Iceland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 percent
Balance of Trade -14500.00 -20100 -25900 -8700 -14000 -22100 ISK Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.30 40 40 38 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 109.64
 108 108 109 110 113
Stock Market 1265.75
points		 1261 1249 1236 1224 1175
Government Bond 10y 5.82
percent		 5.74 5.81 5.89 5.96 6.25
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20
percent		 3.4 3.2 3 3 2.9
GDP 23.91
USD Billion		 26 26 29 29 32
GDP Constant Prices 375858.00
ISK Million		 369518 376139 379997 387134 398272
Gross National Product 1405632.00
ISK Million		 1375129 1450612 1447801 1447801 1535968
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 80820.00
ISK Million		 78129 76358 77034 83245 80851
GDP per capita 49910.01
USD		 50179 50179 50350 50350 50220
GDP per capita PPP 46482.96
USD		 46857 46857 47004 47004 47205
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent		 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4
Employed Persons 198700.00
 196726 197715 198261 198641 200533
Unemployed Persons 7700.00
 7174 6483 6794 6707 6723
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.90
percent		 81.42 81.58 81.62 81.62 81.61
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60
percent		 8.26 8.95 9.01 9 9
Job Vacancies 146.00
 152 159 161 161 160
Wages 615000.00
ISK/Month		 700000 700000 750000 702504 800000
Wage Growth 3.50
percent		 3.54 3.6 3.58 3.58 3.58
Population 0.35
Million		 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36
Retirement Age Women 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 44.10
Thousand		 38.59 44.22 43.32 37.98 42.92
Full Time Employment 139.40
Thousand		 148 140 141 150 141
Employment Rate 78.80
percent		 79.7 79.6 79.6 79.5 79
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent		 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.30
Index Points		 101 102 102 104 107
Consumer Price Index CPI 389.50
Index Points		 457 460 466 467 486
Core Consumer Prices 256.00
Index Points		 258 258 261 262 273
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent		 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.59 2.8
GDP Deflator 180.35
Index Points		 183 183 184 184 190
Producer Prices 201.10
Index Points		 214 205 209 218 217
Export Prices 187.47
Index Points		 181 178 176 174 166
Import Prices 197.40
Index Points		 188 188 186 184 183
Producer Prices Change 9.00
percent		 11.5 10.6 8.5 8.2 4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 444.30
Index Points		 437 438 451 452 463
CPI Transportation 154.32
Index Points		 153 154 154 156 163
Food Inflation 2.80
percent		 2.91 2.89 2.88 2.88 2.88
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent		 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5 4
Interbank Rate 4.45
percent		 4.45 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.2
Money Supply M0 122.42
ISK Billion		 220 250 270 125 450
Money Supply M1 510.29
ISK Billion		 525 541 512 515 598
Money Supply M2 1117.78
ISK Billion		 1470 1790 1095 1097 2550
Money Supply M3 1816.41
ISK Billion		 2340 2640 1802 1808 3420
Foreign Exchange Reserves 684405.11
ISK Million		 688068 687656 687825 687935 687930
Banks Balance Sheet 3598653.00
ISK Million		 3548744 3549029 3549037 3549034 3549033
Private Debt to GDP 314.90
percent		 309 307 307 306 303
Central Bank Balance Sheet 729296.00
ISK Million		 729292 729230 729299 729321 729325
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -14500.00
ISK Million		 -20100 -25900 -8700 -14000 -22100
Exports 50900.00
ISK Million		 47100 45200 50100 48200 51500
Imports 65400.00
ISK Million		 67200 71100 58800 62200 73600
Current Account 1.65
ISK Billion		 30.18 16.16 12.83 7.53 14.39
Current Account to GDP 3.70
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2
External Debt 2233.92
ISK Billion		 1850 1800 80575 80693 1400
Capital Flows 56.86
ISK Billion		 13.27 62.04 26.22 35 31.66
Gold Reserves 2.00
Tonnes		 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99
Remittances 1113.00
ISK Million		 965 999 1012 1005 1002
Terrorism Index 0.13
 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Tourist Arrivals 233874.00
 142300 128000 115700 105500 68800
Foreign Direct Investment -7.17
ISK Billion		 32 45 -115 -85.12 55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.30
percent		 40 40 38 38 37
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP		 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7
Government Budget Value 9.60
ISK Billion		 8.57 7.38 11.81 9.5 9.17
Government Spending 76178.00
ISK Million		 73369 79058 75810 78463 83710
Government Spending to GDP 41.90
percent		 43.76 43.71 43.52 43.33 43.52
Government Revenues 275.00
ISK Billion		 280 279 282 281 281
Fiscal Expenditure 265.40
ISK Billion		 272 273 270 271 271
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons		 65.02 67.18 67.85 68.07 68.33
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories -2639.00
ISK Million		 6857 -7611 6979 -3606 -3387
Car Registrations 2015.00
 2618 2450 2589 2597 2579
Internet Speed 16496.34
KBps		 15837 15768 15787 15781 15754
IP Addresses 152051.00
IP		 151502 149985 151155 149984 149976
Bankruptcies 10.00
Companies		 77.97 74.13 76.45 76.55 76.56
Corruption Index 77.00
Points		 77 77 77 76 76
Corruption Rank 13.00
 13 13 13 13 13
Competitiveness Index 4.99
Points		 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98
Competitiveness Rank 28.00
 25 25 27 27 26
Ease of Doing Business 23.00
 21 21 22 22 23
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.10
Index Points		 107 107 107 107 107
Consumer Spending 198626.00
ISK Million		 178526 204748 185641 204585 216795
Disposable Personal Income 3634.70
ISK Thousand		 3775 3854 3892 3931 4405
Gasoline Prices 2.05
USD/Liter		 2.09 1.97 1.86 1.76 1.39
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 435.30
Index Points		 436 441 445 449 463
Housing Starts 2836.00
units		 2647 3113 3059 3004 2558
Home Ownership Rate 78.70
percent		 79.45 79.87 80.13 80.4 82.94
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30
percent		 46.3 46.3 46 46 45
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 10.84
percent		 10.84 10.84 10.84 10.84 12
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.84
percent		 6.66 6.66 6.97 7.07 7.1
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent		 3.13 3.13 3.78 3.99 3.99
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -2.72
celsius		 7.15 -1.33 -3.26 2.75 1.45
Precipitation 119.47
mm		 82.69 102 84.95 92.68 83.85