World Bank Cuts Thai GDP Forecasts to 1.8% in 2025

Thailand’s GDP expanded 2.5% yoy in Q4 2025, accelerating from Q3's four-year low of 1.2% and topping market forecasts of 1%. Private consumption rose the most in a year (3.3% vs 2.5% in Q3), supported by ongoing Bangkok's support measures. At the same time, government spending increased 1.3%, after falling 3.9% previously. Meanwhile, fixed investment picked up sharply (8.1% vs 1.4%). On the trade front, exports slowed (5.6% vs 7.6%) while imports accelerated (9.1% vs 5.9%). By production, non-agriculture quickened (2.7% vs 1.2%), with industrial output rebounding amid growth in mining and manufacturing. Also, services activity quickened, led by construction, wholesale and retail trade, financials, and transport. Meanwhile, the agriculture eased (0.3% vs 2.1%), reflecting a slowdown in agriculture, forestry, and fishing. The economy is expected to grow between 1.5% to 2.5% this year.

Thailand’s Finance Ministry expects the economy to grow by 2.2% in 2025, slower than an earlier estimate of 2.4% and easing from 2.5% in 2024, due to moderating exports and domestic demand, said Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office, at a press conference, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, GDP growth is forecast to remain at 2.0% this year, with exports expected to rise 1.0%, compared with an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline. The central bank has forecast economic growth of 1.5% in 2026. Thailand’s economy has been struggling with US tariffs, an appreciating baht, high household debt, border tensions with Cambodia, and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February. The baht has gained about 1.4% against the dollar so far this year, following a 9% rise in 2025, threatening the competitiveness of the export and tourism sectors.

Thailand’s GDP grew 1.2% yoy in Q3 2025, notably slowing from 2.8% in Q2 and missing market expectations of 1.6%. It was the slowest yearly expansion since Q3 2021, weighed down by sluggish factory output, softer tourism activity, and rising concerns over the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Fixed investment growth eased sharply (1.1% vs 5.8% in Q2), while government spending declined (-3.9% vs 2.2%), and private consumption growth remained steady (at 2.6%).On the external front, both exports (6.9% vs 11.2% in Q2) and imports (4.6% vs 10.9%) grew at a slower pace, though net trade still contributed positively to GDP. The moderation in export growth reflected the drag from newly imposed U.S. levies. Production-wise, output growth slowed in both agriculture (1.9% vs 6.4%) and non-agriculture (1.2% vs 2.5%). For the first three quarters of the year, the economy expanded 2.4%. The government also trimmed its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from a previous range of 1.8%–2.3%.