Guatemala | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Guatemala including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Guatemala economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.1 3 2.7 2.7 3.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.72 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -610.70 -568 -552 -556 -557 -557 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 24.22 24.15 24.06 24.02 23.97 23.73 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 7.29 7.22 7.14 7.07 7 6.2 [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.95 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.4 percent [+]
GDP 68.76 77.51 78.81 81.37 83.92 108 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 61031.60 62385 62393 62392 62392 62392 GTQ Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 36218.90 35920 35652 35496 35340 36189 GTQ Million [+]
GDP per capita 3100.20 3122 3140 3132 3140 3340 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7366.80 7409 7421 7440 7460 7685 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 7953.80 8312 8320 8319 8319 8319 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Construction 1372.80 1680 1684 1683 1683 1683 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 11383.40 11099 11379 11597 11447 11676 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Mining 507.10 441 449 485 459 459 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 2830.60 2860 2918 2865 2865 2917 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Transport 6323.90 6327 6627 6330 6624 6610 GTQ Million [+]
Gdp From Utilities 1794.40 1891 1890 1889 1952 2121 GTQ Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.1 3 2.7 2.7 3.4 percent [+]
Population 16.18 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.7 18.06 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 8220.00 7921 7947 7932 7941 7938 GTQ/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 2560.00 2977 2977 2977 2977 2977 GTQ/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 60.75 60.81 60.77 60.75 60.74 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 3167.20 3190 3192 3194 3195 3197 GTQ/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2089.10 2097 2097 2097 2097 2097 GTQ/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.72 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 131.65 130 130 131 131 138 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30 0.61 0.67 0.72 0.75 0.78 percent [+]
Food Inflation 10.40 9.83 9.36 9.08 8.95 8.9 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 56764.80 58429 59368 60362 61354 71018 GTQ Million [+]
Money Supply M1 77608.30 78964 78947 78948 78948 78948 GTQ Million [+]
Money Supply M2 221450.60 223959 227693 231377 235052 271367 GTQ Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11277.90 11347 11422 11417 11403 11252 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 5.50 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.56 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -610.70 -568 -552 -556 -557 -557 USD Million [+]
Exports 895.30 873 901 908 906 905 USD Million [+]
Imports 1506.00 1481 1492 1495 1495 1495 USD Million [+]
Current Account 592.00 146 205 508 268 318 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.30 -0.25 -0.07 -0.34 -0.62 -1.24 percent [+]
Capital Flows 805.20 1156 1142 1260 1378 1851 USD Million [+]
Remittances 6460.60 6810 7077 7195 7313 8682 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89 6.89 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.14 1.14 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.62 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8.00 8.13 8.13 8.1 8.1 8.11 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.22 24.15 24.06 24.02 23.97 23.73 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.40 -1.75 -1.62 -1.66 -1.69 -1.65 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 234.60 -980 -3020 450 5.1 -2230 GTQ Million [+]
Government Spending 26548.50 26110 26019 25843 25667 23264 GTQ Million [+]
Government Revenues 6470.60 4730 4866 4940 4992 5066 GTQ Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 6236.00 5469 5763 5434 5406 5492 GTQ Million [+]
Military Expenditure 259.00 257 254 254 254 260 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Changes in Inventories 771.40 680 698 735 772 533 GTQ Million [+]
Steel Production 20.00 23.01 27.28 26.69 25.85 26.16 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.37 2.93 3.12 3.24 3.33 3.48 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.08 4.05 4.05 4.08 4.09 4.11 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 78.00 77 77 78 78 78 [+]
Corruption Index 28.00 27 27 27 27 28 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 136.00 136 140 140 140 137 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 88.00 89 90 90 91 94 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Spending 216547.00 220996 223567 225201 226835 241827 GTQ Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.74 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25.3 25.53 25.98 26.42 27.55 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 17.50 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 percent [+]