Iceland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.50 3.2 3.4 2.9 3.2 4 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.4 2.6 3.2 3 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4.25 4 4 4 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -20100.00 -12156 -9518 -7861 -5480 -4110 ISK Million
Government Debt to GDP 54.00 48.4 48.4 48.4 48.4 44.3 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 102.80
106 109 112 116 131
Stock Market 1384.11
points
1289 1244 1201 1159 871
Government Bond 10y 5.12
percent
5.06 5.11 5.16 4.99 5.7
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent
4.2 4 3.6 3.2 2.7
GDP 20.05
USD Billion
17.57 18.65 19.72 17.74 21.65
GDP Constant Prices 351327.00
ISK Million
349516 349320 348721 348285 344557
Gross National Product 1352143.00
ISK Million
1287718 1325730 1363742 1401754 1417777
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 77232.00
ISK Million
74215 73604 71399 70292 60866
GDP per capita 48613.89
USD
49870 49870 49870 49870 50220
GDP per capita PPP 45276.45
USD
44296 45012 45727 46442 46329
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent
3.2 3.4 2.9 3.2 4
Employed Persons 193800.00
194475 194335 194210 194090 193153
Unemployed Persons 4900.00
5647 5595 5554 5515 5262
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.00
percent
81.72 81.78 81.82 81.85 81.91
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
8.54 8.58 8.75 8.87 9.41
Job Vacancies 71.00
164 256 319 357 414
Wages 553000.00
ISK/Month
544121 555043 565964 576885 588699
Wage Growth 5.30
percent
4.69 4.28 3.93 3.62 1.89
Population 0.34
Million
0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36
Retirement Age Women 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 37.70
Thousand
45.27 38.52 37.49 43.01 41.02
Full Time Employment 148.30
Thousand
134 147 150 137 137
Employment Rate 79.80
percent
79.22 79.15 79.08 81.1 80.4
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2 2.4 2.6 3.2 3
Harmonised Consumer Prices 98.70
Index Points
98.7 98.73 98.69 98.62 97.69
Consumer Price Index CPI 447.20
Index Points
448 449 449 449 448
Core Consumer Prices 251.90
Index Points
252 252 252 252 251
Core Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.31 2.72 3.07 3.36 4.28
GDP Deflator 179.66
Index Points
183 183 183 183 190
Producer Prices 193.50
Index Points
199 199 190 205 217
Export Prices 194.44
Index Points
205 199 193 186 149
Import Prices 208.16
Index Points
211 202 193 184 113
Producer Prices Change 1.80
percent
0.5 1 1.5 2.2 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.28 0.37 0.37 0.5 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 426.00
Index Points
425 423 422 422 417
CPI Transportation 149.96
Index Points
150 150 150 149 147
Food Inflation -0.50
percent
1.8 2.96 3.51 3.72 3.73
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4 4 4 3.5
Interbank Rate 4.40
percent
4.56 4.89 5.22 5.51 7.29
Money Supply M0 147.69
ISK Billion
170 190 220 250 450
Money Supply M1 518.50
ISK Billion
512 517 525 541 598
Money Supply M2 1075.59
ISK Billion
1260 1340 1470 1790 2550
Money Supply M3 1728.61
ISK Billion
2120 2250 2340 2640 3420
Foreign Exchange Reserves 686135.14
ISK Million
677306 666539 655376 644287 563935
Banks Balance Sheet 3400961.00
ISK Million
3331970 3262225 3198054 3139718 2744687
Private Debt to GDP 314.90
percent
310 305 300 296 274
Central Bank Balance Sheet 760387.00
ISK Million
750372 744771 739901 735215 686150
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -20100.00
ISK Million
-12156 -9518 -7861 -5480 -4110
Exports 41700.00
ISK Million
44836 44737 44398 44064 41585
Imports 61800.00
ISK Million
59761 59715 59431 59157 56995
Current Account 68.14
ISK Billion
32.47 19.74 37.38 35.74 21.05
Current Account to GDP 8.00
percent
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4
External Debt 2251.63
ISK Billion
1950 1900 1850 1800 1400
Capital Flows 71.85
ISK Billion
-5.97 8.38 -38.4 -9.75 -10.19
Gold Reserves 1.98
Tonnes
1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.96
Remittances 1065.00
ISK Million
456 438 401 332 270
Terrorism Index 0.13
0.17 0.11 0.05 0 0.09
Tourist Arrivals 135240.00
133500 112600 102100 92600 62900
Foreign Direct Investment -357.44
ISK Billion
-42 -23 32 45 55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.00
percent
48.4 48.4 48.4 48.4 44.3
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
2 2 2 2 2.5
Government Budget Value 12.90
ISK Billion
-2.41 -5.15 0.88 -4.79 -3.62
Government Spending 70326.00
ISK Million
70287 72087 70334 71978 71452
Government Spending to GDP 41.20
percent
42.77 42.38 41.98 41.58 41.42
Government Revenues 269.30
ISK Billion
246 241 236 232 209
Fiscal Expenditure 256.40
ISK Billion
258 262 263 266 249
Asylum Applications 80.00
persons
78.3 72.43 73.41 73.34 73.24
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Changes in Inventories 11870.00
ISK Million
6443 -7972 8825 -5601 -3930
Car Registrations 1414.00
Cars
1323 1266 1234 1217 1195
Internet Speed 16496.34
KBps
13926 13355 12759 12112 8740
IP Addresses 152051.00
IP
150615 150142 150063 149537 146736
Bankruptcies 115.00
companies
76.13 68.3 66.31 64.98 62.73
Corruption Index 78.00
Points
79 79 79 79 83
Corruption Rank 14.00
13 13 13 13 11
Competitiveness Index 4.99
Points
5.03 5.03 5.03 5.03 5.15
Competitiveness Rank 28.00
25 25 25 25 25
Ease of Doing Business 23.00
21 20 20 20 18
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 137.00
Index Points
128 126 123 121 109
Consumer Spending 173424.00
ISK Million
172763 186416 172465 185315 181050
Disposable Personal Income 3356.10
ISK Thousand
3322 3388 3453 3518 3726
Gasoline Prices 1.92
USD/Liter
1.97 1.97 1.95 1.93 1.78
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 413.30
Index Points
408 405 402 401 391
Housing Starts 1133.00
units
1797 1711 1624 1537 1940
Home Ownership Rate 77.80
percent
78.39 78.3 78.21 78.12 79.16
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30
percent
45 46 46 46 44
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 25
Social Security Rate 11.35
percent
13 13 14 14 15
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35
percent
7.23 7.2 7.16 7.13 6.71
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4.18 4.21 4.24 4.28 4.06
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature -2.72
celsius
-3.25 3.11 7.15 -1.33 1.45
Precipitation 119.47
mm
84.78 58.72 82.69 102 83.85