615000.00
ISK/Month		 700000 750000 702504 714907 800000
Wage Growth 3.30
percent		 3.45 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43
Population 0.35
Million		 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36
Retirement Age Women 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 36.60
Thousand		 43.99 42.97 36.96 37.98 42.55
Full Time Employment 150.00
Thousand		 140 142 150 149 142
Employment Rate 80.20
percent		 79.6 79.6 79.5 79.5 79
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent		 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 2.7
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.10
Index Points		 102 102 105 103 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 459.40
Index Points		 460 467 471 472 488
Core Consumer Prices 257.50
Index Points		 258 261 262 262 273
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.41 2.41 2.8
GDP Deflator 180.35
Index Points		 183 184 184 185 190
Producer Prices 202.50
Index Points		 215 209 218 218 240
Export Prices 187.47
Index Points		 178 176 174 172 166
Import Prices 197.40
Index Points		 188 186 184 182 183
Producer Prices Change 5.50
percent		 10.6 8.5 8.2 7.9 4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent		 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 447.40
Index Points		 438 452 455 461 465
CPI Transportation 153.84
Index Points		 154 155 158 157 164
Food Inflation 4.10
percent		 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.8
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.50
percent		 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.25
Interbank Rate 4.67
percent		 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.42
Money Supply M0 130.20
ISK Billion		 250 270 128 128 450
Money Supply M1 522.55
ISK Billion		 541 527 531 534 598
Money Supply M2 1173.33
ISK Billion		 1790 1167 1170 1168 2550
Money Supply M3 1884.62
ISK Billion		 2640 1941 1964 1983 3420
Foreign Exchange Reserves 761167.31
ISK Million		 775312 777786 776989 776941 776646
Banks Balance Sheet 3749506.00
ISK Million		 3745282 3744163 3744220 3744246 3744248
Private Debt to GDP 314.90
percent		 307 307 306 305 303
Central Bank Balance Sheet 753153.00
ISK Million		 758148 757153 757044 757039 757041
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -11700.00
ISK Million		 -25900 -8700 -14000 -13019 -22100
Exports 61400.00
ISK Million		 45200 50100 48200 53047 51500
Imports 73100.00
ISK Million		 71100 58800 62200 66066 73600
Current Account 1.65
ISK Billion		 16.16 12.83 7.53 17.45 14.39
Current Account to GDP 3.30
percent		 2.8 1 1 1 0.7
External Debt 2322.08
ISK Billion		 1800 2330 2332 2333 1400
Capital Flows 14.49
ISK Billion		 47.45 2.82 24.37 33.09 13.25
Gold Reserves 2.00
Tonnes		 2 2 2.01 2.01 2.01
Remittances 1145.00
ISK Million		 1039 1045 1056 1050 1049
Terrorism Index 0.13
 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
Tourist Arrivals 231681.00
 215200 206900 202700 200600 198500
Foreign Direct Investment -7.17
ISK Billion		 45 -115 -85.12 -123 55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.30
percent		 40 38 38 38 37
Government Budget 0.00
percent of GDP		 1.1 1 1 1 0.9
Government Budget Value 9.60
ISK Billion		 7.38 11.81 9.5 8.93 9.17
Government Spending 76178.00
ISK Million		 79058 75810 78082 78235 85093
Government Spending to GDP 41.90
percent		 41.9 41.9 41.9 41.9 41.9
Government Revenues 275.00
ISK Billion		 279 282 281 280 281
Fiscal Expenditure 265.40
ISK Billion		 273 270 271 272 271
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons		 66.71 64.63 66.03 65.99 66.17
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Changes in Inventories -2639.00
ISK Million		 -7611 6979 -3606 5412 -3387
Car Registrations 1312.00
 1882 2260 2127 2081 2108
Internet Speed 16496.34
KBps		 15768 15787 15781 15758 15754
IP Addresses 152051.00
IP		 149985 151155 149984 151420 149976
Bankruptcies 32.00
Companies		 70.05 73.18 73.22 73.27 73.28
Corruption Index 77.00
Points		 77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
 13 13 13 13 13
Competitiveness Index 74.51
Points		 75.01 75.01 75.01 75.01 77.51
Competitiveness Rank 24.00
 24 24 24 24 24
Ease of Doing Business 21.00
 23 22 22 21 21
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 85.30
Index Points		 89.34 88.77 88.85 88.84 88.84
Consumer Spending 198626.00
ISK Million		 204748 185641 203592 203989 220377
Disposable Personal Income 3634.70
ISK Thousand		 3854 3892 3931 3969 4405
Gasoline Prices 1.81
USD/Liter		 1.78 1.75 1.72 1.69 1.56
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 438.90
Index Points		 444 449 454 458 474
Housing Starts 2836.00
units		 3113 3059 3004 2949 2558
Home Ownership Rate 78.70
percent		 79.87 80.13 80.4 80.66 82.94
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30
percent		 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 10.84
percent		 10.84 10.84 10.84 10.84 10.84
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.84
percent		 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent		 4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature -2.72
celsius		 -1.33 -3.26 2.75 1.73 1.45
Precipitation 119.47
mm		 102 84.95 92.68 92.68 83.85



Iceland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook