Bahrain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.80 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 4 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -263.20 -300 -300 -300 -200 500 BHD Million
Government Debt to GDP 90.60 96 96 96 99 102 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Stock Market 1267.26
points
1240 1220 1210 1210 1080
Currency 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.80
percent
1.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.40
percent
3.5 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.8
GDP 31.86
USD Billion
31.05 31.12 35 36 37
GDP Constant Prices 3073.29
BHD Million
3147 3198 3156 3130 3384
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3043.30
BHD Million
3097 3092 3241 3129 3475
GDP per capita 22435.60
USD
22685 22387 22465 22283 22344
GDP per capita PPP 44456.20
USD
44951 44732 44514 44152 44274
GDP From Agriculture 23.94
BHD Million
35.56 35.51 24.59 35.93 26.36
GDP From Construction 223.71
BHD Million
219 222 230 220 246
GDP From Manufacturing 455.80
BDT Million
454 461 468 459 502
GDP From Mining 542.64
BHD Million
624 641 557 608 598
GDP From Public Administration 401.91
BHD Million
402 406 413 399 443
GDP From Services 1799.70
BHD Million
1778 1775 1806 1769 1936
GDP From Transport 219.80
BHD Million
231 236 226 230 242
GDP From Utilities 42.50
BHD Million
43.55 45.82 43.65 42.87 46.8
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5
Employed Persons 649765.00
648002 646976 646071 645109 634860
Population 1.50
Million
1.43 1.45 1.48 1.49 1.66
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent
3.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.10
Index Points
133 135 133 137 144
GDP Deflator 101.26
Index Points
101 102 103 103 106
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 118.70
Index Points
120 123 119 125 128
CPI Transportation 135.20
Index Points
129 128 122 134 132
Food Inflation 1.50
percent
3.02 2.76 2.7 2.65 2.63
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2.25 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.25
Interbank Rate 3.18
percent
3.23 3.23 3.48 3.73 4.23
Money Supply M0 556.50
BHD Million
538 537 536 536 529
Money Supply M2 10600.00
BHD Million
10605 10599 10591 10583 10490
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1.37 1.38 1.4 1.51 2.56
Loan Growth 7.32
percent
4.92 5.73 6.42 7 9.79
Loans To Private Sector 4748.20
BHD Million
4820 4686 4455 4350 4388
Reverse Repo Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.24 2 1.24 3
Money Supply M3 12429.00
BHD Million
12565 12444 12367 12342 12397
Money Supply M1 3425.00
BHD Million
3380 3429 3410 3400 3410
Foreign Exchange Reserves 530.70
BHD Million
1175 539 1138 693 936
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -263.20
BHD Million
-300 -300 -300 -200 500
Exports 5781.40
BHD Million
6500 6500 6500 7000 7000
Imports 6044.60
BHD Million
6800 6800 6800 7200 6500
Current Account -522.10
BHD Million
-183 -172 -161 -67.73 134
Current Account to GDP -4.60
percent
-3 -3 -3 -2.5 -1.7
Gold Reserves 4.70
Tonnes
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Terrorism Index 3.67
3.33 3.41 3.5 3.41 3.95
Foreign Direct Investment 195.10
BHD Million
129 176 222 236 317
Capital Flows 362.90
BHD Million
238 138 38.14 -33.94 -649
Crude Oil Production 40.00
BBL/D/1K
40.85 40.79 40.72 40.66 40.21
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 90.60
percent
96 96 96 99 102
Government Budget -13.20
percent of GDP
-13.2 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2 -13.2
Government Spending 1833.00
BHD Million
1865 1862 1952 1884 2093
Government Debt 10587.00
BHD Million
9784 9784 9784 9784 9784
Military Expenditure 1384.03
USD Million
1377 1341 1305 1296 1219
Government Budget Value -1505.10
BHD Million
-1424 -1419 -1332 -1433 -1036
Government Revenues 2177.50
BHD Million
2206 2219 2232 2211 2264
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50
BHD Million
3630 3638 3646 3644 3300
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Changes in Inventories 197.00
BHD Million
128 136 145 144 126
Car Registrations 471.00
Hundreds
466 461 455 452 425
Internet Speed 7922.65
KBps
9482 9771 10053 10328 12946
IP Addresses 87840.00
IP
92036 92609 93470 93982 98854
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Competitiveness Rank 44.00
44 44 44 38 39
Ease of Doing Business 66.00
63 62 60 59 41
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
36 36 36 36 36
Corruption Rank 133.00
133 133 133 133 133
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Spending 4798.90
BHD Million
4883 4876 5111 4933 5480
Consumer Credit 3901.40
BHD Million
3746 3738 3729 3719 3615
Gasoline Prices 0.37
USD/Liter
0.32 0.3 0.29 0.27 0.19
Bank Lending Rate 5.22
percent
5 5 5 5 5
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12.33 12.33 12.33 12.33 12.49
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
6.84 6.84 6.84 6.84 6.58
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 29.46
mm
3.15 0.01 7.34 14.92 6.63
Temperature 18.37
celsius
29.71 33.85 22.84 17.7 26.59