Belarus - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Belarus including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Belarus economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50 1 1 1 1 1.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.50 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 10.50 11 11 10 10 10 percent
Balance of Trade -586.50 -410 -367 -336 -317 -288 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 31.80 28 28 28 28.2 27.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.96
2.03 2.07 2.11 2.15 2.31
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
3.2 3.4 3.2 3 2.2
GDP 47.43
USD Billion
48.15 45.3 42.45 70.25 76.47
GDP Constant Prices 20582.80
BYN Million
17788 18930 20564 19576 19772
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5046.80
BYN Million
4173 4688 5017 5917 5686
GDP per capita 6218.74
USD
6430 6430 6430 6430 6600
GDP per capita PPP 16742.26
USD
17024 16904 16784 17107 18542
GDP From Agriculture 4398.50
BYN Million
647 777 4228 1947 1948
GDP From Construction 1551.10
BYN Million
1307 1353 1385 1455 1280
GDP From Public Administration 778.70
BYN Million
776 805 774 789 727
Gdp From Services 12306.30
BYN Million
12785 13232 12842 13100 11879
GDP From Transport 1557.40
BYN Million
1566 1558 1548 1537 1402
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 0.50
percent
1 1 1 1 1.1
Employed Persons 4347.20
Thousand
4348 4349 4351 4352 4368
Unemployed Persons 23.50
Thousand
21.89 22.02 22.83 23.92 36.37
Wages 995.30
BYN/Month
994 988 985 984 973
Wage Growth 16.62
percent
19.83 21.67 23.11 24.27 28.99
Minimum Wages 305.00
BYN/Month
305 305 305 305 341
Population 9.51
Million
9.54 9.54 9.52 9.52 9.6
Retirement Age Women 55.00
55 55 55 55 55
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Living Wage Family 650.00
BYN/Month
650 650 650 650 650
Living Wage Individual 465.00
BYN/Month
465 465 465 465 465
Wages High Skilled 581.00
BYN/Month
595 595 595 595 620
Wages Low Skilled 386.00
BYN/Month
397 397 397 397 410
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.50
percent
4.8 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8
Core Consumer Prices 100.80
Index Points
101 101 101 101 101
Producer Prices 100.50
Index Points
100 100 101 100 100
Producer Prices Change 11.20
percent
9.8 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
0.86 1.11 1.23 1.31 1.45
Food Inflation 3.80
percent
4.07 5.63 7.48 9.03 10.78
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 10.50
percent
11 11 10 10 10
Money Supply M0 2213.96
BYN Million
2260 2238 2231 2226 2156
Money Supply M1 6207.15
BYN Million
6820 6637 6568 6540 6414
Money Supply M2 12795.81
BYN Million
13872 13712 13592 13503 13044
Money Supply M3 38745.13
BYN Million
38973 38825 38772 38731 38264
Foreign Exchange Reserves 6477.40
USD Million
6149 5866 5718 5601 4722
Deposit Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 6 6 2
Lending Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 10 10 6
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4.22 4.45 4.66 4.86 6.69
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -586.50
USD Million
-410 -367 -336 -317 -288
Exports 2775.90
USD Million
2753 2699 2645 2594 2200
Imports 3362.40
USD Million
3137 3106 3082 3055 2785
Current Account 92.60
USD Million
-658 -496 -431 -549 -761
Current Account to GDP -3.60
percent
-3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -2.7
External Debt 39557.00
USD Million
40459 40696 40837 40899 39177
Capital Flows 365.90
USD Million
-425 -505 -537 -370 -700
Gold Reserves 46.49
Tonnes
45.02 44.56 44.83 44.93 43.8
Remittances 127.50
USD Million
127 132 126 128 113
Foreign Direct Investment 114.70
USD Million
484 187 225 304 299
Crude Oil Production 32.00
BBL/D/1K
32.23 32.33 32.43 32.53 33.2
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.4 0.27 0.13 0 1.11
Tourist Arrivals 217398.00
229125 239950 250775 261600 163500
Weapons Sales 81.00
USD Million
116 94.08 72.2 50.32 134
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 31.80
percent
28 28 28 28.2 27.5
Government Budget 2.90
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6
Government Budget Value -389151.00
BYN Thousand
-263375 -170062 -103640 -57461 38762
Government Spending 2736.40
BYN Million
2773 2768 2776 2761 2762
Government Revenues 3035138.00
BYN Thousand
2956849 2908114 2876285 2854557 2749073
Government Debt 42172493.00
BYN Thousand
42141509 42020664 41887853 41753680 40184530
Fiscal Expenditure 3424289.00
BYN Thousand
2877366 2765178 2734221 2720294 2547669
Government Spending To GDP 28.80
percent of GDP
29.02 29.37 29.71 30.06 33.56
Military Expenditure 663.50
USD Million
684 665 645 625 539
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 9.70
percent
8.98 8.34 7.34 6.45 2.79
Industrial Production Mom 1.20
percent
1.12 0.7 0.69 0.63 0.61
Manufacturing Production 13.50
percent
13.12 12.65 11.86 11.14 6.84
Changes in Inventories 1050.00
BYN Million
47.3 -239 890 311 431
Internet Speed 9757.12
KBps
9572 9444 9188 8905 5612
IP Addresses 1236913.00
IP
1224443 1214063 1201448 1186914 1014950
Leading Economic Index 4.60
percent
5.5 5.77 5.46 5.03 2.94
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
36 37 39 41 35
Corruption Rank 79.00
91 83 75 68 59
Ease of Doing Business 38.00
49 49 49 49 59
Mining Production 0.00
percent
0.36 1.72 3.18 3.92 3.95
Steel Production 230.00
Thousand Tonnes
225 221 217 214 185
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 10986.70
BYN Million
9522 10314 10868 10166 10266
Consumer Credit 2858.60
BYN Million
2914 2882 2789 2654 1512
Retail Sales Mom -3.90
percent
1.21 0.89 1.08 1.04 1.04
Retail Sales Yoy 8.30
percent
8.15 8.19 8.17 8.13 7.99
Gasoline Prices 0.67
USD/Liter
0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.67
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 18.00
percent
19 19 19 19 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent
15 15 15 15 17
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 19
Social Security Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.00
percent
1 1 1 1 1
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 1.70
celsius
-4.65 11.7 15.73 0.65 5.98
Precipitation 41.48
mm
34.89 57.52 70.61 45.39 53.26