Belarus | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.10 6 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 12.00 12 12 12 11 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -337.80 -281 -192 -290 -192 -290 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.60 28.6 28.6 28.6 28 27.5 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.93 1.9 1.92 1.97 1.96 2.26 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 0.5 0.7 1 1.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 54.61 64.66 60.49 67.85 54.64 76.47 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 19489.80 18875 18852 18856 18855 18855 BYN Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 6079.20 4714 4713 4713 4713 4713 BYN Billion [+]
GDP per capita 6174.20 6022 6106 6211 5952 6603 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16662.00 16531 16477 16777 16061 18542 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 5107.90 11746 11746 11746 11746 11746 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 14731.50 14620 11442 14567 11494 14284 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 48167.70 47682 48590 49366 47297 48328 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1485.50 1370 1268 1270 1310 1295 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 8529.50 8510 7976 8500 7985 8450 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 13776.60 14865 14865 14865 14865 14865 BYR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 9839.20 11191 11360 11721 12261 16046 BYR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.90 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4366.70 4361 4354 4348 4342 4311 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 41.60 37.31 34.25 34.06 34.27 34.32 Thousand [+]
Wages 795.20 790 810 826 842 982 BYN/Month [+]
Wage Growth 9.61 9.71 10.44 10.64 10.76 11.03 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 265.00 252 252 2530000 292 3310000 BYR/Month [+]
Population 9.50 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.54 9.59 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 55 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4500000.00 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 4500000 BYR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 3000000.00 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 3100000 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 3973648.00 3967043 3966930 3966914 3966912 3966912 BYR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2690489.00 2614703 2577828 2541616 2506055 2154642 BYR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.10 6 5.7 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.20 100 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.50 101 101 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.00 8.63 9.41 9.46 9.43 9.43 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 9.90 6.5 5.9 5.4 5 3.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.37 0.54 0.57 0.57 0.57 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 12.00 12 12 12 11 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1959.76 1991 2021 2009 2003 2003 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 5341.41 5357 5362 5417 5372 5416 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M2 11258.90 11372 11427 11410 11401 11402 BYN Million [+]
Money Supply M3 34452.20 34272 34558 34827 35179 37223 BYN Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5238.90 5238 5289 5277 5288 5283 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.00 8.94 9.34 9.65 9.66 9.59 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -337.80 -281 -192 -290 -192 -290 USD Million [+]
Exports 2170.20 2240 2234 2234 2234 2234 USD Million [+]
Imports 2508.00 2366 2394 2398 2397 2397 USD Million [+]
Current Account -867.90 -211 -66.39 -454 -606 -376 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.60 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.2 -2.7 percent [+]
External Debt 37111.00 37015 36674 36637 36375 35994 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -1053.10 -469 -375 120 -473 -325 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 40.73 40.18 41.61 43.1 41.83 40.86 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 1.36 0.98 0.85 0.72 0.64 0.56 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 276260.00 180675 200107 219540 227876 155595 [+]
Weapons Sales 81.00 98.21 76.33 54.45 70.43 118 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 204.60 262 61.77 266 352 241 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 24.00 24.08 24.1 24.07 24.1 24.09 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 124.20 123 120 121 120 120 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.60 28.6 28.6 28.6 28 27.5 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.80 0.35 0.43 0.5 0.52 0.65 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 898731.00 -144242 6425 67947 101079 117806 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Spending 2762.20 2766 2767 2767 2768 2768 BYN Billion [+]
Government Revenues 3121883.00 2308557 2351907 2381326 2401677 2445210 BYN Thousand [+]
Government Debt 35880484.00 36122713 36004975 36065813 36109154 36302443 BYN Thousand [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2223152.00 2197368 2226110 2202751 2212843 2215130 BYN Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 663.50 695 677 658 666 690 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To GDP 28.80 31.97 32.69 33.4 34.29 42.76 percent of GDP [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 6.00 6.12 6.76 7 7.11 7.18 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 3.22 1.65 0.76 0.6 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.50 6.57 6.94 7.08 7.13 7.17 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 156.20 276 279 279 279 279 BYN Billion [+]
Steel Production 210.00 202 197 196 196 196 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 40 43 43 41 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 83 69 56 54 47 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 37.00 43 45 46 48 72 [+]
Mining Production 3.00 3.36 4.05 4.36 4.45 4.39 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.90 1 1.16 1.19 1.19 1.19 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 9541.90 9842 9986 9915 9950 9938 BYN Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 1875.90 1959 2019 2032 2031 2028 BYN Million [+]
Retail Sales Mom 3.50 -8.85 -0.71 1.23 0.18 0.35 percent [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 2.90 3.89 4.87 5.26 5.43 5.54 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.69 0.7 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.83 USD/Liter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 12.5 12.75 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00 34 34 34 34 34 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 percent [+]