Bahrain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 -0.6 1.1 1.3 0.6 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.8 2 2.1 2 2.7 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -302.20 391 183 -25.37 -234 -224 BHD Million
Government Debt to GDP 82.10 96 96 86.45 96 102 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Stock Market 1339.72
points
1250 1240 1220 1210 1080
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent
-0.6 1.1 1.3 0.6 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60
percent
3 3.5 3.2 2.7 3.8
GDP 31.86
USD Billion
31.1 31.2 31.3 35 37
GDP Constant Prices 3147.79
BHD Million
3272 3317 3352 3376 3397
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3043.30
BHD Million
2567 2654 2741 2829 2299
GDP per capita 22435.60
USD
22442 22446 22449 22453 21708
GDP per capita PPP 44456.20
USD
44894 44742 44591 44439 41994
GDP From Agriculture 34.95
BHD Million
35.28 35.86 36.45 37.04 23
GDP From Construction 218.93
BHD Million
216 216 215 215 209
GDP From Manufacturing 450.93
BDT Million
445 444 442 441 429
GDP From Mining 630.83
BHD Million
586 596 599 585 573
GDP From Public Administration 399.49
BHD Million
401 400 399 398 388
GDP From Services 1747.50
BHD Million
1786 1792 1797 1801 1723
GDP From Transport 232.10
BHD Million
234 235 235 235 227
GDP From Utilities 45.10
BHD Million
42.56 42.79 43.37 43.06 42.09
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5
Employed Persons 649630.00
647570 646471 645391 644398 632768
Population 1.42
Million
1.4 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.64
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.8 2 2.1 2 2.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 128.40
Index Points
129 129 129 129 128
GDP Deflator 101.26
Index Points
99.62 101 102 103 106
Inflation Rate Mom -1.60
percent
0.2 0.22 0.17 0.18 0.18
CPI Housing Utilities 114.30
Index Points
114 113 112 112 108
CPI Transportation 118.00
Index Points
119 118 118 118 114
Food Inflation 4.60
percent
3.15 3.05 2.87 2.79 2.7
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 2 2.25 2.5 3.25
Interbank Rate 2.78
percent
2.76 2.75 2.76 2.77 2.87
Money Supply M0 541.80
BHD Million
538 538 537 536 532
Money Supply M2 10578.00
BHD Million
10604 10605 10599 10591 10524
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24 2.06
Loan Growth 1.98
percent
3.9 4.92 5.73 6.42 9.26
Loans To Private Sector 4603.60
BHD Million
4569 4540 4514 4490 4348
Money Supply M3 12522.00
BHD Million
12581 12592 12589 12580 12489
Money Supply M1 3360.00
BHD Million
3360 3358 3356 3354 3337
Reverse Repo Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.62 2 3
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1056.60
BHD Million
1037 1019 1024 1024 1034
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -302.20
BHD Million
391 183 -25.37 -234 -224
Exports 4807.00
BHD Million
4976 4606 4236 3866 1118
Imports 5109.20
BHD Million
5186 5106 5027 4947 5452
Current Account -561.30
BHD Million
-359 -308 -258 -208 474
Current Account to GDP -4.70
percent
-3 -3 0.86 -3 -1.7
Gold Reserves 4.67
Tonnes
4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67
Terrorism Index 3.67
3.32 3.13 2.94 2.76 1.07
Capital Flows 582.90
BHD Million
337 238 138 38.14 -649
Crude Oil Production 41.00
BBL/D/1K
40.48 40.43 40.38 40.34 39.97
Foreign Direct Investment 106.00
BHD Million
-22.85 91.3 205 320 335
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 82.10
percent
96 96 86.45 96 102
Government Budget -17.70
percent of GDP
-14.39 -14.06 -13.72 -13.38 -9.14
Government Spending 1833.00
BHD Million
1803 1796 1790 1783 1311
Government Debt 10512.00
BHD Million
11102 11770 12002 12232 12934
Military Expenditure 1386.10
USD Million
1409 1392 1375 1358 1197
Government Budget Value -1505.10
BHD Million
-1351 -1312 -1273 -1235 -916
Government Revenues 2177.50
BHD Million
2008 1995 1982 1969 1716
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50
BHD Million
3622 3630 3638 3646 3300
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Changes in Inventories 197.00
BHD Million
119 128 136 145 126
Car Registrations 480.00
Hundreds
446 456 466 476 428
Internet Speed 7922.65
KBps
9897 9911 10065 10007 7351
IP Addresses 87840.00
IP
90755 92036 92609 93470 98854
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Competitiveness Rank 44.00
44 44 44 44 39
Ease of Doing Business 66.00
64 63 62 60 41
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
49 48 48 47 48
Corruption Rank 70.00
55 56 58 59 61
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 4798.90
BHD Million
4679 4632 4585 5181 5507
Consumer Credit 3734.60
BHD Million
3750 3746 3738 3729 3652
Bank Lending Rate 5.02
percent
5.07 5.1 5.13 5.16 5.45
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12.33 12.33 12.33 12.33 12.49
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 29.46
mm
14.89 3.15 0.01 7.34 6.63
Temperature 18.37
celsius
17.66 29.71 33.85 22.84 26.59