Belarus - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50 1 1 1 1 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 5.00 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 10.50 10 10 10 10 10 percent
Balance of Trade -238.90 60 -310 -620 40 -560 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 31.70 28 28 28.2 27.8 27.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 2.00
2 2.03 2.07 2.1 2.26
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30
percent
3.4 3.2 3 2.3 2.2
GDP 47.43
USD Billion
47.9 45.55 70.25 73.65 76.47
GDP Constant Prices 20358.50
BYN Million
19571 21241 20969 20827 21966
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7130.10
BYN Million
4658 5208 7344 7294 7693
GDP per capita 6218.74
USD
6430 6430 6430 6570 6600
GDP per capita PPP 16742.26
USD
16904 16784 17107 17909 18542
GDP From Agriculture 2407.90
BYN Million
721 4532 2480 2463 2598
GDP From Construction 1641.40
BYN Million
1447 1559 1691 1679 1771
GDP From Public Administration 854.00
BYN Million
897 904 880 874 921
Gdp From Services 13207.50
BYN Million
12878 12863 13604 13511 14251
GDP From Transport 1582.50
BYN Million
1585 1610 1630 1619 1707
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50
percent
1 1 1 1 1.1
Employed Persons 4346.60
Thousand
4338 4335 4332 4329 4316
Unemployed Persons 23.40
Thousand
26.91 27.21 27.11 27.06 27.06
Wages 926.80
BYN/Month
870 880 1050 870 1160
Minimum Wages 305.00
BYN/Month
305 305 305 326 341
Wage Growth 18.69
percent
26.56 17.43 12.59 11.74 20.17
Population 9.51
Million
9.54 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Retirement Age Women 56.00
56 56 56 56.5 57
Retirement Age Men 61.00
61 61 61 61.5 62
Living Wage Family 650.00
BYN/Month
650 650 650 670 670
Living Wage Individual 465.00
BYN/Month
465 465 465 465 465
Wages High Skilled 581.00
BYN/Month
595 595 595 610 610
Wages Low Skilled 386.00
BYN/Month
397 397 397 397 410
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.00
percent
4.6 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.8
Core Consumer Prices 100.20
Index Points
100 100 100 100 100
Producer Prices 100.80
Index Points
108 107 106 105 114
Producer Prices Change 7.00
percent
7.9 6.2 5.8 4.4 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
1.1 1.24 1.32 1.38 1.47
Food Inflation 4.20
percent
4.2 4 4.5 4.71 3.98
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.50
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Money Supply M0 2502.10
BYN Million
2147 1952 1780 1685 1792
Money Supply M1 6683.94
BYN Million
6593 6521 6491 6475 6362
Money Supply M2 13596.18
BYN Million
13796 13080 12486 12157 12240
Money Supply M3 38379.67
BYN Million
37854 36087 35510 36167 36681
Foreign Exchange Reserves 7038.10
USD Million
6936 6787 6634 6487 5330
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
Lending Rate 11.75
percent
11 11 11 11 11
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -238.90
USD Million
60 -310 -620 40 -560
Exports 2811.00
USD Million
2950 2810 3120 3240 4050
Imports 3049.90
USD Million
2890 3120 3740 3200 4610
Current Account -637.20
USD Million
-538 -458 -615 -729 -781
Current Account to GDP -1.70
percent
-3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.7
External Debt 39932.70
USD Million
39489 39488 39488 39488 39488
Capital Flows -492.10
USD Million
-616 -282 -376 -790 -563
Gold Reserves 46.50
Tonnes
46.16 47.04 47.56 47.74 49.68
Remittances 130.20
USD Million
125 120 121 118 106
Foreign Direct Investment 293.00
USD Million
155 152 152 152 152
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K
32 32 32 32 32
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.27 0.13 0 0 1.11
Tourist Arrivals 282694.00
255950 243125 230300 231500 175900
Weapons Sales 23.00
USD Million
23 23 23 23 23
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 31.70
percent
28 28 28.2 27.8 27.5
Government Budget 2.90
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 0.8 2.9 1.6
Government Budget Value 88927.00
BYN Thousand
438819 309062 397977 293517 382775
Government Spending 2689.60
BYN Million
2847 2824 2770 2751 2902
Government Revenues 2693577.00
BYN Thousand
2956185 2838495 2934626 2826576 2917459
Government Debt 41334494.00
BYN Thousand
41490733 41653835 41553463 41620270 41593553
Fiscal Expenditure 2604650.00
BYN Thousand
2517366 2529434 2525019 2533058 2534684
Government Spending To GDP 28.80
percent of GDP
31.97 32.69 33.4 34.29 42.55
Military Expenditure 563.50
USD Million
665 645 625 621 539
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 8.80
percent
6.96 6.55 6.94 7.02 6.94
Industrial Production Mom 7.00
percent
1.84 -0.35 0.52 2.71 0.98
Manufacturing Production 10.20
percent
13.31 12.5 11.73 11.04 7.13
Changes in Inventories 18.90
BYN Million
226 240 237 238 238
Internet Speed 9757.12
KBps
9444 9188 8905 8587 3892
IP Addresses 1236913.00
IP
1214063 1201448 1186914 1171834 1014950
Leading Economic Index 4.80
percent
5.84 4.33 2.74 1.95 2.96
Ease of Doing Business 38.00
49 49 49 51 59
Corruption Index 44.00
Points
44 45 46 45 38
Corruption Rank 68.00
63 61 59 59 65
Mining Production 2.80
percent
2.87 3.01 2.84 2.86 2.85
Steel Production 230.00
Thousand Tonnes
212 209 206 203 180
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Spending 10731.00
BYN Million
10609 11338 11053 10978 11578
Consumer Credit 3268.20
BYN Million
3610 3852 4039 4188 4737
Retail Sales Mom -14.30
percent
-0.15 0.78 1.14 1.06 1.05
Retail Sales Yoy 9.50
percent
8.34 5.94 3.48 1.92 3.74
Gasoline Prices 0.68
USD/Liter
0.62 0.59 0.55 0.52 0.36
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 19
Social Security Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 1.70
celsius
11.7 15.73 0.65 -4.66 5.98
Precipitation 41.48
mm
57.52 70.61 45.39 34.96 53.26