Guatemala - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Guatemala including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Guatemala economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 5.68 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.75 3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -688.40 -688 -663 -640 -619 -466 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 24.22 25.2 25 25 24.6 28.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 7.37
7.34 7.34 7.34 7.34 7.34
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70
percent
3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.4
GDP 68.76
USD Billion
69 70.4 71.8 73.2 85.3
GDP Constant Prices 63348.80
GTQ Million
62221 62449 62951 64576 63308
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 37197.60
GTQ Million
35924 36284 36643 37002 34059
GDP per capita 3100.20
USD
3108 3111 3114 3190 3340
GDP per capita PPP 7366.80
USD
7391 7399 7407 7415 7520
Gdp From Agriculture 8067.10
GTQ Million
8065 7806 8026 10064 9849
Gdp From Construction 1806.60
GTQ Million
1430 1558 1756 2091 1945
Gdp From Manufacturing 11169.50
GTQ Million
11341 10927 11122 11030 11023
Gdp From Mining 239.60
GTQ Million
346 388 344 324 333
Gdp From Public Administration 2952.40
GTQ Million
2875 2867 2893 2890 2851
Gdp From Transport 6408.60
GTQ Million
6378 6768 6373 6731 6562
Gdp From Utilities 1945.90
GTQ Million
1885 1888 1898 1898 1882
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10
percent
2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4
Population 16.56
Million
16.4 16.7 16.84 16.94 18.51
Living Wage Family 3560.00
GTQ/Month
3560 3560 3560 3560 3660
Living Wage Individual 1690.00
GTQ/Month
1690 1690 1690 1690 1690
Wages High Skilled 8270.00
GTQ/Month
8400 8400 8400 8400 8500
Wages Low Skilled 3320.00
GTQ/Month
3390 3390 3390 3390 3420
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 5.68
percent
4.5 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.50
Index Points
131 131 131 131 135
Inflation Rate Mom 0.95
percent
0.47 0.42 0.4 0.39 0.38
Food Inflation 12.35
percent
13.17 12.16 11.05 10.25 9.11
Cpi Housing Utilities 110.33
Index Points
110 110 109 108 107
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 2.75
percent
3 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5
Money Supply M0 61298.60
GTQ Million
62325 61950 61895 61861 61455
Money Supply M1 82297.90
GTQ Million
82840 82494 82413 82353 81651
Money Supply M2 228793.90
GTQ Million
231986 232366 232583 232629 230957
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11345.90
USD Million
11280 11248 11229 11214 11036
Deposit Interest Rate 5.50
percent
6.24 6.24 6.23 6.23 7.67
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -688.40
USD Million
-688 -663 -640 -619 -466
Exports 880.50
USD Million
847 839 829 820 728
Imports 1568.90
USD Million
1592 1585 1580 1574 1513
Current Account 198.70
USD Million
343 369 213 161 80.83
Current Account to GDP 1.30
percent
-0.73 -0.54 -0.54 -0.15 -1.92
Capital Flows 805.20
USD Million
874 838 802 766 1088
Remittances 7160.00
USD Million
7048 7294 7541 7787 8917
Gold Reserves 6.89
Tonnes
6.88 6.88 6.87 6.87 6.86
Terrorism Index 0.51
0.73 0.65 0.58 0.51 1.83
Foreign Direct Investment 285.30
USD Million
302 283 281 287 277
Crude Oil Production 8.00
BBL/D/1K
9.16 9.4 9.63 9.85 11.19
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.22
percent
25.2 25 25 24.6 28.5
Government Budget -1.10
percent of GDP
-1.48 -1.44 -1.39 -1.35 -1.53
Government Budget Value 1637.50
GTQ Million
450 5.1 -940 -2870 -2230
Government Spending 26287.20
GTQ Million
26338 26274 26211 26147 25744
Government Revenues 5963.40
GTQ Million
4630 4670 4708 4741 4812
Fiscal Expenditure 4325.90
GTQ Million
6340 5885 5765 5874 4751
Military Expenditure 259.00
USD Million
281 278 274 270 305
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Changes in Inventories -63.80
GTQ Million
580 422 264 106 459
Internet Speed 3309.38
KBps
3080 3043 3010 2976 2634
IP Addresses 208790.00
IP
199599 198703 198059 197400 193781
Leading Economic Index 2.30
percent
2.98 3.16 3.27 3.34 3.45
Steel Production 25.00
Thousand Tonnes
24.8 24.71 24.69 24.68 24.67
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 3.99
Competitiveness Rank 84.00
84 84 84 84 83
Ease of Doing Business 97.00
100 102 104 106 111
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 27 27 29
Corruption Rank 136.00
124 128 131 135 113
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 223095.10
GTQ Million
224589 226688 228787 230885 248550
Gasoline Prices 0.87
USD/Liter
0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.82
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
27 27 27 27 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 7.00
percent
10 10 10 10 15
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 17.50
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.67
percent
12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67 12.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.83
percent
4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 25.66
celsius
21.83 24.78 24.13 21.89 23.67