Azerbaijan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5 percent
Inflation Rate 12.90 12 11 8.3 10 4.3 percent
Interest Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 6 percent
Balance of Trade 922539.00 1269845 1360628 1355903 1381101 1819492 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 37.70 42 42 32.6 42 34 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.70
1.72 1.78 1.84 1.9 2.16
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.10
percent
1.3 1.9 2 2.4 4
GDP 37.85
USD Billion
44.15 40.57 58 58 75
GDP Constant Prices 70135.10
AZN Million
36022 22869 21803 22479 22727
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3546.30
AZN Million
3520 4050 3998 3515 3854
GDP per capita 5858.80
USD
5943 5880 6118 6118 6159
GDP per capita PPP 15994.00
USD
16186 16014 16680 16680 17101
Gross National Product 52641.20
AZN Million
54005 52442 50878 50179 33876
GDP From Agriculture 410.20
AZN Million
411 628 326 155 322
GDP From Construction 558.70
AZN Million
658 917 855 656 837
GDP From Manufacturing 350.40
AZN Million
237 349 310 309 299
GDP From Mining 2440.80
AZN Million
2460 3740 4168 2423 4178
GDP From Public Administration 140.40
AZN Million
121 137 208 227 221
GDP From Services 600.90
AZN Million
599 528 642 523 613
GDP From Transport 751.60
AZN Million
693 737 811 793 785
GDP From Utilities 32.40
AZN Million
29.94 32.43 27.11 34.77 33.64
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10
percent
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5
Employed Persons 4759.90
Thousand
4758 4785 4811 4838 5010
Unemployed Persons 252.80
Thousand
257 260 263 266 323
Minimum Wages 130.00
AZN/Month
130 130 130 130 150
Population 9.70
Million
9.75 9.78 9.8 9.83 10.12
Living Wage Family 755.00
AZN/Month
755 755 755 755 755
Living Wage Individual 470.00
AZN/Month
470 470 470 470 470
Wages 525.00
AZN/Month
524 523 522 521 507
Wages High Skilled 649.00
AZN/Month
612 613 615 614 609
Wages In Manufacturing 527.90
AZN/Month
550 558 566 574 654
Wages Low Skilled 372.00
AZN/Month
440 443 446 449 435
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 59
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 12.90
percent
12 11 8.3 10 4.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
1.1 1.4 0.52 1 0.9
Food Inflation 16.40
percent
15.79 15.15 14.56 14.02 10.01
Export Prices 83.70
Index Points
75.24 72.48 69.72 71.87 102
GDP Deflator 117.50
Index Points
107 107 106 106 106
Consumer Price Index Cpi 148.70
Index Points
146 145 144 144 139
Import Prices 102.70
Index Points
102 102 102 103 103
Producer Prices 106.60
Index Points
101 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices Change 46.00
percent
28 16 12 8.7 4.5
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 6
Money Supply M0 7149.40
AZN Million
7136 7080 7014 6945 6232
Money Supply M2 12044.70
AZN Million
12352 12293 12188 12075 10874
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70
percent
9.1 8.84 8.58 8.94 11.01
Money Supply M1 9402.40
AZN Million
9332 9263 9195 9128 8715
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5101.20
USD Million
5466 5567 5664 5758 6324
Money Supply M3 20556.30
AZN Million
20340 20286 20232 20179 19817
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 922539.00
USD Thousand
1269845 1360628 1355903 1381101 1819492
Exports 3680432.00
USD Thousand
3679719 3678479 3690986 3697502 3738091
Imports 2757893.00
USD Thousand
2183181 2095267 2376601 2359586 2213034
Current Account 277.00
USD Million
447 504 542 589 993
Current Account to GDP -3.20
percent
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 4
Capital Flows 119.00
USD Million
64.87 95.76 89.86 94.19 123
Crude Oil Production 748.00
BBL/D/1K
749 746 743 741 723
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
-5.12 0.5 3.8 7.36 21.44
Foreign Direct Investment 1501.00
USD Million
1425 1415 1411 1399 1369
Terrorism Index 1.15
1.8 2 2.21 2.13 1.55
Tourist Arrivals 8949.00
9400 9500 9600 9700 19300
Remittances 184.00
USD Million
135 137 132 124 96.36
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.70
percent
42 42 32.6 42 34
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-1.05 -1.27 -1.48 -1.69 -1.03
Government Revenues 16446.90
AZN Million
7667 6575 7981 8010 7822
Fiscal Expenditure 17588.40
AZN Million
7828 6361 7376 7508 7390
Military Expenditure 1931.80
USD Million
2521 2270 2018 1767 1006
Government Spending 1741.00
AZN Million
1718 2005 2271 1915 2114
Government Spending To GDP 29.60
percent of GDP
30.7 29.98 29.25 29.17 28.34
Government Budget Value 1141.50
AZN Million
340 510 -460 -180 -120
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production -0.40
percent
1.02 0.24 -0.54 -0.45 0.21
Manufacturing Production 4.00
percent
3.61 3.09 2.57 2.06 0.45
Internet Speed 5671.61
KBps
6035 6251 6926 6592 6400
IP Addresses 319679.00
IP
331676 328605 325240 320985 289909
Leading Economic Index 0.10
percent
2.09 3.55 4.77 1.1 3.5
Mining Production -5.70
percent
-1.66 -1.37 -1.21 -1.13 -1.05
Corruption Index 30.00
Points
29 30 30 30 29
Corruption Rank 123.00
115 120 125 130 129
Ease of Doing Business 57.00
58 57 57 57 58
Car Registrations 1136983.00
Cars
1133210 1130779 1128347 1125916 1075402
Changes In Inventories 17.50
AZN Million
12.38 11.42 10.34 9.48 5.55
Competitiveness Index 4.69
Points
4.57 4.57 4.57 4.57 4.64
Competitiveness Rank 35.00
39.29 39.29 39.29 39.29 39.78
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent
6.17 5.52 4.86 5.81 8.28
Gasoline Prices 0.53
USD/Liter
0.53 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.55
Disposable Personal Income 41560.10
AZN Million
41027 42011 42995 43979 46433
Consumer Spending 10789.00
AZN Million
9935 10110 10090 10083 9954
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00
percent
26 26 26 26 27
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 3
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 29.24
mm
30.77 53.9 32.11 34.63 38.69
Temperature 1.48
celsius
1.37 15.19 21.47 6.77 11.46