Azerbaijan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 6 5.8 5.8 5.5 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 13.80 12.8 10.8 9.6 8.3 4.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 15.00 15 15 12 10 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 1889873.00 1927487 1667980 1707772 1807486 1773984 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 37.70 40 40 40 42 34 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.79 1.77 2.04 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.90 -1.5 -0.8 0.9 1.3 4 percent [+]
GDP 53.05 47 47 52 41.22 75 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 25338.70 32031 32894 28163 29448 29700 AZN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4364.50 3548 4227 4167 3042 3827 AZN Million [+]
GDP per capita 6117.00 6095 6099 6104 6209 6159 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16698.90 16662 16662 16662 16951 17101 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 329.90 360 360 360 360 360 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 915.40 773 916 865 720 812 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 329.80 323 322 322 322 322 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 4098.60 2597 3657 4111 2613 4144 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 233.90 181 180 179 179 179 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Services 674.60 674 590 673 591 668 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 812.10 771 770 769 769 769 AZN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 36.30 36.3 32.46 36.3 32.46 36.3 AZN Million [+]
Gross National Product 57322.40 60123 60217 60310 60963 70712 AZN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.10 6 5.8 5.8 5.5 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4671.60 4702 4719 4736 4751 4967 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 243.70 244 247 250 252 273 Thousand [+]
Minimum Wages 116.00 103 103 103 119 116 AZN/Month [+]
Population 9.70 9.75 9.77 9.8 9.83 10.11 Million [+]
Retirement Age Men 63.00 62.99 62.99 62.99 63 63 [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 59.98 59.98 59.98 59.84 59.02 [+]
Wages 520.50 530 541 549 554 564 AZN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 650.00 664 665 665 665 666 AZN/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 527.90 550 558 566 574 654 AZN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 579.00 420 424 447 461 449 AZN/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 537.90 533 532 532 532 532 AZN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 443.80 426 426 426 426 426 AZN/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 13.80 12.8 10.8 9.6 8.3 4.3 percent [+]
Producer Prices 93.30 101 101 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -33.70 -2.5 0.8 2.4 4.1 2.9 percent [+]
Import Prices 102.70 102 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 18.20 18.25 19.08 19.57 19.95 20.72 percent [+]
Export Prices 83.70 75.24 72.48 69.72 71.87 102 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 123.60 118 112 109 108 106 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index Cpi 147.00 148 146 146 146 146 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 15.00 15 15 12 10 6 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6348.60 6448 6574 6661 6717 6821 AZN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11610.10 11879 12117 12316 12435 12639 AZN Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.70 8.23 7.85 7.48 7.48 6.81 percent [+]
Money Supply M3 21081.80 20982 21467 21858 22233 26322 AZN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 8955.40 9024 9231 9361 9447 9596 AZN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 4619.00 4827 4949 5015 5046 5073 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1889873.00 1927487 1667980 1707772 1807486 1773984 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 3555749.00 3598200 3473740 3596079 3526932 3554610 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 1665876.00 2201618 2029299 2172308 1769033 2088708 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account 380.21 276 205 147 336 225 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.20 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 4 percent [+]
Capital Flows 308.50 278 547 302 346 364 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 791.00 799 798 798 798 798 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 9.00 10.62 2.73 10.46 -0.06 5.65 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.35 1.79 1.82 1.86 1.96 1.1 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2009.00 8773 9833 10892 11099 19230 [+]
Gold Reserves 20.00 20.05 15.37 13.34 13.25 15.12 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1895.00 1924 1845 1965 1883 1922 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.70 40 40 40 42 34 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.40 -0.05 0.09 0.24 0.25 0.88 percent of GDP [+]
Government Revenues 6335.70 8520 9222 7789 8080 8184 AZN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 6724.10 8831 9051 7893 8232 8256 AZN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1931.80 2507 2303 2099 2092 1747 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2522.10 2119 2460 2827 2430 3240 AZN Million [+]
Government Spending To GDP 29.60 31.03 30.59 30.16 29.81 27.86 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 388.40 185 -77.52 -42.57 -5.84 -14.99 AZN Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production -0.40 0.99 0.2 -0.58 -0.51 0.05 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.00 4.37 4.75 5.14 5.21 5.39 percent [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 30 30 31 31 33 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 120 125 130 130 129 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 65.00 60 62 64 65 69 [+]
Car Registrations 1129596.00 1148305 1151317 1154329 1159828 1228760 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 21.80 23.06 24.15 22.08 21.67 22.49 AZN Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.55 4.51 4.51 4.51 4.55 4.55 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 37.00 40 40 40 37 37 [+]
Mining Production -7.40 -5.61 -6.14 -6.01 -6.05 -6.04 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.90 -0.6 0.2 0.5 -1.33 3.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50 7.83 7.03 6.23 7.25 9.63 percent [+]
Disposable Personal Income 37948.30 38573 39163 39752 40137 44680 AZN Million [+]
Consumer Confidence 23.80 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 [+]
Consumer Spending 9125.20 9144 9009 9120 8388 9055 AZN Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.41 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 19.9 19.8 19.84 19.79 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00 22 22 22 22 22 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]