Belarus - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50 1 1 1 0.5 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.10 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 10 10 9 10 percent
Balance of Trade -255.30 -310 -620 40 60 -560 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 30.30 28 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.97
2.03 2.07 2.11 2.16 2.34
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.10
percent
3.2 3 2.3 5.9 2.2
GDP 54.44
USD Billion
70 70 73 73 76
GDP Constant Prices 18390.40
BYN Million
21241 20969 18813 19475 21966
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4188.00
BYN Million
5208 7344 4284 4435 7693
GDP per capita 6375.82
USD
6430 6430 6570 6570 6600
GDP per capita PPP 17167.97
USD
17250 17250 17900 17900 18500
GDP From Agriculture 762.10
BYN Million
4532 2480 780 807 2598
GDP From Construction 1189.60
BYN Million
1559 1691 1217 1260 1771
GDP From Public Administration 847.30
BYN Million
904 880 867 897 921
Gdp From Services 12264.30
BYN Million
12863 13604 12546 12988 14251
GDP From Transport 1572.60
BYN Million
1610 1630 1609 1665 1707
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50
percent
1 1 1 0.5 1.1
Employed Persons 4328.40
Thousand
4322 4316 4312 4308 4286
Unemployed Persons 20.80
Thousand
15.58 15.29 15.49 15.56 15.56
Wages 943.90
BYN/Month
880 1050 870 1057 1160
Minimum Wages 305.00
BYN/Month
305 305 326 310 341
Wage Growth 18.70
percent
18.46 18.36 18.31 18.25 18.16
Population 9.49
Million
9.49 9.49 9.47 9.47 9.45
Retirement Age Women 56.00
56 56 56.5 56 57
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61 61.5 61 62
Living Wage Family 650.00
BYN/Month
650 650 670 650 670
Living Wage Individual 465.00
BYN/Month
465 465 465 465 465
Wages High Skilled 581.00
BYN/Month
595 595 595 558 610
Wages Low Skilled 386.00
BYN/Month
397 397 397 390 410
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.10
percent
4.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 3.8
Core Consumer Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices 100.70
Index Points
107 106 105 105 115
Producer Prices Change 6.90
percent
6.2 5.8 4.4 4.42 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent
0.16 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.26
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
4 4.5 1.49 4.45 3.98
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 9 10
Money Supply M0 2523.32
BYN Million
2632 2639 2639 2638 2638
Money Supply M1 6779.47
BYN Million
6824 6924 6828 6924 6921
Money Supply M2 14042.16
BYN Million
14182 14185 14184 14184 14191
Money Supply M3 38871.20
BYN Million
39670 40185 40635 41052 43830
Foreign Exchange Reserves 6831.40
USD Million
6824 6817 6815 6816 6816
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 7 8
Lending Rate 11.50
percent
11.5 11.5 11.5 10.5 11.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
Banks Balance Sheet 64104794.00
BYN Thousand
62980983 62761439 62640617 62574125 62492954
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -255.30
USD Million
-310 -620 40 60 -560
Exports 2860.50
USD Million
2810 3120 3240 3340 4050
Imports 3115.80
USD Million
3120 3740 3200 3280 4610
Current Account -1294.70
USD Million
-435 -732 -1037 -716 -742
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-3.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7
External Debt 39742.00
USD Million
39802 39906 40014 40125 40991
Capital Flows -1086.50
USD Million
-193 -326 -689 -591 -474
Gold Reserves 46.50
Tonnes
47.3 47.75 47.92 48.03 50.09
Remittances 119.10
USD Million
119 122 121 122 122
Foreign Direct Investment 1410.90
USD Million
236 424 874 580 482
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K
32 32.02 32 32.01 32.01
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.15 0 0 0 0.97
Tourist Arrivals 282694.00
243125 230300 231500 232700 175900
Weapons Sales 23.00
USD Million
115 134 123 112 146
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 30.30
percent
28 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.5
Government Budget 2.90
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 1.4 1.44 1.6
Government Budget Value 328216.00
BYN Thousand
334026 565893 420909 574155 711968
Government Spending 2696.20
BYN Million
2824 2770 2758 2855 2902
Government Revenues 2788294.00
BYN Thousand
2813090 2977475 2894424 3048528 3186405
Government Debt 42465010.00
BYN Thousand
42454055 42417418 42413381 42415850 42415643
Fiscal Expenditure 2460078.00
BYN Thousand
2479063 2473026 2473516 2474374 2474437
Government Spending To GDP 28.80
percent of GDP
32.69 33.4 34.29 35.19 42.55
Military Expenditure 563.50
USD Million
570 564 566 568 556
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 8.30
percent
8.19 8.11 8.08 8.06 8.05
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
1.23 0.83 0.59 0.58 0.59
Manufacturing Production 9.50
percent
9.59 9.57 9.56 9.55 9.55
Changes in Inventories 51.80
BYN Million
227 237 235 236 236
Internet Speed 9757.12
KBps
10628 10823 10835 10976 11393
IP Addresses 1236913.00
IP
1238583 1241055 1245125 1246837 1258334
Leading Economic Index 4.70
percent
4.64 4.63 4.62 4.62 4.62
Ease of Doing Business 38.00
46 48 47 46 61
Corruption Index 44.00
Points
45 46 46 46 41
Corruption Rank 68.00
63 65 64 64 70
Mining Production 3.10
percent
3.7 4.01 4.14 4.17 4.14
Steel Production 115.00
Thousand Tonnes
173 180 180 179 179
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 10423.00
BYN Million
11338 11053 10663 11038 11578
Consumer Credit 3542.50
BYN Million
3998 4286 4530 4736 5652
Retail Sales Mom 6.00
percent
0.26 -0.47 -0.26 -0.28 -0.28
Retail Sales Yoy 11.00
percent
11.31 11.45 11.51 11.53 11.55
Gasoline Prices 0.68
USD/Liter
0.64 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.32
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 1.70
celsius
15.73 0.65 -4.66 10.15 5.98
Precipitation 41.48
mm
70.61 45.39 34.96 52.65 53.26