Iceland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.10 1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 1.80 3 2.8 3.2 3.4 4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.8 2 2 2.4 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.50 4.5 4.25 4.25 4 3.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -9600.00 -14264 -7480 -9168 -7574 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 54.00 50.2 50.2 48.4 48.4 44.3 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 107.48 103 102 101 99.96 88.51 [+]
Stock Market 1259.46 1340 1320 1310 1300 1150 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 5.53 4.76 4.8 4.85 4.9 5.42 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -1.10 1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40 4.5 4.4 4.2 4 2.7 percent [+]
GDP 20.05 19.85 16.95 20.73 20.56 21.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 348179.00 348734 347615 346935 346505 341592 ISK Million [+]
Gross National Product 1352143.00 1367961 1405140 1413070 1421001 1454420 ISK Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 71277.00 69762 68044 67990 66316 57582 ISK Million [+]
GDP per capita 48613.89 49064 49673 49723 49773 50222 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 45276.45 45807 46369 46422 46475 47037 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 1.80 3 2.8 3.2 3.4 4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 191100.00 191444 191468 191529 191583 191840 [+]
Unemployed Persons 3600.00 4294 4126 4234 4207 4207 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.10 82.42 82.75 82.79 82.78 82.78 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.40 6.91 6.88 6.91 6.91 6.91 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 304.00 184 225 243 240 236 [+]
Wages 553000.00 565964 576885 581848 586810 588699 ISK/Month [+]
Wage Growth 6.00 6.57 6.5 6.55 6.54 6.54 percent [+]
Population 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 67.00 67 67 67 67 67 [+]
Employment Rate 79.60 81.5 81.5 80.08 80.08 80.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 132.50 145 136 134 143 137 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 47.40 40.4 45.67 46.87 41.94 44.81 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.8 2 2 2.4 3 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.20 101 101 102 102 104 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 444.00 445 446 448 450 464 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 250.30 251 252 253 254 262 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.08 1.92 1.78 1.74 1.76 1.75 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.66 183 183 184 185 194 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 184.60 195 197 199 199 217 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 194.44 198 192 190 187 176 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 208.16 198 189 186 182 159 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 422.10 425 436 446 456 531 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 151.53 151 151 151 151 151 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -4.00 -4.01 -4.06 -4.07 -4.07 -4.07 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.09 0.3 0.13 0.14 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -7.80 -0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.50 4.5 4.25 4.25 4 3.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.65 4.7 4.9 5.23 5.54 7.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 54860.62 54196 54229 54212 54210 54212 ISK Million [+]
Money Supply M1 486.64 498 505 512 517 598 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 1046768.19 1080 1150 1260 1340 2550 ISK Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1733358.00 1820 1950 2120 2250 3420 ISK Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 3314382.00 3323885 3323119 3323105 3323115 3323116 ISK Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 688209.64 700526 701562 699791 699762 699967 ISK Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.85 4.38 4.33 4.54 4.75 5.76 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 774252.00 763435 762097 761827 761826 761841 ISK Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 323.43 319 303 299 295 277 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -9600.00 -14264 -7480 -9168 -7574 -4110 ISK Million [+]
Exports 46000.00 43346 42708 42212 41874 38913 ISK Million [+]
Imports 55000.00 59141 57249 57050 56736 53798 ISK Million [+]
Current Account 16.29 43.51 36.73 24.14 17.84 13.33 ISK Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.00 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4 percent [+]
External Debt 2558252.00 2562965 2608187 2659787 2751891 3824960 ISK Million [+]
Capital Flows -3.92 2.63 -46.05 -29.39 -19.85 -11.55 ISK Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -22404.00 -10748 -25305 -12661 -7192 10799 ISK Million [+]
Remittances 753.00 319 344 362 346 346 ISK Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.25 0.85 1.02 0.86 0.71 0.81 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 146429.00 110100 94700 83100 75100 56500 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 54.00 50.2 50.2 48.4 48.4 44.3 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 -0.65 -0.45 -0.68 -0.91 -2.56 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 12.90 64.1 39.54 27.89 24.58 33.47 ISK Billion [+]
Government Spending 72134.00 68834 71885 69065 71680 70843 ISK Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 41.20 42.72 42.26 42.29 42.31 42.71 percent [+]
Government Revenues 269.30 265 291 317 277 296 ISK Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 256.40 277 301 272 283 282 ISK Billion [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Changes in Inventories -9640.00 4790 -4000 6561 -6534 -2447 ISK Million [+]
Car Registrations 2300.00 2361 2464 2639 2586 2574 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.96 4.89 4.89 5 5.04 5.22 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 27.00 30 30 27 26 25 [+]
Bankruptcies 20.00 61.28 62.7 62.63 62.65 62.65 companies [+]
Corruption Index 78.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 14.00 14 14 14 14 15 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 20.00 20 21 20 20 18 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 106.10 107 107 106 105 99.54 [+]
Consumer Spending 189120.00 169642 185924 168592 184559 179177 ISK Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 3356.10 3465 3537 3561 3584 3902 ISK Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.70 1.68 1.65 1.63 1.62 1.55 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 410.40 413 418 421 423 415 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 77.72 77.4 77.35 77.3 77.03 percent [+]
Housing Starts 1133.00 1193 1101 1129 1157 1115 units [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 19.99 19.99 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30 45.64 45.67 45.5 45.33 44.28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.35 13.03 13.53 13.75 13.97 15.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.35 7.16 7.13 7.08 7.03 6.71 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]