Azerbaijan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.72 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 13.90 9.6 8.3 7.7 11 4.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1589231.00 1547231 1649605 1681824 1696632 1940249 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 37.70 40 42 42 29.47 34 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.70 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.63 1.45 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.30 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 4 percent [+]
GDP 37.85 52 36.82 36.65 36.47 75 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 43713.20 23252 20712 21475 21792 21747 AZN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4364.50 4177 3654 3578 3962 3895 AZN Million [+]
GDP per capita 5858.80 6104 5807 5796 5786 6159 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15994.00 16662 15805 15768 15731 17101 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 329.90 329 150 402 627 326 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 915.40 891 782 809 898 867 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 329.80 318 262 364 306 307 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 4098.60 3221 3221 3221 3221 3221 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 233.90 231 127 129 205 223 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Services 674.60 652 536 592 530 598 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 812.10 806 686 689 789 789 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 36.30 35.62 29.53 30.49 27.14 33.93 AZN Million [+]
Gross National Product 52641.20 50878 50179 49480 48781 33876 AZN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.72 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4759.90 4838 4852 4867 4881 5010 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 252.80 266 270 274 278 323 Thousand [+]
Minimum Wages 116.00 103 111 115 119 116 AZN/Month [+]
Population 9.70 9.8 9.83 9.86 9.88 10.12 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 62.91 62.91 62.91 62.91 62.67 [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 59.99 59.91 59.87 59.83 58.93 [+]
Wages 523.10 525 525 524 523 512 AZN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 650.00 601 597 593 590 577 AZN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 527.90 566 574 581 589 654 AZN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 579.00 447 461 460 455 449 AZN/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 537.90 532 532 532 532 532 AZN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 443.80 426 426 426 426 426 AZN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 13.90 9.6 8.3 7.7 11 4.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 99.89 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 46.00 36 28 16 12 4.5 percent [+]
Import Prices 102.70 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 17.90 17.09 16.41 15.77 15.18 11.46 percent [+]
Export Prices 83.70 69.72 71.87 74.02 76.17 102 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 117.80 109 108 107 107 106 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index Cpi 148.70 148 147 146 145 139 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.9 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7001.10 7093 7055 6993 6924 6356 AZN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11137.50 10846 10727 10627 10533 9799 AZN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70 8.58 8.94 9.3 9.66 11.01 percent [+]
Money Supply M3 20824.40 20696 20635 20579 20524 20046 AZN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 9288.70 9340 9283 9217 9149 8618 AZN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5033.10 5544 5832 6092 6325 7561 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1589231.00 1547231 1649605 1681824 1696632 1940249 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 3555275.00 3625857 3620887 3625815 3635994 3687585 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 1966044.00 2160339 1906891 1987591 1919748 1941957 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account 405.00 387 481 536 577 917 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 0.5 1.3 1.3 -1.83 4 percent [+]
Capital Flows 89.31 193 152 235 157 130 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 748.00 754 751 749 746 723 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 168.00 96.28 111 111 102 90.36 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.35 1.86 1.96 2.06 2.16 1.1 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 8949.00 9700 11600 13500 15400 19300 [+]
Gold Reserves 20.00 13.34 13.25 11.5 10.25 15.12 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1623.00 1633 1617 1597 1589 1497 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.70 40 42 42 29.47 34 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.40 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.88 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 10788.80 7210 7285 7709 7630 7596 AZN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 11327.50 6667 6858 7206 7143 7121 AZN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1931.80 1767 1721 1675 1629 1006 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2522.10 2367 2066 1779 1927 2054 AZN Million [+]
Government Spending To GDP 29.60 29.25 29.17 29.09 29.01 28.34 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 538.70 -220 340 510 -460 -120 AZN Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production -0.40 -0.54 -0.45 -0.35 -0.26 0.21 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.00 2.06 2.39 2.72 3.06 0.45 percent [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 30 30 30 29 29 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 130 130 129 129 129 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 65.00 59 59 59 58 59 [+]
Car Registrations 1136983.00 1135642 1133210 1130779 1128347 1075402 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 21.80 13.95 12.57 11.45 10.35 4.78 AZN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.55 4.51 4.52 4.52 4.53 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 37.00 40 40 41 41 46 [+]
Mining Production -6.40 -2.3 -1.51 -1.14 -0.97 -0.82 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index -1.10 0.5 3.52 4.79 5.86 3.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 4.86 5.81 6.75 7.69 8.28 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 41560.10 43979 44280 44580 44881 46433 AZN Million [+]
Consumer Confidence 23.80 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.91 [+]
Consumer Spending 9125.20 8890 8806 8805 8780 8694 AZN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.56 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20.35 20.43 20.51 20.59 21.55 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00 25.58 25.71 25.84 25.97 26.98 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]