Venezuela | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

The Venezuelan economy is expected to spiral deeper into recession in 2017 as political crisis is set to continue and extreme uncertainty rules the country. While President Maduro is seeking to redraft the current constitution, a move perceived as a coup, violent protests erupt. Yet, food and medical shortages persist; consumer prices skyrocket amid a slumping currency and forex scarcity and major companies continue to pull out of the country. This page has economic forecasts for Venezuela including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Venezuela economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.80 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.30 25 25 25 30 20 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 741.00 900 900 900 1000 450 percent [+]
Interest Rate 21.46 22.5 22.5 22.5 25 25.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -782.00 -3540 -1133 -2880 -1502 -2160 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.20 25 25 25 25 29 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 9.99 10.09 10.19 10.49 10.39 11.99 [+]
Stock Market 122423.64 107000 106000 103000 104000 86700 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.43 10.53 10.64 10.74 10.85 12.52 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.80 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -18.60 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 percent [+]
GDP 509.97 440 440 440 400 604 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3219.00 2480 2480 2480 2300 2780 VEF Million [+]
GDP per capita 12793.78 10000 10000 7000 7000 6000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15602.89 11000 11000 10800 10500 9000 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30 25 25 25 30 20 percent [+]
Employed Persons 13089081.00 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12400000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1035238.00 1500000 1500000 1500000 1600000 1350000 [+]
Wages 1881.49 2031 2140 2249 2356 5060 VEF/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 104358.00 138848 159108 179048 198673 395153 VEF/Month [+]
Population 31.03 30.83 30.83 30.83 30.83 32.71 Million [+]
Employment Rate 92.67 92.78 92.78 92.78 92.78 92.78 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 741.00 900 900 900 1000 450 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 8.70 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 27 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 2146.10 4587 4947 5550 5400 8600 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 594.30 1116 1144 1171 1198 1432 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 60.30 120 201 200 300 400 percent [+]
Food Inflation 315.00 450 490 600 650 150 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 1995.10 4928 5320 5681 6012 7597 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 21.46 22.5 22.5 22.5 25 25.75 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8319953.31 9928934 12299304 14618939 16888924 38870156 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M1 15006597.93 17960800 22296914 10000000 30731347 70800000 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M2 15172056.88 18134177 22489294 26767473 30964627 70843453 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M3 15172057.57 18134176 22489289 26767466 30964618 70843606 VEF Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 10577.00 7560 10830 12400 10781 12100 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 18787221537.00 22750998083 28580906561 36527746678 39734732943 60606340348 VEF Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 15.10 14.8 14.94 14.5 14.99 12 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 12374460565.95 14030997382 15716849195 17282442277 18656592098 27119762671 VEF Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -782.00 -3540 -1133 -2880 -1502 -2160 USD Million [+]
Exports 8483.00 8938 8818 9230 8864 11200 USD Million [+]
Imports 9576.00 10100 9490 9001 9153 12400 USD Million [+]
Current Account -5113.00 -1170 -3909 -1900 -4036 -1550 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.40 -3 -3 -3 -3.2 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 500.00 361 415 400 400 421 USD Million [+]
Remittances 836.00 818 825 832 832 833 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 187.46 187 188 187 188 187 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2189.00 2218 2260 2200 2253 2000 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.00 2.41 2.49 2.58 2.43 1.35 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12.00 917 916 920 914 915 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.20 25 25 25 25 29 percent [+]
Government Budget -11.50 -9.54 -10.62 -11.7 -11.56 -10.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 2747.00 3110 2751 3109 2752 3104 VEF Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2336.30 6967 7253 7539 8608 9091 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.81 -1.57 -1.57 -1.57 1.57 0 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1477.00 1159 1412 -277 -34.74 268 VEF Million [+]
Steel Production 10.00 23.27 31.7 32.6 32.66 32.67 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.27 3.29 3.29 3.29 3.24 3.22 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 130.00 133 133 133 129 129 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 187.00 187 188 189 189 189 [+]
Corruption Index 17.00 17 17 18 18 17 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 166.00 161 162 164 165 166 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 57.00 50 50 50 49 51 [+]
Retail Sales Mom -2.22 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 12.55 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10233.00 10247 10247 10247 10247 10001 VEF Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 7947332958.00 9999960836 12264417056 14263797019 16338705765 37295816944 VEF Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 percent [+]