Thailand Cuts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.6%

Thailand's finance ministry cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 1.6% from 2.0% due to the impact of the war in the Middle East, although government measures are expected to lend some support to activity.

Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the finance ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, told a press briefing that exports, a key driver of Thai growth, are now expected to rise 6.2% this year, higher than January’s forecast of a 1.0% increase, as Reuters reported.

Private investment is projected to rise 3.2%, while government investment is seen increasing 1.7%, and private consumption is expected to grow 2.3% this year.

Meanwhile, headline inflation is forecast to reach 3.0% this year, far above a previous estimate of 0.3%, while remaining within the central bank’s 1–3% target range.

The war has pushed up energy costs, but there is no need to worry about stagflation as inflation remains within target and investment continues to expand, he added.