Botswana’s Economy Slips into Recession as Key Sectors Falter

The economy of Botswana contracted by 5.4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, following a 8.2% advance in the previous period, largely due to a steep decline of 47% in the mining sector. Diamond production plunged 54.6%, while coal and soda ash mining also fell 13.3% and 8.2%, respectively, while growth in diamond trading slowed markedly (2.1% vs 88.1%). Botswana has been hit hard by a prolonged slump in the global diamond market, driven by economic uncertainty and the rising popularity of synthetic alternatives. Other sectors that contributed negatively to the GDP included construction (-2.3% vs -1.1%) and water and electricity (-1.3% vs -30.1%). On the other hand, growth picked up for some activities such as manufacturing (6.5% vs 2.5%); agriculture, forestry & fishing (4.2% vs 3.1%); administrative & support (4.4% vs 3.2%) and information & communication (3.7% vs 1.3%). On a quarterly basis, the GDP slipped by 11.4%, the most since Q2 2020, following a 10.9% rise in the previous quarter.

The economy of Botswana advanced by 8.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, rebounding from a revised 5.2% decline in the previous three-month period. This was the first period of expansion after six consecutive quarters of contraction, marking the end of the prolonged recession. Key drivers of growth were diamond traders (88.1% vs -46.2% in Q2) and mining & quarrying (39.5% vs -37.7%), driven by a substantial rise in diamond production (+45%). Other significant positive contributions came from finance, insurance & pension funding (5.2% vs 5.4%); transport and storage (5.2% vs 4%), and accommodation & food services (4.6% vs 4.1%). Meanwhile, declines were seen in utilities (-30.1% vs -6%) and construction (-1.1% vs 0.3%). On a quarterly basis, the GDP expanded by 10.9% in Q3, the most since Q3 2020, following a revised 3.5% contraction in the previous quarter.

The economy of Botswana plunged by 5.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, extending the downturn into a sixth consecutive quarter following a revised 0.4% decline in Q1. This was the steepest economic contraction since Q2 2020, as a prolonged slump in diamond demand pressures the economy. The mining and quarrying sector tumbled 37.8%, mainly due to a 41.3% drop in diamonds and a 2% decline in coal production. Other negative contributors included diamond traders (-46.5% vs -36.2%); water & electricity (-6.6% vs -29%) and manufacturing (-0.5% vs -1%). All other industries recorded solid growth , except construction, with marginal growth of 0.3%. On a quarterly basis, the GDP slumped by 3.6% in Q2, the most since Q2 2020, after a revised 0.2% decline in the prior period.