Latest News Stream - Leading Economic Index

Japan’s leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for economic activity in the coming months using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, slipped to 116.4 in September 2026 from a final 118.0 in the previous month, preliminary data showed. It marked the lowest reading since June, reflecting the lingering effects of recent natural disasters and concerns over persistent price pressures, partly driven by elevated oil prices and supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. These cost pressures persisted despite government efforts to ease the burden on households through a record budget package earlier this year. Meanwhile, consumer confidence was little changed in the month, while the jobless rate edged down, pointing to relatively stable household sentiment and a modest improvement in labor market conditions despite elevated living costs.

Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator rose to 108.1 in October 2026 from 107.2 in September, marking a fourth consecutive month of stronger-than-normal economic sentiment. It also reached its highest level since May 2022, as the manufacturing confidence indicator rose sharply to its highest level in over four years, supported by stronger production plans and improved assessments of order books. The services confidence indicator also increased, continuing its upward trend since March, while the construction confidence indicator remained unchanged. The trade confidence indicator was broadly stable at a level indicating substantially stronger-than-normal sentiment for a fourth straight month. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence indicator fell sharply to its June 2026 level, driven by deteriorating expectations for households’ finances and the Swedish economy over the next 12 months. Firms’ pricing plans also strengthened, indicating price increases to a greater extent than normal.

South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose 0.9% month-on-month in August 2026, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.8% fall in the previous month. It marked the highest reading since March, as six of the ten available component time series increased. The largest positive contributions came from an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and an increase in the number of residential building plans approved. Conversely, the largest negative contributions came from decelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates of job advertisements and new passenger vehicle sales. Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator rose 0.6% in July, supported by increases in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, as well as in industrial production. However, the composite lagging business cycle indicator fell 0.4% in the same month.

Armenia’s economic activity edged down to 5.0% year-on-year in September 2026, from a 5.2% rise in August and remaining the lowest reading since March 2025. The slowdown was driven by a contraction in industrial output, which fell 4.5% year-on-year, compared with a 4.3% increase in August. Meanwhile, growth in construction output accelerated to 25.9% from 23.8%, while trade turnover remained unchanged after rising 0.1% in August. Services growth also accelerated to 15.1% from 11.4%. On a monthly basis, economic activity increased 9.1% in September, following a 4.5% rise in August. For the January–September period, overall economic activity was 6.9% higher than in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Japan’s leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for economic activity in the coming months using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose to 118.0 in August 2026, matching the preliminary estimate and following a final reading of 117.6 in July. It was the highest level since January 2014, supported by the government’s record fiscal budget, which included comprehensive measures to ease cost-of-living pressures and emergency energy support to cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict. Consumer confidence weakened slightly in August, remaining close to a six-month high, amid improved household views of income growth and employment prospects. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up in August from July’s 12-month low, while employment increased by 300,000, pointing to resilient labor market conditions. However, inflation in September was the highest since December 2025, while core inflation exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target for the first time in nine months.

Malaysia's leading economic index increased 0.2% month-on-month in August 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in July. The slowdown reflected declines in real imports of other basic precious and non-ferrous metals (-0.6% vs 0.1% in July), the number of housing units approved (-0.3% vs 0.04%), and real imports of semiconductors (-0.7% vs 0.4%). These declines were partly offset by faster growth in the expected sales value of manufacturing (0.6% vs. 0.1%) and steady growth in real money supply M1 (at 0.1%). On an annual basis, the leading index climbed 2.2%, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.5% in July. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a gauge of current economic conditions, inched down 0.1% month-on-month, matching the pace recorded in July.

Colombia’s leading economic index fell 0.04% year-over-year in August 2026, following a 1.11% increase in July, marking its first annual contraction since June 2024. The decline was driven by weakness in primary and secondary activities, which fell 3.19% and 3.03%, respectively. In contrast, the tertiary activities index rose 1.10%. On a year-to-date basis, the leading economic index increased 2.27%, while it fell 3.11% month-over-month in August.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% month-on-month in September 2026, after remaining flat for the previous two months, marking its first decline since May. Meanwhile, its six-month annualised growth rate held at -0.03%, unchanged from August. The index suggests economic momentum remains slightly below trend heading into late 2026 and early 2027, with growth stabilising at a modest pace rather than stalling. However, higher fuel prices and the RBA’s September rate hike are still filtering through the economy and could weigh on near-term growth. Westpac expects Australia’s economy to expand 1.5% in calendar 2026, below its long-run trend. “For now, it suggests the economy has been stuck in a bit of a holding pattern over the last two years,” said Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s head of Australian macro-forecasting.

Japan’s leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for economic activity in the coming months using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, increased to 118.0 in August 2026 from a marginally revised 117.6 in July, slightly below expectations of 118.1, preliminary estimates showed. It was the highest level since January 2014, supported by the government’s record fiscal budget, which included comprehensive measures to ease cost-of-living pressures and emergency energy support to cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict. However, inflation remained close to the BOJ’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up from July’s 12-month low, while employment increased by 300,000, pointing to resilient labor market conditions. Consumer confidence weakened slightly, remaining close to a six-month high, amid households’ improved views of their income growth and employment prospects.

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index fell 1.0% year-on-year in August 2026, following a 1.5% drop in July, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Goods production declined 4.9%, dragged down by a 17.4% plunge in mining, particularly copper, amid lower ore grades, maintenance work and adverse weather. In contrast, other goods rose 4.9%, supported by higher electricity generation due to greater water availability, while manufacturing edged up 0.3%, as higher output of chemical and fishery products offset a drop in pulp and paper production. Trade activity rose 2.2%, driven by automotive and retail sales, while wholesale trade was flat. Services increased 0.8%, led by personal services, especially health, although restaurant and hotel activity declined. The non-mining IMACEC rose 1.4%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity decreased 0.7%, following a downwardly revised 1.8% fall in July.

Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator increased for a fifth straight month to 107.1 in September 2026 from 105.1 in August, marking its highest reading since May 2022 and indicating stronger-than-normal sentiment in the economy. The Business Sector Indicator rose to 109.3 from 107.5, with confidence strengthening in construction and services, while manufacturing was broadly unchanged at 106.3. Consumer confidence also rose sharply to 102.2 from 98.4, reaching its highest level since December 2021, driven by stronger assessments of households’ finances and the Swedish economy. Trade confidence eased to 112.1 from 113.7 but remained markedly stronger than normal. Meanwhile, firms’ production expectations strengthened, although more manufacturers reported excessive stocks of finished goods. Firms’ pricing plans continued to indicate price increases above normal levels.

Japan’s leading economic index, which gauges the outlook for economic activity in the coming months using indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised lower to 117.7 in July 2026 from a preliminary estimate of 117.9, after reaching 116.2 in June. Still, it was the highest level since January 2014, supported by the government’s record fiscal budget, which included comprehensive measures to ease cost-of-living pressures and emergency energy support to cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict, while inflation remained close to the BOJ’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 2.4% in July, its lowest level since July 2025, pointing to resilient labor market conditions, although employment was at a four-month low. Consumer confidence also improved to a six-month high, amid households’ stronger views of their overall livelihood.

Armenia’s economic activity eased to 5.2% year-on-year in August 2026 from a 6.5% increase in the previous month and marking the lowest reading since March 2025. The slowdown was driven by a contraction in industrial output, which fell 4.3% year-on-year, compared with a 3.1% increase in July. Meanwhile, growth in construction output slowed to 23.8% from 26.5%, while trade turnover rose 0.1% after declining 0.1% in July. Services growth also eased to 11.4% from 17.0%. On a monthly basis, economic activity increased 4.5% in August, following a 4.6% rise in July. For the January–August period, overall economic activity was 7.3% higher than in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Malaysia's leading economic index rose 0.3% month-on-month in July 2026, unchanged from June's upwardly revised figure. The increase in the leading economic index was boosted by a further rise in real imports of other basic precious and non-ferrous metals (0.1% vs 0.9% in June), the number of housing units approved (0.04% vs 0.5%), real imports of semiconductors (0.1% vs 0.2%), a rebound in real money supply M1 (0.1% vs -0.1%), and expected sales value in manufacturing (0.1% vs -0.4%). On an annual basis, the leading index increased 1.1%, easing from an upwardly revised 1.5% in June. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a gauge of current economic conditions, edged down 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a 0.3% gain in June.

South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator fell by 0.9% month-over-month in July 2026, following a revised 1.0% drop in the previous month. Six of the 10 available component time series declined, outweighing increases in the remaining four. The largest negative contributions came from a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a decline in residential building plans approved. The biggest positive contributors were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisements and a widening of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the coincident business cycle indicator edged down by 0.1% in June, mainly due to lower real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, while the lagging indicator rose by 0.2%.

Colombia’s leading economic index rose 1.11% year over year in July 2026, slowing from a 3.51% increase in the previous month. The increase was driven by a 2.59% rise in the tertiary activities index. Meanwhile, the primary activities index declined 3.72%, while the secondary activities index decreased 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the leading economic index rose 0.97%. Year to date, the index increased 2.60%.

Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index fell 0.2% in July 2026 from June, following a 0.6% decline in June and slightly below forecasts for a 0.1% decrease. The decline was driven by a 1.2% contraction in the agriculture and livestock sector, following a 1% increase in the previous month. The industrial sector contracted 0.4%, while the taxes index fell 0.2%, after declining 1% in June. Excluding agriculture and livestock, the IBC-Br fell 0.1%. On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 1.1%.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index was flat month-on-month in August, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, its six-month annualised growth rate improved to -0.09% from -0.17% in July. Momentum remained soft but has strengthened since mid-year, with the index now only marginally below trend heading into late 2026 and early 2027. Q2 GDP growth showed the Australian economy holding up better than expected despite a global energy shock and higher interest rates. Activity appears to be stabilising at a slow pace rather than stalling, supported by resilient households and a strong ramp-up in data-centre investment. Westpac expects the RBA to raise rates again but, on balance, to wait for the next comprehensive quarterly inflation update on October 28. As a result, the September meeting is likely to deliver a “very hawkish hold.”