Belarus | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1 1 1 1.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.90 5 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 11.00 10 9.5 9 8.5 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -410.40 -331 -312 -302 -295 -285 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 31.70 28.6 28 28 28 27.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 2.02 1.92 1.9 1.88 1.86 1.65 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 47.43 67.85 36.9 34.2 31.5 76.47 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18927.00 19400 17842 18897 20347 19631 BYN Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4504.70 5946 4144 4711 4582 5608 BYN Billion [+]
GDP per capita 6218.74 6210 6430 6430 6430 6600 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16742.26 16777 16644 16625 16606 18542 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6585.00 28621 9517 5993 9539 18091 BYN Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 13285.00 15259 12709 13304 13038 13300 BYN Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 9050.00 8856 8379 8663 8361 8109 BYN Billion [+]
Gdp From Services 124384.00 123848 115235 121881 114286 110822 BYN Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 14555.00 14443 14403 14288 14184 13197 BYN Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1 1 1 1.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4356.40 4358 4360 4362 4364 4375 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 26.30 23.16 21.89 22.1 22.96 32.95 Thousand [+]
Wages 841.00 838 840 839 839 832 BYN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 13.43 15.98 18.26 20.2 21.82 28.03 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 265.00 265 282 282 282 325 BYR/Month [+]
Population 9.50 9.52 9.54 9.54 9.55 9.64 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 55 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 650.00 650 650 650 650 650 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 465.00 465 465 465 465 465 BYR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 581.00 559 561 562 563 547 BYR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 386.00 371 371 371 371 367 BYR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90 5 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.8 percent [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.40 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.70 101 100 100 102 100 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 10.10 9.2 8.5 7.9 6.2 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 1.29 2.64 3.59 4.27 5.94 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.40 4.06 4.82 6.62 8.45 11 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 11.00 10 9.5 9 8.5 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 2223.32 2317 2338 2344 2343 2294 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 6017.33 6264 6238 6223 6212 6121 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12178.89 12718 12746 12740 12719 12454 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 36922.91 37365 37394 37369 37335 37008 BYN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 7413.70 7408 7274 7099 6924 5724 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00 8.53 9.51 10.46 11.32 15.78 percent [+]
Lending Rate 13.00 13.76 15.28 16.79 18.22 27.89 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4.24 4.48 4.7 4.92 6.44 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -410.40 -331 -312 -302 -295 -285 USD Million [+]
Exports 2521.20 2493 2464 2425 2388 2152 USD Million [+]
Imports 2931.60 2782 2778 2760 2741 2595 USD Million [+]
Current Account 227.20 -443 -659 -498 -434 -733 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -3.4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -2.7 percent [+]
External Debt 38975.40 40220 40644 40912 41075 40273 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 405.10 114 -591 -524 -616 -720 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 43.21 43.47 42.8 42.67 42.66 41.53 Tonnes [+]
Remittances 143.40 140 133 136 131 121 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 51.00 291 488 197 274 304 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 32.00 30.86 30.87 30.98 31.06 31.76 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 0.04 0.66 0.58 0.5 0.42 0.71 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 217398.00 261600 248800 236000 223200 163500 [+]
Weapons Sales 81.00 50.32 67.63 84.95 102 120 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 31.70 28.6 28 28 28 27.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.50 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 887867.00 -110951 -77605 -45323 -18664 42166 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Spending 2753.00 2770 2775 2764 2751 2765 BYN Billion [+]
Government Revenues 3255190.00 2337900 2444499 2521626 2576195 2657121 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Debt 41857646.00 42083501 42099292 41988451 41856178 40653452 BYN Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2367323.00 2240048 2227188 2224450 2214835 2100054 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Spending To GDP 28.80 30.06 30.31 30.57 30.82 33.12 percent of GDP [+]
Military Expenditure 663.50 625 621 618 614 558 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 6.30 5.83 5.15 4.51 3.98 2.14 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.40 -0.16 0.11 0.39 0.48 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.60 6.29 5.98 5.7 5.45 4.3 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -110.80 264 116 -176 595 361 BYN Billion [+]
Internet Speed 9757.12 9734 9572 9444 9188 5612 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 1236913.00 1234189 1224443 1214063 1201448 1065211 IP [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.00 2.19 2.3 2.31 2.3 2.22 percent [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 41 41 42 42 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 68 65 63 61 59 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 38.00 49 49 49 49 57 [+]
Mining Production 3.20 3.79 4.13 4.25 4.26 4.21 percent [+]
Steel Production 235.00 218 217 213 210 188 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Spending 10259.80 10174 10173 10172 10172 10172 BYN Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 2715.60 2976 3292 3519 3662 2744 BYN Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom -6.00 0.62 1.42 1.07 1.08 1.08 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 5.90 7.04 7.41 7.56 7.64 7.86 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.65 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 19 19 19 19 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 15 15 15 15 17 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 1.00 2.4 5.55 10.92 7.92 4.73 celsius [+]
Precipitation 41.00 51.76 51.76 51.76 51.76 51.76 mm [+]