Guatemala - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Guatemala including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Guatemala economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 3.36 4.1 4.1 4 4.2 4 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade -713.00 -764 -763 -760 -760 -760 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 24.76 25 25 27.4 23.7 25.2 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 7.69
7.55 7.56 7.57 7.59 7.64
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.7 3 3.2 2.9 3.3
GDP 75.62
USD Billion
79 79.02 85.3 85.3 96.2
GDP Constant Prices 62444.70
GTQ Million
65118 70091 64443 64256 74721
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37197.60
GTQ Million
37409 38314 38388 38276 40844
GDP per capita 3124.21
USD
3190 3190 3260 3260 3340
GDP per capita PPP 7423.81
USD
7481 7500 7685 7685 7770
Gdp From Agriculture 8152.50
GTQ Million
8285 10861 8413 8389 11578
Gdp From Construction 1402.90
GTQ Million
1855 2337 1448 1444 2491
Gdp From Manufacturing 11722.60
GTQ Million
11471 11765 12098 12063 12542
Gdp From Mining 229.30
GTQ Million
246 264 237 236 282
Gdp From Public Administration 2977.20
GTQ Million
3032 3282 3072 3064 3498
Gdp From Transport 6555.80
GTQ Million
6582 7178 6766 6746 7652
Gdp From Utilities 1939.40
GTQ Million
1998 1958 2001 1996 2087
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.4
Population 16.92
Million
16.81 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.87
Wages High Skilled 8270.00
GTQ/Month
8400 8400 8400 7928 8500
Wages Low Skilled 3320.00
GTQ/Month
3390 3390 3390 2999 3420
Living Wage Family 3560.00
GTQ/Month
3560 3560 3660 3560 3660
Living Wage Individual 1690.00
GTQ/Month
1690 1690 1690 1690 1690
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.36
percent
4.1 4.1 4 4.2 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 136.08
Index Points
136 140 139 141 151
Inflation Expectations 4.25
percent
4.37 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.31
Inflation Rate Mom 0.44
percent
0.24 0.3 0.3 0.29 0.29
Food Inflation 3.60
percent
1.9 1.33 1.09 1 0.95
Core Consumer Prices 128.85
Index Points
129 129 129 129 130
Core Inflation Rate 2.16
percent
1.22 0.83 0.65 0.56 0.48
Cpi Housing Utilities 111.73
Index Points
113 115 115 116 124
Cpi Transportation 109.95
Index Points
109 110 110 110 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.5
Money Supply M0 61259.80
GTQ Million
61103 61691 62475 63292 71287
Money Supply M1 84555.80
GTQ Million
84423 84406 84402 84401 84401
Money Supply M2 239696.00
GTQ Million
240273 244137 247947 251750 289357
Foreign Exchange Reserves 12535.80
USD Million
12634 12926 13216 13504 16281
Deposit Interest Rate 5.40
percent
5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.15
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -713.00
USD Million
-764 -763 -760 -760 -760
Exports 887.30
USD Million
880 900 903 901 901
Imports 1600.30
USD Million
1644 1666 1663 1661 1661
Current Account 480.00
USD Million
204 -4.6 438 353 189
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent
-0.54 0.3 -1.72 -1.24 -0.26
Capital Flows 1845.80
USD Million
1940 2102 2090 2077 1592
Remittances 7160.00
USD Million
7592 7825 7957 8090 9792
Gold Reserves 6.90
Tonnes
6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89
Terrorism Index 0.51
0.58 0.51 0.62 0.73 1.83
Tourist Arrivals 654643.00
persons
539400 561300 584600 596100 575500
Foreign Direct Investment 293.20
USD Million
275 276 284 269 272
Crude Oil Production 9.00
BBL/D/1K
9 9.01 9.03 9.02 9.02
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.76
percent
25 25 27.4 23.7 25.2
Government Budget -1.30
percent of GDP
-1.44 -1.48 -1.47 -1.47 -1.29
Government Budget Value 81.10
GTQ Million
-1437 -1150 -1120 -989 -759
Government Spending 26287.20
GTQ Million
27265 27076 27128 27050 28864
Government Revenues 6898.20
GTQ Million
4558 4762 4898 5001 5281
Fiscal Expenditure 6817.10
GTQ Million
5995 6143 6017 5990 6040
Military Expenditure 262.80
USD Million
281 283 280 278 280
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories -63.80
GTQ Million
265 98.68 220 342 563
Internet Speed 3309.38
KBps
3190 3195 3202 3197 3197
IP Addresses 208790.00
IP
204158 204238 204174 204097 204158
Leading Economic Index 3.40
percent
2.8 2.8 3 3.2 2.7
Steel Production 25.00
Thousand Tonnes
25.36 25.17 25.07 25.13 25.13
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.09 4.09 4.08 4.08 4.1
Competitiveness Rank 84.00
84 84 85 86 83
Ease of Doing Business 97.00
104 106 107 107 115
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 28 29
Corruption Rank 143.00
142 143 142 142 140
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 223095.10
GTQ Million
220783 229788 230234 229565 244967
Private Sector Credit 124101.90
GTQ Million
123477 124149 124807 125445 130928
Gasoline Prices 0.91
USD/Liter
0.93 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.62
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 17.50
percent
17.5 17.5 18 18 18
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.67
percent
12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.83
percent
4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 25.66
celsius
24.13 21.89 21.88 23.81 23.67