Bahrain | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 0.7 0.5 0.8 -0.6 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 4 4 4.1 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.8 2.6 3.5 3.6 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75 1.75 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -302.20 248 240 232 13.06 -522 BHD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 61.90 55 55 55 71.06 65 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Stock Market 1314.22 1330 1320 1280 1290 1080 points [+]
Currency 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.4 0.4 0.46 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.70 0.7 0.5 0.8 -0.6 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10 3.4 3.6 3 2.9 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 31.12 32 33 34 31.61 37 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11978.80 12258 12356 12455 12578 13922 BHD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2634.70 2761 2639 2518 2512 2713 BHD Million [+]
GDP per capita 22348.00 22295 22431 22568 22647 23375 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43753.90 44197 44143 44090 44155 44228 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 34.95 34.89 35.23 35.56 35.41 34.99 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 217.30 224 226 228 231 256 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 431.20 431 432 432 433 437 BDT Million [+]
GDP From Mining 535.60 591 591 549 587 575 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 385.80 389 390 390 391 391 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1693.00 1721 1736 1749 1761 1908 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 218.90 222 225 225 227 241 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 40.90 41.05 42 40.73 40.14 40.36 BHD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4 4 4 4.1 4.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 658600.00 669638 677176 685595 693292 775043 [+]
Population 1.42 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.64 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.8 2.6 3.5 3.6 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.70 129 129 130 131 137 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 101.13 99.37 98.73 98.09 99 110 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 113.20 114 113 114 113 114 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 125.50 126 126 126 126 126 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.40 -1.05 -0.52 -0.87 -0.74 -0.77 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75 1.75 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.20 2.19 2.14 2.14 2.15 2.15 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 526.10 527 527 527 527 527 BHD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10373.00 10397 10435 10471 10506 10785 BHD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00 0.95 1.11 1.28 1.25 1.09 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 1.00 1.11 1.17 1.2 1.21 1.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M3 12255.00 12295 12347 12396 12442 12872 BHD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3453.00 3478 3510 3543 3575 3911 BHD Million [+]
Loan Growth -0.36 -1.4 -1.81 -1.89 -1.93 -1.93 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 4169.30 4169 4168 4169 4168 4168 BHD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 645.20 646 632 627 624 622 BHD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -302.20 248 240 232 13.06 -522 BHD Million [+]
Exports 4807.00 4849 4422 3995 3934 4956 BHD Million [+]
Imports 5109.20 5664 5615 5566 5810 6825 BHD Million [+]
Current Account -561.30 -183 -172 -161 -67.73 429 BHD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.30 5.29 3.48 1.68 1.91 2.32 percent [+]
Gold Reserves 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 Tonnes [+]
Capital Flows 363.60 -72.4 128 329 205 -595 BHD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -299.70 269 163 57.42 101 375 BHD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.21 3.93 3.67 3.42 3.17 0.65 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.90 55 55 55 71.06 65 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.00 -5.23 -5.79 -6.36 -6.57 -9.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 1844.00 1847 1851 1854 1859 1880 BHD Million [+]
Government Debt 7643.40 8557 8780 9036 9301 11884 BHD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 3544.60 3695 3704 3712 3774 4655 BHD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1401.00 1453 1448 1443 1429 1369 USD Million [+]
Government Revenues 3089.50 3918 3957 3997 4084 5421 BHD Million [+]
Government Budget Value -455.10 -337 -337 -337 -355 -402 BHD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Changes in Inventories 112.00 137 133 130 131 153 BHD Million [+]
Car Registrations 430.00 437 432 426 412 369 Hundreds [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.45 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 48.00 43 43 43 49 49 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 63.00 65 65 64 62 45 [+]
Corruption Index 43.00 48 48 47 47 49 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 70.00 56 58 59 60 58 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 4774.10 5016 5016 5016 4636 5507 BHD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 3656.80 3743 3807 3871 3934 4591 BHD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 184.00 198 190 193 199 195 TENS [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.00 9 9 9 9 9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 percent [+]