Venezuela - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Venezuela including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Venezuela economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30 30 30 8.5 30 20 percent
Inflation Rate 741.00 1000 1000 900 900 600 percent
Interest Rate 21.77 22 22 22.5 20 19 percent
Balance of Trade -782.00 -4000 -4500 -4700 -5000 -4900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.20 35 35 35 35 50 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Stock Market 4505.48
points
1675 1412 1190 1004 256
Currency 24968.75
9.98 9.98 9.98 9.98 9.98
Government Bond 10y 10.43
percent
10.43 10.43 10.43 10.43 10.43
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate -18.60
percent
-6 -6 -6 -6 -2.6
GDP 344.33
USD Billion
400 400 400 400 604
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3219.00
VEF Million
2300 2300 3426 2300 2780
GDP per capita 12793.78
USD
7000 7000 12625 6500 6000
GDP per capita PPP 15602.89
USD
10500 10500 15332 10000 9000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent
30 30 8.5 30 20
Employed Persons 13089081.00
12000000 12000000 13011896 12000000 12400000
Unemployed Persons 1035238.00
1600000 1600000 1153974 1600000 1350000
Minimum Wages 797510.00
VEF/Month
797510 797510 797510 797510 1000000
Population 31.03
Million
31.7 31.7 31.74 30.83 32.63
Employment Rate 92.67
percent
91.72 91.62 91.53 91.43 90.8
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 741.00
percent
1000 1000 900 900 600
Inflation Rate Mom 84.20
percent
70.5 70.5 50 50 45
Consumer Price Index CPI 2146.10
Index Points
5800 6200 6500 6900 8600
Core Consumer Prices 594.30
Index Points
1077 1084 1089 1092 1061
Core Inflation Rate 60.30
percent
280 210 150 120 40
Food Inflation 315.00
percent
420 310 250 150 45
CPI Transportation 1995.10
Index Points
6012 6311 6579 6816 7597
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 21.77
percent
22 22 22.5 20 19
Money Supply M0 64567442.93
VEF Million
143964527 191236545 226549836 250228367 141090974
Money Supply M1 126361633.57
VEF Million
286864913 489626368 715243928 20200000 70800000
Money Supply M2 127049391.20
VEF Million
287514964 489366974 713010919 943356954 2619327275
Money Supply M3 127049391.89
VEF Million
287515275 489368041 713013219 943360884 2619349592
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9338.00
USD Million
9432 9675 9927 9830 12100
Banks Balance Sheet 65920711699.00
VEF Thousand
97777435590 61411398182 69262681799 45640301709 60606340348
Deposit Interest Rate 15.10
percent
16 16 16 16 18
Central Bank Balance Sheet 13534561413.00
VEF Thousand
-92464022662 64213657734 96106041502 -41226506114 5030700293
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -782.00
USD Million
-4000 -4500 -4700 -5000 -4900
Exports 8483.00
USD Million
5458 5000 4660 6700 7500
Imports 9576.00
USD Million
9458 9500 9362 11700 12400
Current Account -5113.00
USD Million
663 828 1028 -2000 -1550
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-3.2 -3.2 2.62 -3.2 -3.5
External Debt 28.00
USD Million
400 400 259 410 421
Remittances 836.00
USD Million
765 771 777 782 531
Gold Reserves 187.57
Tonnes
194 203 212 221 275
Crude Oil Production 1769.00
BBL/D/1K
1916 1908 1968 2101 2000
Terrorism Index 3.63
2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
Foreign Direct Investment 12.00
USD Million
648 659 650 657 655
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.20
percent
35 35 35 35 50
Government Budget -20.00
percent of GDP
-16.86 -18 -19.14 -20.28 -17.1
Government Spending 2747.00
VEF Million
2643 2673 2670 3433 3334
Military Expenditure 2336.30
USD Million
7228 7637 8046 8455 12388
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.81
percent
2.29 2.29 2.29 -0.57 0
Changes in Inventories 1477.00
VEF Million
405 434 830 886 733
Internet Speed 1827.10
KBps
1770 1765 1754 1740 1663
IP Addresses 2571911.00
IP
2526554 2515797 2505425 2495366 2424695
Steel Production 40.00
Thousand Tonnes
43.39 55.73 66.44 76.48 159
Competitiveness Index 3.23
Points
3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Competitiveness Rank 127.00
124 124 124 124 111
Ease of Doing Business 188.00
187 187 187 187 184
Corruption Index 17.00
Points
18 18 18 18 18
Corruption Rank 166.00
158 160 162 164 159
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 58.00
Index Points
49 49 62.19 48 51
Retail Sales Mom -2.22
percent
1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
Retail Sales YoY 12.55
percent
8.8 8.8 8.79 8.79 8.78
Consumer Spending 10233.00
VEF Million
10412 10354 10228 10201 10001
Private Sector Credit 34521409766.00
VEF Thousand
59738104970 78207825287 96392320000 68230477406 37295816944
Gasoline Prices 0.60
USD/Liter
0.58 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.37
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 24.50
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Employees 5.50
percent
5.52 5.52 5.52 5.52 5.97
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 55.96
mm
52.15 218 256 131 168
Temperature 26.52
celsius
25.13 25.34 24.9 24.99 25.65