Azerbaijan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.00 3.8 4.2 4 4.5 6 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 11 9 9 8 7 percent
Balance of Trade 2512400.00 1757447 2201230 2233319 2168424 2153241 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 42 42 37 37 34 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.69
1.72 1.74 1.77 1.79 1.9
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent
1.5 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.6
GDP 40.75
USD Billion
42 42 57 57 65
GDP Constant Prices 37009.10
AZN Million
50818 71257 17615 38045 74718
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2301.60
AZN Million
3407 5414 2359 2366 5677
GDP per capita 5805.10
USD
5985 5985 6138 6138 6159
GDP per capita PPP 15847.40
USD
16023 16023 16150 16150 17101
Gross National Product 52641.20
AZN Million
53431 53483 53957 54115 56081
GDP From Agriculture 168.00
AZN Million
665 352 172 173 369
GDP From Construction 331.00
AZN Million
902 955 339 340 1001
GDP From Manufacturing 253.50
AZN Million
295 351 260 261 368
GDP From Mining 2404.80
AZN Million
3537 4060 2465 2472 4257
GDP From Public Administration 109.40
AZN Million
202 237 112 112 248
GDP From Services 512.60
AZN Million
590 712 525 527 747
GDP From Transport 734.70
AZN Million
919 944 753 755 990
GDP From Utilities 28.50
AZN Million
29.23 39.62 29.21 29.3 41.55
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 4.5
Employed Persons 4759.90
Thousand
4808 4832 4849 4866 5096
Unemployed Persons 252.80
Thousand
259 261 264 266 292
Minimum Wages 130.00
AZN/Month
130 130 145 138 150
Population 9.80
Million
9.87 9.9 9.92 9.95 10.2
Living Wage Family 755.00
AZN/Month
755 755 775 755 775
Living Wage Individual 470.00
AZN/Month
470 470 470 470 470
Wages 541.00
AZN/Month
535 540 543 566 570
Wages High Skilled 649.00
AZN/Month
670 670 670 613 680
Wages In Manufacturing 542.90
AZN/Month
580 580 590 580 620
Wages Low Skilled 372.00
AZN/Month
400 400 415 440 415
Retirement Age Men 63.50
63 63 63.75 64 64
Retirement Age Women 60.50
60 60 60.75 61 62
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00
percent
3.8 4.2 4 4.5 6
Inflation Rate Mom -0.70
percent
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.38 1
Food Inflation 3.00
percent
3.5 3.6 4.5 4.7 4.5
Export Prices 83.70
Index Points
72.48 69.72 71.87 74.02 141
GDP Deflator 111.30
Index Points
108 107 107 107 106
Consumer Price Index Cpi 153.62
Index Points
156 159 159 161 177
Import Prices 102.70
Index Points
103 103 103 103 103
Producer Prices 100.90
Index Points
119 112 109 120 126
Producer Prices Change 18.80
percent
12 8.7 8.5 19.14 5.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
11 9 9 8 7
Money Supply M0 7053.50
AZN Million
6911 6852 6814 6790 6745
Money Supply M2 12599.00
AZN Million
12732 12764 12788 12803 12828
Deposit Interest Rate 8.43
percent
9.43 7.43 7.43 6.43 5.43
Money Supply M1 10691.70
AZN Million
11142 11265 11347 11400 11502
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5508.00
USD Million
5677 5699 5712 5718 5723
Money Supply M3 22459.50
AZN Million
23297 23704 24110 24516 28573
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2512400.00
USD Thousand
1757447 2201230 2233319 2168424 2153241
Exports 4703500.00
USD Thousand
4437791 4610979 4562553 4570700 4562114
Imports 2191100.00
USD Thousand
2680344 2394907 2329234 2402276 2408874
Current Account 1556.00
USD Million
1195 1231 1460 1309 1317
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent
1.3 1.3 3.2 3.2 4
Capital Flows 463.00
USD Million
411 326 249 285 294
Crude Oil Production 748.00
BBL/D/1K
769 768 768 768 768
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
-4.81 -5.08 -5.46 -5.9 -6.93
Foreign Direct Investment 1214.00
USD Million
1064 1063 1041 1027 1004
Terrorism Index 1.15
1.74 1.9 1.84 1.77 0.94
Tourist Arrivals 8949.00
9600 9700 11600 13500 15800
Remittances 159.00
USD Million
164 165 165 165 164
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent
42 42 37 37 34
Government Budget -1.60
percent of GDP
-1.6 -1.2 -1.94 -1.87 -0.8
Government Revenues 9821.60
AZN Million
9110 8067 8578 8639 8541
Fiscal Expenditure 9524.30
AZN Million
9333 8227 8642 8715 8633
Military Expenditure 1478.58
USD Million
1466 1471 1451 1432 1375
Government Spending 1712.20
AZN Million
2062 2469 1755 1760 2589
Government Spending To GDP 25.10
percent of GDP
24.74 23.51 22.66 21.82 16.64
Government Budget Value 297.30
AZN Million
-223 -127 -64.07 -76.61 -92.3
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production -0.50
percent
0.15 -0.68 -0.6 -0.53 0.21
Manufacturing Production 4.00
percent
4.75 5.14 5.21 5.28 4.88
Internet Speed 5671.61
KBps
5552 5551 5552 5551 5551
IP Addresses 319679.00
IP
353169 357058 359035 361838 374863
Leading Economic Index 1.30
percent
1.04 1.1 1.04 1.04 3.5
Mining Production -5.00
percent
-5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
31 31 32 32 34
Corruption Rank 122.00
120 117 118 118 123
Ease of Doing Business 57.00
62 62 62 61 63
Car Registrations 1136983.00
1154073 1151974 1157338 1162702 1231067
Changes In Inventories 37.20
AZN Million
27.86 25.76 26.55 26.25 26.33
Competitiveness Index 4.69
Points
4.57 4.57 4.65 4.68 4.68
Competitiveness Rank 35.00
33 33 35 35 33
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent
6.48 5.64 6.58 7.52 12.06
Gasoline Prices 0.53
USD/Liter
0.5 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.24
Disposable Personal Income 41560.10
AZN Million
43768 44669 45278 45887 53813
Consumer Spending 10587.70
AZN Million
11665 11745 10852 10884 12316
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.24
mm
32.11 34.63 30.83 37.2 38.69
Temperature 1.48
celsius
21.47 6.77 1.37 20.03 11.46