Azerbaijan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.5 5.47 5.4 5.57 5 percent
Inflation Rate 4.00 4.1 3.8 4.2 4 6 percent
Interest Rate 13.00 11 11 9 9 7 percent
Balance of Trade 2291957.00 2137623 2051411 2203070 2172229 2171051 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 42 42 42 37 34 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.70
1.72 1.75 1.78 1.81 1.94
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.10
percent
1.4 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.6
GDP 37.85
USD Billion
34.5 31.95 58 67 75
GDP Constant Prices 17185.10
AZN Million
31749 50818 71257 11830 74718
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5328.60
AZN Million
3596 3407 4408 3441 4622
GDP per capita 5858.80
USD
5943 6118 6118 6138 6159
GDP per capita PPP 15994.00
USD
16186 16014 16680 17050 17101
Gross National Product 52641.20
AZN Million
53378 53431 53163 53957 55745
GDP From Agriculture 346.10
AZN Million
416 665 333 671 349
GDP From Construction 939.90
AZN Million
567 902 924 911 969
GDP From Manufacturing 345.40
AZN Million
355 295 333 298 349
GDP From Mining 3996.00
AZN Million
2475 3537 4139 3572 4340
GDP From Public Administration 233.00
AZN Million
142 202 236 204 248
GDP From Services 701.00
AZN Million
609 590 681 596 714
GDP From Transport 928.80
AZN Million
762 919 820 928 860
GDP From Utilities 39.00
AZN Million
32.85 29.23 36.66 29.52 38.44
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10
percent
5.5 5.47 5.4 5.57 5
Employed Persons 4759.90
Thousand
4784 4808 4832 4849 5096
Unemployed Persons 252.80
Thousand
256 259 261 264 292
Minimum Wages 130.00
AZN/Month
130 130 130 145 150
Population 9.80
Million
9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8
Living Wage Family 755.00
AZN/Month
755 755 755 775 775
Living Wage Individual 470.00
AZN/Month
470 470 470 470 470
Wages 519.80
AZN/Month
532 535 540 543 570
Wages High Skilled 649.00
AZN/Month
670 670 670 680 680
Wages In Manufacturing 542.90
AZN/Month
580 580 580 590 620
Wages Low Skilled 372.00
AZN/Month
400 400 400 415 415
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 60.50
60 60 60 61 60
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 3.8 4.2 4 6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1
Food Inflation 4.50
percent
4.14 3.12 2.54 2.3 2.05
Export Prices 83.70
Index Points
75.24 72.48 69.72 71.87 141
GDP Deflator 111.00
Index Points
109 108 107 107 107
Consumer Price Index Cpi 153.00
Index Points
155 156 159 159 177
Import Prices 102.70
Index Points
102 103 103 103 103
Producer Prices 106.60
Index Points
108 119 147 116 166
Producer Prices Change 16.30
percent
15 12 8.7 8.5 5.5
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 13.00
percent
11 11 9 9 7
Money Supply M0 7311.70
AZN Million
7403 7339 7268 7195 6494
Money Supply M2 12744.90
AZN Million
12107 11993 11881 11772 10730
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70
percent
8.23 7.85 7.48 7.48 7.04
Money Supply M1 10434.40
AZN Million
10834 10766 10674 10578 9648
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5387.30
USD Million
5474 5494 5504 5509 5513
Money Supply M3 22868.10
AZN Million
23454 22060 20944 21002 21802
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2291957.00
USD Thousand
2137623 2051411 2203070 2172229 2171051
Exports 4684144.00
USD Thousand
4516953 4419069 4594361 4542685 4543098
Imports 2392187.00
USD Thousand
2379329 2367658 2374678 2370456 2372047
Current Account 621.90
USD Million
298 309 259 344 290
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent
1.3 1.3 1.3 3.2 4
Capital Flows 480.00
USD Million
95.76 89.86 94.19 107 123
Crude Oil Production 807.00
BBL/D/1K
796 796 796 796 796
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
-4.09 -4.81 -5.08 -5.46 -6.93
Foreign Direct Investment 1214.00
USD Million
1300 1293 1287 1287 1292
Terrorism Index 1.15
1.59 1.74 1.9 1.84 0.94
Tourist Arrivals 8949.00
9500 9600 9700 11600 15800
Remittances 200.00
USD Million
137 132 124 119 96.36
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent
42 42 42 37 34
Government Budget -1.60
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
Government Revenues 4563.00
AZN Million
13666 7689 9358 10330 9475
Fiscal Expenditure 4408.00
AZN Million
14568 7954 10189 10683 10002
Military Expenditure 1931.80
USD Million
2507 2303 2099 2092 1899
Government Spending 2430.00
AZN Million
1765 2062 2547 2082 2671
Government Spending To GDP 25.10
percent of GDP
25.98 24.74 23.51 22.66 16.64
Government Budget Value 155.00
AZN Million
-902 -265 -633 -353 -527
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production -0.50
percent
1.02 0.18 -0.64 -0.54 0.42
Manufacturing Production 4.00
percent
3.09 2.57 2.06 2.39 0.79
Internet Speed 5671.61
KBps
5549 5552 5551 5552 5551
IP Addresses 319679.00
IP
349183 353169 357058 359035 374863
Leading Economic Index 2.30
percent
0.67 -0.11 1.1 -0.17 3.5
Mining Production -5.00
percent
-6.41 -6.4 -6.4 -6.4 -6.4
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
31 31 31 32 34
Corruption Rank 122.00
123 120 117 118 123
Ease of Doing Business 57.00
62 62 62 62 63
Car Registrations 1136983.00
1144402 1140022 1135642 1133210 1037063
Changes In Inventories 105.00
AZN Million
34.84 48.42 59.59 53.14 31.91
Competitiveness Index 4.69
Points
4.57 4.57 4.57 4.68 4.68
Competitiveness Rank 35.00
39 39 39 39 41
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent
7.32 6.48 5.64 6.58 12.06
Gasoline Prices 0.53
USD/Liter
0.5 0.46 0.43 0.5 0.29
Disposable Personal Income 41560.10
AZN Million
42868 43768 44669 45278 53813
Consumer Spending 11560.40
AZN Million
10940 11665 9216 11780 9663
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 29.24
mm
53.9 32.11 34.63 30.83 38.69
Temperature 1.48
celsius
15.19 21.47 6.77 1.37 11.46