Iceland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.6 0.5 0.6 2.9 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.7 2.8 3 3 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4 4 4 3.75 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -13400.00 -14200 -20100 -25900 -8700 -22100 ISK Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.30 40 40 40 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 104.80
 102 105 107 110 123
Stock Market 1346.87
points		 1308 1268 1229 1191 1050
Government Bond 10y 5.31
percent		 5.5 5.72 5.96 6.2 7.26
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent		 0.6 0.5 0.6 2.9 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent		 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7
GDP 20.05
USD Billion		 18.75 19.77 17.74 19.58 21.65
GDP Constant Prices 361529.00
ISK Million		 354317 365323 373098 357348 394667
Gross National Product 1405632.00
ISK Million		 1375129 1375129 1450612 1391355 1534472
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 73833.00
ISK Million		 76046 78620 76196 68373 80601
GDP per capita 48613.89
USD		 49870 49870 49870 50350 50220
GDP per capita PPP 45276.45
USD		 45012 45727 46442 46329 45958
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent		 2.7 2.8 3 3 3.4
Employed Persons 199600.00
 201600 202131 202668 203208 209140
Unemployed Persons 5200.00
 7177 7099 7022 6949 6438
Labor Force Participation Rate 82.00
percent		 82.02 82.46 82.37 82.31 82.37
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.90
percent		 10.4 8.75 7.76 7 7.95
Job Vacancies 182.00
 165 185 195 199 203
Wages 615000.00
ISK/Month		 700000 700000 700000 750000 800000
Wage Growth 4.80
percent		 5.16 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.17
Population 0.34
Million		 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36
Retirement Age Women 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 45.10
Thousand		 38.35 38.35 38.35 38.35 38.35
Full Time Employment 138.10
Thousand		 147 147 147 147 147
Employment Rate 79.90
percent		 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.6 79
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8
Harmonised Consumer Prices 98.70
Index Points		 102 101 101 101 107
Consumer Price Index CPI 452.20
Index Points		 454 457 459 464 484
Core Consumer Prices 254.50
Index Points		 256 258 258 261 273
Core Inflation Rate 0.00
percent		 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8
GDP Deflator 180.35
Index Points		 182 182 182 182 182
Producer Prices 192.90
Index Points		 180 189 198 197 210
Export Prices 187.47
Index Points		 179 176 173 170 137
Import Prices 197.40
Index Points		 183 181 179 175 131
Producer Prices Change 3.70
percent		 1 1.5 2.2 2.3 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 0.44 0.42 0.5 0.41 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 436.50
Index Points		 426 437 437 448 461
CPI Transportation 150.10
Index Points		 154 153 154 153 162
Food Inflation 1.60
percent		 2.18 2.96 3.38 3.58 3.69
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent		 4 4 4 3.75 3.5
Interbank Rate 4.42
percent		 4.39 4.38 4.38 4.38 4.38
Money Supply M0 134.59
ISK Billion		 190 220 250 270 450
Money Supply M1 505.81
ISK Billion		 517 525 541 521 598
Money Supply M2 1082.01
ISK Billion		 1340 1470 1790 1075 2550
Money Supply M3 1750.83
ISK Billion		 2250 2340 2640 1758 3420
Foreign Exchange Reserves 659933.84
ISK Million		 680112 672637 678134 674310 675838
Banks Balance Sheet 3497579.00
ISK Million		 3495542 3495792 3495753 3495745 3495744
Private Debt to GDP 314.90
percent		 311 309 307 307 303
Central Bank Balance Sheet 739051.00
ISK Million		 737161 737271 737270 737271 737271
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -13400.00
ISK Million		 -14200 -20100 -25900 -8700 -22100
Exports 48000.00
ISK Million		 46700 47100 45200 50100 51500
Imports 61400.00
ISK Million		 60900 67200 71100 58800 73600
Current Account 2.77
ISK Billion		 9.09 37.69 19.25 21.83 21.46
Current Account to GDP 3.70
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2
External Debt 2265.61
ISK Billion		 1900 1850 1800 2360 1400
Capital Flows 23.96
ISK Billion		 41.59 22.7 51.69 29.56 34.33
Gold Reserves 2.00
Tonnes		 2 2 2.01 2.01 2.01
Remittances 2771.00
ISK Million		 1418 1338 1544 1463 1465
Terrorism Index 0.13
 0.3 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28
Tourist Arrivals 173061.00
 185300 173200 176700 178200 177200
Foreign Direct Investment -131.37
ISK Billion		 -23 32 45 -468 55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.30
percent		 40 40 40 38 37
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP		 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7
Government Budget Value 18.80
ISK Billion		 7.81 6.79 5.71 5.76 5.09
Government Spending 74736.00
ISK Million		 73728 71612 77128 71600 81586
Government Spending to GDP 41.90
percent		 43.8 43.76 43.71 43.52 43.52
Government Revenues 282.20
ISK Billion		 281 280 279 279 278
Fiscal Expenditure 281.60
ISK Billion		 273 273 273 273 273
Asylum Applications 50.00
persons		 87.11 80.04 82.33 82.1 82
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Changes in Inventories -8188.00
ISK Million		 -8466 9396 -6912 6663 -4061
Car Registrations 2441.00
 2025 2038 1993 1998 2003
Internet Speed 16496.34
KBps		 13355 12759 12112 11552 7967
IP Addresses 152051.00
IP		 150142 150063 149537 149069 145802
Bankruptcies 69.00
Companies		 73.39 73.02 72.98 72.98 72.98
Corruption Index 77.00
Points		 77 77 77 77 76
Corruption Rank 13.00
 14 13 13 13 13
Competitiveness Index 4.99
Points		 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98
Competitiveness Rank 28.00
 25 25 25 27 26
Ease of Doing Business 23.00
 23 23 23 23 23
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 117.40
Index Points		 120 119 119 119 119
Consumer Spending 199128.00
ISK Million		 193118 177959 205500 175122 217380
Disposable Personal Income 3634.70
ISK Thousand		 3696 3775 3854 3892 4405
Gasoline Prices 2.06
USD/Liter		 1.87 1.76 1.66 1.57 1.09
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 425.50
Index Points		 436 441 443 444 436
Housing Starts 2836.00
units		 1298 1202 1106 1134 931
Home Ownership Rate 78.70
percent		 78.03 77.72 77.4 77.35 77.01
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30
percent		 46.3 46.3 46.3 46 46
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 10.84
percent		 10.84 10.84 10.84 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.84
percent		 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent		 3.39 3.39 3.39 4.53 5.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature -2.72
celsius		 3.11 7.15 -1.33 -3.26 1.45
Precipitation 119.47
mm		 58.72 82.69 102 84.95 83.85