Bahrain | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 0.5 0.8 -0.6 1.1 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.40 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -302.20 240 232 13.06 -206 -522 BHD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 82.10 90 90 96 96 102 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 1307.95 1300 1290 1280 1260 1120 points [+]
Currency 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.32 [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 0.5 0.8 -0.6 1.1 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90 1.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 31.86 33 34 31.73 31.58 37 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 11917.00 12299 12387 12509 12631 13844 BHD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2634.70 2639 2518 2512 2506 2713 BHD Million [+]
GDP per capita 22435.60 22539 22584 22676 22768 23254 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44456.20 44732 44514 44505 44495 44152 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 34.95 35.23 35.56 35.41 35.26 34.99 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 218.05 224 226 228 230 252 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 446.13 441 441 442 442 434 BDT Million [+]
GDP From Mining 590.97 593 551 594 586 579 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 375.43 371 370 370 369 369 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Services 1699.50 1722 1735 1746 1758 1878 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 224.20 228 230 233 235 258 BHD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 41.70 42.91 41.74 42.2 42.53 43.05 BHD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 652977.00 663722 676005 683696 688940 763292 [+]
Population 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.5 1.64 Million [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.40 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 129.60 130 130 131 132 138 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 101.13 98.73 98.09 99 99.9 110 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 117.50 118 118 118 118 118 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 125.60 126 126 126 126 126 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.70 1.4 2.01 1.73 1.81 1.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.12 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.45 2.42 2.5 2.52 2.53 2.68 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 537.20 538 537 537 537 537 BHD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10432.00 10529 10581 10630 10678 11042 BHD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00 1.11 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.09 percent [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 953.90 945 943 946 947 948 BHD Million [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 1.25 15 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent [+]
Money Supply M3 12382.00 12508 12578 12646 12712 13282 BHD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3469.00 3508 3509 3510 3511 3511 BHD Million [+]
Loan Growth -0.53 -0.48 -0.54 -0.54 -0.53 -0.53 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 4239.00 4222 4226 4223 4225 4224 BHD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -302.20 240 232 13.06 -206 -522 BHD Million [+]
Exports 4807.00 4422 3995 3934 3873 4956 BHD Million [+]
Imports 5109.20 5615 5566 5810 6054 6825 BHD Million [+]
Current Account -561.30 -172 -161 -67.73 25.74 429 BHD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -4.70 -3.6 -3.6 -3 -3 -1.7 percent [+]
Gold Reserves 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 Tonnes [+]
Capital Flows 582.90 138 38.14 -33.94 -106 -665 BHD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 41.00 40.89 40.89 40.89 40.89 40.89 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 106.00 176 222 236 249 312 BHD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.21 3.67 3.42 3.17 2.92 0.65 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 82.10 90 90 96 96 102 percent [+]
Government Budget -17.70 -13.78 -13.12 -13.53 -13.93 -11.11 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 1844.00 1851 1854 1859 1864 1880 BHD Million [+]
Government Debt 8956.00 9579 9886 10190 10492 13350 BHD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50 4263 4300 4420 4539 5447 BHD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1386.10 1383 1363 1358 1354 1329 USD Million [+]
Government Budget Value -1505.10 -1313 -1259 -1327 -1395 -1181 BHD Million [+]
Government Revenues 2177.50 2219 2232 2211 2190 2280 BHD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Changes in Inventories 112.00 133 130 131 132 153 BHD Million [+]
Car Registrations 480.00 466 476 473 469 433 Hundreds [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.47 4.5 4.5 4.42 4.4 4.45 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 48.00 43 43 48 49 49 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 63.00 65 64 62 61 45 [+]
Corruption Index 43.00 48 47 47 47 49 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 70.00 58 59 60 60 58 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Spending 4774.10 5016 5016 4636 4576 5507 BHD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 3692.90 3799 3862 3924 3986 4574 BHD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.89 4.79 4.66 4.57 4.49 3.59 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 184.00 190 193 199 197 195 TENS [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.00 9 9 9 9 9 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 percent [+]