This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.40 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 5.5 5.1 5 5.2 4.8 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 9.5 9 9 8.5 percent
Balance of Trade 3.00 -340 -220 -230 -55 -300 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 29.60 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 2.12
2.14 2.16 2.17 2.19 2.25
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.90
percent
3 2.7 3.2 2.4 2.2
GDP 54.44
USD Billion
57 60 60 60 65
GDP Constant Prices 19699.00
BYN Million
20969 18887 20329 20172 22009
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4868.90
BYN Million
7344 4301 5025 4986 7708
GDP per capita 6375.82
USD
6430 6570 6570 6570 6600
GDP per capita PPP 17167.97
USD
17250 17900 17900 17900 18500
GDP From Agriculture 807.90
BYN Million
2480 833 834 827 2603
GDP From Construction 1653.70
BYN Million
1691 1225 1707 1693 1774
GDP From Public Administration 995.50
BYN Million
880 1124 1027 1019 923
GDP From Services 14242.90
BYN Million
13604 13486 14699 14585 14278
GDP From Transport 1835.70
BYN Million
1630 1729 1894 1880 1711
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.40
percent
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1
Employed Persons 4330.10
Thousand
4327 4324 4321 4319 4308
Unemployed Persons 15.60
Thousand
13.32 12.97 13.08 13.13 13.13
Wages 963.60
BYN/Month
1050 870 1066 1092 1160
Minimum Wages 305.00
BYN/Month
305 326 310 317 341
Wage Growth 16.90
percent
15.82 15.38 15.07 14.93 14.69
Population 9.49
Million
9.49 9.47 9.47 9.47 9.45
Retirement Age Women 56.00
56 56.5 56 56 57
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61.5 61 61 62
Living Wage Family 515.00
BYN/Month
508 670 508 508 670
Living Wage Individual 265.00
BYN/Month
260 260 260 260 260
Wages High Skilled 589.00
BYN/Month
595 595 602 607 610
Wages Low Skilled 395.00
BYN/Month
397 397 368 368 410
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent
5.5 5.1 5 5.2 4.8
Core Consumer Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices 100.60
Index Points
106 105 105 106 115
Producer Prices Change 7.10
percent
5.8 4.6 4.4 4.5 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.5 0.3 0.44 0.6 0.6
Food Inflation 4.40
percent
4.5 4.9 4.6 4.7 4
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 9.5 9 9 8.5
Money Supply M0 2793.45
BYN Million
2819 2809 2807 2807 2807
Money Supply M1 7241.15
BYN Million
7463 7280 7354 7244 7336
Money Supply M2 14816.36
BYN Million
15167 14979 14913 14892 14898
Money Supply M3 40819.98
BYN Million
41328 42136 42897 43618 48984
Foreign Exchange Reserves 7107.60
USD Million
7089 7114 7112 7111 7111
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 7.5 7 7 6.5
Lending Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11 10.5 10.5 10
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
Banks Balance Sheet 64121444.00
BYN Thousand
63327783 63127368 62998222 62915001 62767086
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 3.00
USD Million
-340 -220 -230 -55 -300
Exports 2882.10
USD Million
2840 3120 3050 2955 4050
Imports 2879.10
USD Million
3180 3340 3280 3010 4350
Current Account 458.50
USD Million
-282 -672 183 210 -117
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-2.7 -4 -4 -4 -2.5
External Debt 39259.20
USD Million
39027 39050 39085 39124 39358
Capital Flows 388.10
USD Million
255 -374 67.38 267 155
Gold Reserves 46.70
Tonnes
47.27 47.57 47.7 47.84 49.36
Remittances 113.90
USD Million
110 110 111 111 111
Foreign Direct Investment -298.40
USD Million
374 797 248 155 370
Crude Oil Production 31.00
BBL/D/1K
31.03 31 31.03 31.01 31.02
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Tourist Arrivals 282694.00
230300 231500 232700 233900 175900
Weapons Sales 23.00
USD Million
134 123 112 101 146
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 29.60
percent
28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5
Government Budget 2.90
percent of GDP
0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6
Government Budget Value -141121.00
BYN Thousand
101713 -18244 121884 52665 276101
Government Spending 2702.30
BYN Million
2770 2769 2789 2767 2908
Government Revenues 2584083.00
BYN Thousand
2724971 2658946 2794101 2724495 2948211
Government Debt 44573823.00
BYN Thousand
45240078 46116073 46739612 47224145 48724307
Fiscal Expenditure 2725204.00
BYN Thousand
2699553 2677189 2672217 2671829 2672110
Government Spending To GDP 28.80
percent of GDP
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Military Expenditure 563.50
USD Million
564 566 568 569 556
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production 6.40
percent
7.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 4.5
Industrial Production Mom 5.20
percent
0 0.16 0.28 0.33 0.37
Manufacturing Production 6.50
percent
6.34 6.2 6.15 6.13 6.12
Changes in Inventories 124.40
BYN Million
-13.7 106 141 993 -50.35
Internet Speed 9757.12
KBps
10823 10835 10976 11021 11393
IP Addresses 1236913.00
IP
1241055 1245125 1246837 1248194 1258334
Leading Economic Index 3.50
percent
3.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6
Ease of Doing Business 37.00
44 40 39 37 48
Corruption Index 44.00
Points
44 44 44 44 44
Corruption Rank 68.00
68 68 68 68 68
Mining Production 3.70
percent
3.3 2.9 3.1 3 3.7
Steel Production 215.00
Thousand Tonnes
203 203 203 203 203
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Spending 11354.20
BYN Million
11053 10704 11718 11627 11601
Consumer Credit 4019.70
BYN Million
4401 4740 5040 5304 6638
Retail Sales Mom 5.20
percent
1.1 1.22 1.1 1.12 1.11
Retail Sales Yoy 8.70
percent
7.76 7.56 7.48 7.46 7.44
Gasoline Prices 0.69
USD/Liter
0.68 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.6
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 1.70
celsius
0.65 -4.66 10.15 7.93 5.98
Precipitation 41.48
mm
45.39 34.96 52.65 52.65 53.26



Belarus - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook