Venezuela | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Venezuela including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Venezuela economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.80 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 7.30 25 30 30 8.5 20 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 741.00 900 1000 1000 900 600 percent [+]
Interest Rate 21.46 22 22 22 22.5 19 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -782.00 -2880 -4000 -4500 -4700 -4900 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.20 30 35 35 35 50 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 9.98 9.88 9.78 9.68 9.58 8.48 [+]
Stock Market 612.76 518000 513000 508000 502000 445000 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.43 10.53 10.64 10.74 10.85 11.99 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 6.80 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -18.60 -8 -6 -6 -6 -2.6 percent [+]
GDP 344.33 440 400 400 400 604 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3219.00 2480 2300 2300 3426 2780 VEF Million [+]
GDP per capita 12793.78 7000 7000 7000 12402 6000 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15602.89 10800 10500 10500 14987 9000 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30 25 30 30 8.5 20 percent [+]
Employed Persons 13089081.00 12000000 12000000 12000000 13011896 12400000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1035238.00 1500000 1600000 1600000 1153974 1350000 [+]
Minimum Wages 250532.00 369509 436095 498974 558097 919422 VEF/Month [+]
Population 31.03 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.74 32.63 Million [+]
Employment Rate 92.67 91.83 91.72 91.62 91.53 90.8 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 741.00 900 1000 1000 900 600 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 33.80 70.5 70.5 70.5 50 45 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 2146.10 5500 5800 6200 6500 8600 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 594.30 1171 1198 1223 1247 1432 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 60.30 300 280 210 150 40 percent [+]
Food Inflation 315.00 600 420 310 250 45 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 1995.10 5681 6012 6311 6579 7597 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 21.46 22 22 22 22.5 19 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 18377.16 1949108 -554867 5775752 9597287 5254032 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M1 33225112.42 10000000 68513395 78165242 87993194 70800000 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M2 33504082.07 54558394 69287279 79254807 89444197 105637062 VEF Million [+]
Money Supply M3 33504082.77 54557949 69285899 79252429 89440420 105639666 VEF Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 9929.00 12400 10372 10604 10828 12100 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 38808571665.00 36527746678 97778159336 61411398182 69262681799 60606340348 VEF Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 15.10 15.4 16 16 16 18 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 74485986977.20 78046816298 87291018423 91758799875 92630656200 24220696556 VEF Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -782.00 -2880 -4000 -4500 -4700 -4900 USD Million [+]
Exports 8483.00 6121 5458 5000 4660 7500 USD Million [+]
Imports 9576.00 9001 9458 9500 9362 12400 USD Million [+]
Current Account -5113.00 -1900 663 828 1028 -1550 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.40 -3 -3.2 -3.2 5.06 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 589.00 400 400 400 271 421 USD Million [+]
Remittances 836.00 782 771 759 747 531 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 188.06 213 227 241 255 321 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2100.00 2200 2184 2206 2226 2000 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.00 2.73 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12.00 661 648 659 650 655 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.20 30 35 35 35 50 percent [+]
Government Budget -11.50 -11.7 -11.56 -11.42 -11.28 -10.72 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 2747.00 3485 2643 2673 2670 3334 VEF Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2336.30 8455 9737 11018 12300 12388 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.81 -1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 0 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1477.00 853 405 434 830 733 VEF Million [+]
Steel Production 20.00 44.58 56.95 68.02 78.45 147 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.23 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.23 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 127.00 124 124 124 124 117 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 187.00 187 186 186 186 181 [+]
Corruption Index 17.00 18 18 18 18 18 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 166.00 164 164 164 164 159 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 58.00 50 49 49 62.19 51 [+]
Retail Sales Mom -2.22 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 12.55 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 10233.00 10435 10412 10354 10228 10001 VEF Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 18379222516.00 31183000380 41108978507 50712333235 59779060853 37295816944 VEF Thousand [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.37 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.00 6 6 6 6 6 percent [+]