This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.10 0.6 -0.7 1.4 2.4 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 0.80 3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 3.75 percent
Balance of Trade -263.20 -300 -200 -200 -200 500 BHD Million
Government Debt to GDP 90.60 96 99 99 99 102 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Stock Market 1309.16
points
1210 1210 1210 1210 1080
Currency 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.10
percent
0.6 -0.7 1.4 2.4 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40
percent
1.7 1.3 0.8 2.1 2.8
GDP 35.31
USD Billion
36 36.75 36.75 36.75 37
GDP Constant Prices 3224.55
BHD Million
3116 3079 3250 3195 3271
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3043.30
BHD Million
3095 3083 3068 3107 3249
GDP per capita 22111.50
USD
22287 22352 22352 22352 22790
GDP per capita PPP 43290.70
USD
43396 43652 43652 43652 44002
GDP From Agriculture 8.87
BHD Million
9.08 9.3 8.94 9.06 9.53
GDP From Construction 229.76
BHD Million
228 231 232 224 239
GDP From Manufacturing 466.45
BDT Million
464 471 470 463 487
GDP From Mining 591.80
BHD Million
527 490 597 619 553
GDP From Public Administration 442.12
BHD Million
415 409 446 451 436
GDP From Services 1857.04
BHD Million
1821 1808 1872 1810 1911
GDP From Transport 228.94
BHD Million
226 225 231 239 238
GDP From Utilities 44.50
BHD Million
43.22 42.95 44.86 46.05 45.37
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5
Employed Persons 650047.00
679000 680000 687000 691000 735000
Population 1.50
Million
1.56 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.69
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 131.50
Index Points
132 136 137 136 141
GDP Deflator 101.26
Index Points
102 103 103 103 104
Inflation Rate Mom -0.80
percent
1.6 1.7 0.15 0.16 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 118.80
Index Points
118 122 122 123 126
CPI Transportation 136.30
Index Points
122 139 140 141 130
Food Inflation 0.70
percent
2.6 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.9
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.75 2.75 3 3.25 3.75
Interbank Rate 3.68
percent
3.95 3.95 4.2 4.45 4.95
Money Supply M0 524.50
BHD Million
607 624 636 675 745
Money Supply M2 10703.00
BHD Million
10690 10720 10755 10780 10900
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.25
Loan Growth 10.10
percent
9.7 10.2 10.3 10.3 11.2
Loans To Private Sector 4943.20
BHD Million
5370 5500 5700 5900 6750
Reverse Repo Rate 2.25
percent
2 2.63 2.81 3 3
Money Supply M3 12415.00
BHD Million
12600 12570 12620 12690 12850
Money Supply M1 3374.00
BHD Million
3350 3400 3430 3460 3550
Foreign Exchange Reserves 558.90
BHD Million
725 745 826 613 850
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2362.30
BHD Million
2580 2610 2680 2720 2910
Banks Balance Sheet 192692.10
USD Million
190500 190700 190800 190760 192500
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -263.20
BHD Million
-300 -200 -200 -200 500
Exports 5781.40
BHD Million
6500 7000 7000 7000 7000
Imports 6044.60
BHD Million
6800 7200 7200 7200 6500
Current Account -522.10
BHD Million
-317 -61.6 -61.6 -61.6 95.5
Current Account to GDP -4.60
percent
-3.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 1.5
Gold Reserves 4.70
Tonnes
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Terrorism Index 3.67
3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
Foreign Direct Investment 195.10
BHD Million
230 275 275 275 310
Capital Flows 362.90
BHD Million
150 -185 -185 -185 -330
Crude Oil Production 40.00
BBL/D/1K
40 40 40 40 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 90.60
percent
96 99 99 99 102
Government Budget -13.20
percent of GDP
-11 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -6
Government Spending 1833.00
BHD Million
1864 1857 1848 1871 1957
Government Debt 11501.00
BHD Million
11000 11300 11800 12000 13500
Military Expenditure 1384.03
USD Million
1360 1351 1330 1330 1290
Government Budget Value -1505.10
BHD Million
-1490 -1565 -1565 -1565 -1640
Government Revenues 2177.50
BHD Million
2210 2295 2295 2295 2350
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50
BHD Million
3700 3860 3860 3860 3990
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Changes in Inventories 197.00
BHD Million
186 223 223 223 253
Car Registrations 428.00
Hundreds
442 478 478 478 508
Internet Speed 7922.65
KBps
8350 8410 8550 8630 9900
IP Addresses 87840.00
IP
86000 85800 85200 84800 84200
Competitiveness Index 63.63
Points
64.13 64.13 64.13 64.13 66.63
Competitiveness Rank 50.00
50 50 50 50 50
Ease of Doing Business 62.00
68 71 71 71 72
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
36 36 36 36 36
Corruption Rank 133.00
133 133 133 133 133
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Spending 4798.90
BHD Million
4880 4861 4837 4900 5122
Consumer Credit 4058.10
BHD Million
3978 4000 4020 4045 4500
Gasoline Prices 0.37
USD/Liter
0.36 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.32
Bank Lending Rate 5.35
percent
5.54 5.54 5.79 6.04 6.54
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 29.46
mm
7.34 14.92 6.04 6.04 6.63
Temperature 18.37
celsius
22.84 17.7 33.41 32.98 26.59



Bahrain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook