El Salvador - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for El Salvador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the El Salvador economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.11 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.00 6.72 6.8 6.82 6.85 7 percent
Inflation Rate 1.45 1.6 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 percent
Interest Rate 4.24 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5 percent
Balance of Trade -470.60 -477 -482 -483 -483 -484 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 65.52 66.5 66.5 68 68 67 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 94.12
 93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.11
percent		 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.92
percent		 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.1
GDP 24.81
USD Billion		 25.37 25 26 26 27
GDP Constant Prices 6223.10
USD Million		 6212 6579 6366 6395 6852
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1772.70
USD Million		 1792 1805 1813 1815 1879
GDP per capita 3463.54
USD		 3500 3500 3650 3650 3700
GDP per capita PPP 7292.46
USD		 7300 7300 7400 7400 7600
Gdp From Agriculture 266.40
USD Million		 387 364 273 446 379
Gdp From Construction 324.10
USD Million		 326 338 332 326 352
Gdp From Manufacturing 1067.00
USD Million		 1009 1030 1068 1054 1050
Gdp From Mining 24.30
USD Million		 15.18 15.13 15.13 15.13 15.13
Gdp From Public Administration 383.20
USD Million		 417 498 392 440 518
Gdp From Services 779.00
USD Million		 792 830 810 844 901
Gdp From Transport 250.40
USD Million		 271 273 256 299 285
Gdp From Utilities 124.00
USD Million		 145 143 127 152 148
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.00
percent		 6.72 6.8 6.82 6.85 7
Unemployed Persons 208694.00
 193914 193676 190174 186672 181924
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.90
percent		 61.95 61.87 61.87 61.87 61.87
Population 6.38
Million		 6.4 6.4 6.44 6.44 6.47
Wages High Skilled 752.00
SVC/Month		 790 790 790 807 830
Wages Low Skilled 328.00
SVC/Month		 345 345 345 281 370
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.40
percent		 12.9 12.69 13.15 13.61 14.36
Living Wage Family 485.00
SVC/Month		 485 485 515 485 515
Living Wage Individual 255.00
SVC/Month		 255 255 255 255 255
Employed Persons 275209.00
 271870 269442 270659 271877 273674
Employment Rate 44.98
percent		 44.47 44.29 44.18 44.06 42.97
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.45
percent		 1.6 2 2.2 2.4 2.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 112.71
Index Points		 113 114 114 115 120
Producer Prices 115.61
Index Points		 115 116 116 117 120
Export Prices 113.00
Index Points		 112 112 112 112 112
Import Prices 145.60
Index Points		 146 146 146 146 146
Producer Prices Change 1.78
percent		 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent		 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Food Inflation 1.00
percent		 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 2
Core Consumer Prices 105.91
Index Points		 106 106 106 106 106
Core Inflation Rate 0.22
percent		 0.22 0.27 0.3 0.32 0.35
Cpi Housing Utilities 137.10
Index Points		 135 137 137 139 144
CPI Transportation 111.88
Index Points		 110 112 112 115 117
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.24
percent		 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.5
Money Supply M0 2.60
USD Million		 2.59 2.57 2.56 2.55 2.52
Money Supply M1 3834.30
USD Million		 3809 3806 3812 3805 3806
Money Supply M2 12905.40
USD Million		 13006 13196 13367 13531 14728
Money Supply M3 13946.90
USD Million		 14053 14252 14431 14601 15766
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3655.90
USD Million		 3627 3586 3570 3567 3566
Loans To Private Sector 12578.90
USD Million		 12698 12867 13023 13168 14163
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -470.60
USD Million		 -477 -482 -483 -483 -484
Exports 511.70
USD Million		 507 504 503 502 502
Imports 982.30
USD Million		 984 985 986 986 986
Current Account -124.18
USD Million		 -170 -80 50 -110 -200
Current Account to GDP -2.00
percent		 -3.23 -3.3 -3.25 -3.55 -3.09
Capital Flows -87.80
USD Million		 -400 -250 -100 -70 -190
Remittances 451.49
USD Million		 435 440 471 471 510
Gold Reserves 1.40
Tonnes		 1.39 1.39 1.4 1.4 1.4
Terms Of Trade 77.57
Index Points		 77.11 77.09 77.08 77.08 77.08
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0 0 0 0 0
Foreign Direct Investment 238.80
USD Million		 120 145 124 110 103
External Debt 16022.20
USD Million		 16482 16607 16717 16855 18259
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 65.52
percent		 66.5 66.5 68 68 67
Government Budget -0.80
percent of GDP		 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2
Government Budget Value -16.60
USD Million		 -41.93 -62.63 -46.96 -62.63 -0.63
Government Spending 850.80
USD Million		 860 866 870 871 902
Government Revenues 4781.50
USD Million		 4839 4923 4955 4987 5421
Fiscal Expenditure 4798.00
USD Million		 4881 4954 5002 5050 5422
Military Expenditure 245.00
USD Million		 249 252 251 251 253
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 2.10
percent		 2.4 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.7
Changes in Inventories 0.00
USD Million		 0.2 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.03
Internet Speed 3028.79
KBps		 3018 3025 3022 3023 3022
IP Addresses 185509.00
IP		 202312 204225 205102 204615 204275
Steel Production 10.00
Thousand Tonnes		 9.8 9.71 9.67 9.66 9.65
Leading Economic Index 3.50
percent		 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4
Competitiveness Index 3.77
Points		 3.85 3.85 3.83 3.82 3.88
Competitiveness Rank 109.00
 103 103 111 114 113
Ease of Doing Business 73.00
 79 73 73 73 73
Corruption Index 33.00
Points		 35 35 36 36 39
Corruption Rank 112.00
 105 108 105 102 107
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 9396.50
USD Million		 9500 9566 9613 9622 9962
Private Sector Credit 13424.30
USD Million		 13523 13683 13831 13971 14992
Gasoline Prices 0.91
USD/Liter		 0.93 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.62
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Sales Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Social Security Rate 10.50
percent		 10.5 10.5 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00
percent		 3 3 3 3 3
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 18.74
mm		 306 102 14.07 146 157
Temperature 24.47
celsius		 25.18 23.98 24.75 25.55 25.51