Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.10 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.9 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.7 2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4 4 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -9800.00 -7480 -10026 -8298 -6919 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.00 50.2 48.4 48.4 48.4 44.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 103.68 104 103 102 101 89.41 [+]
Stock Market 1313.67 1310 1300 1280 1270 1120 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.96 5.01 5.06 5.11 5.16 5.7 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.10 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 4.4 4.2 4 3.6 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 20.05 16.95 20.65 20.5 20.35 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 348179.00 347615 346935 346505 345926 341592 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1352143.00 1401754 1406917 1412080 1417243 1417777 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 71277.00 68044 67990 66316 65081 57582 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 48613.89 49670 49870 49870 49870 50220 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 45276.45 46442 46431 46420 46409 46329 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.9 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 191600.00 191258 191107 190979 190855 189753 [+]
Unemployed Persons 6000.00 5506 5421 5378 5342 5092 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.40 81.56 81.66 81.72 81.77 81.9 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.90 9.64 9.38 9.43 9.49 9.74 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 150.00 261 322 367 394 433 [+]
Wages 553000.00 576885 581848 586810 591773 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 6.00 5.64 5.12 4.67 4.28 2.34 percent [+]
Population 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Part Time Employment 37.70 44.26 45.68 41.64 40.04 41.68 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 148.30 134 133 139 140 133 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 78.90 81.5 79 78.94 78.88 80.4 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.7 2 2.4 2.6 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.20 97.48 96.99 96.79 96.67 95.92 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 446.70 449 451 452 452 452 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 251.80 253 253 253 253 252 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.07 2.36 2.78 3.13 3.41 4.35 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.66 183 184 184 185 190 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 192.00 197 199 199 190 217 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 194.44 186 183 179 176 149 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 208.16 184 178 172 166 113 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.40 -2.2 0.5 1 1.5 3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.67 0.5 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 426.00 428 430 431 431 429 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 149.67 150 149 149 149 146 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -2.20 -0.55 1.64 2.8 3.37 3.72 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4 4 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.40 4.45 4.75 5.08 5.4 7.03 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 115586.34 113571 112274 110799 109294 97150 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 491.72 505 512 517 525 598 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 1075.32 1150 1260 1340 1470 2550 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1757.78 1950 2120 2250 2340 3420 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3461886.00 3381512 3305294 3236151 3173375 2813901 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 679859.02 685676 676081 664931 653589 561570 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.43 303 299 295 292 277 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 794796.00 791705 786274 780680 775167 730348 ISK Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -9800.00 -7480 -10026 -8298 -6919 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 49700.00 46571 46438 46152 45817 42972 ISK Million [+]
Imports 59600.00 58356 58472 58134 57861 55345 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 16.29 36.73 24.14 17.84 24.64 13.33 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.00 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 percent [+]
External Debt 2558252.00 2608187 2659787 2751891 2855009 3824960 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows -3.92 -46.05 -29.39 -19.85 -29.55 -11.55 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.96 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.13 1.08 0.86 0.64 0.43 0.16 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 284124.00 198100 181400 157100 140200 72900 [+]
Remittances 753.00 248 262 238 237 238 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -22404.00 -25305 -12661 -7192 -3127 10799 ISK Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.00 50.2 48.4 48.4 48.4 44.3 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 1.6 2 2 2 2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 12.90 -15 -2.41 -5.15 0.88 -3.62 ISK Billion [+]
Government Spending 72134.00 71885 69065 71680 69194 70843 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.20 41.58 41.57 41.56 41.54 41.42 percent [+]
Government Revenues 269.30 251 246 241 236 209 ISK Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 256.40 289 258 262 263 249 ISK Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Changes in Inventories -9640.00 -4000 6561 -6534 4359 -2447 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 1715.00 1492 1351 1278 1239 1191 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 16496.34 14716 13926 13355 12759 8740 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 152051.00 151455 150615 150142 150063 146736 IP [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.99 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.15 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 25 25 25 25 25 [+]
Bankruptcies 57.00 49.3 56.33 58.5 59.58 61.6 companies [+]
Corruption Index 78.00 79 79 80 80 83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 13 13 13 13 11 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 23.00 18 18 17 17 12 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.80 107 106 105 104 99.49 [+]
Consumer Spending 189120.00 185924 168592 184559 169084 179177 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 3356.10 3518 3531 3544 3556 3726 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.76 1.96 1.97 1.96 1.94 1.78 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 414.70 416 416 416 415 406 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78.12 78.19 78.26 78.34 79.16 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1133.00 1537 1607 1677 1747 1940 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 21 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 46 46 46 45 44 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 13.53 13.75 13.97 14.19 15.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.13 7.08 7.03 6.98 6.71 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4.28 3.99 3.7 3.42 4.06 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 119.00 89.76 89.76 89.76 89.76 89.76 mm [+]
Temperature -2.00 1.23 2.4 2.36 1.61 2.01 celsius [+]