Latest News Stream - Economic Optimism Index

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell for a second consecutive month to 96.9 in October 2026, missing market expectations of 97.5. Consumer confidence deteriorated to -17.9, its lowest level since May, as households became more pessimistic about their past and future financial situations. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained elevated at 33.9, easing slightly from 34.7 in September. Sentiment also weakened among retailers (-8.0 vs. -6.5), construction firms (-5.9 vs. -5.3), and service providers (5.3 vs. 5.9). In contrast, confidence among manufacturers improved to -3.4 from -3.9. Among major economies, sentiment declined sharply in the Netherlands (-3.4 points), while Germany (-0.7) and Spain (-0.5) recorded more moderate decreases. Italy saw a modest improvement (+0.8), while France remained broadly stable (+0.1).

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 97.9 in September 2026 from 98.4 in August, below market expectations of 99.0. It marked the first decline in sentiment since April, as consumers became more concerned about rising oil prices and stalled negotiations to end the six-month US-Iran war. Consumer confidence deteriorated to -16.5 from -15.5, while inflation expectations rose to 35.2 from 33.0. Sentiment was broadly unchanged among retailers (-6.4 vs -6.3) and constructors (-5.0 vs -5.0), while manufacturers’ confidence improved to -3.8 from -5.0 despite higher selling-price expectations (20.3 vs 16.9). Service-sector sentiment also strengthened to 6.1 from 5.6. Among the major economies, sentiment fell sharply in France (-1.7) and moderately in Italy (-0.8), while it rose in Spain (+3.4), Germany (+0.6) and the Netherlands (+0.5).

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose for a fourth consecutive month to 98.4 in August 2026, up from a revised 97.1 in July and above market expectations of 97.5. It was the highest reading since January, as businesses and consumers remained hopeful of a resolution to the six-month-long US-Iran war. Confidence improved across all sectors, with sentiment strengthening among manufacturers (-5.3 vs. -6.1), service providers (5.8 vs. 5.1), consumers (-15.5 vs. -15.9), retailers (-5.7 vs. -6.8) and constructors (-5.0 vs. -5.2). Inflation expectations were mixed: consumer expectations rose to 33.0 from 30.4, while manufacturers’ selling-price expectations eased to 16.4 from 17.8. Among the major economies, sentiment improved in France (+2.3), Germany (+1.3) and Italy (+0.8), was broadly stable in the Netherlands (-0.1), and declined in Spain (-2.2).

The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 45.5 in July 2026 from 42.5 in May, beating market expectations of 45. The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy’s prospects in the next six months, increased to 42.1 from 37.1. Also, the Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, rose to 52.2 from 50.1, remaining the only component anchored at the 50 line. Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, rose to 42.1 from 40.2

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose for a second consecutive month to 95.0 in June 2026, moving further from April’s five-year low and surpassing market expectations of 94.3, as businesses and consumers continued to evaluate the economic impact of the Iran war amid ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations. Sectoral confidence showed mixed trends: service providers (3.2 vs. 2.6 in May), retailers (-9.7 vs. -10.9), consumers (-17.7 vs. -19.0), and manufacturers (-7.7 vs. -7.9) saw slight improvements, while confidence among constructors worsened (-4.5 vs. -3.9). On inflation, consumer expectations fell to 34.0 from 40.4, and manufacturers’ selling price expectations eased to 22.3 from 26.7. Among major Eurozone economies, the ESI increased significantly in the Netherlands (+4.1), Germany (+1.7), and Italy (+1.3), while Spain saw a modest rise (+0.7). France’s ESI remained broadly stable (-0.2).

Brazil's seasonally adjusted FGV-IBRE Consumer Confidence Index retreated 0.1 points to 88.7 in June 2026 from 88.8 in May. Sentiment remained relatively stable, although reflecting contrasting variations. Expectations for the future worsened, with the index falling 0.9 points to 90.4, while the perception of the current situation improved, advancing 0.9 points to 87, marking the third consecutive increase and the highest level since October 2014. Purchase intentions of durable goods (80 vs 83) and future financial situation (87.7 vs 89.4) suggest a more pessimistic sentiment, although the current financial situation confidence improved (79 vs 81.3). In contrast, future local economic expectations increased by 2.4 points to 105.3, while current perceptions fell by 0.4 points to 95.4. Across income groups, consumer confidence improved among lower-income households, while sentiment deteriorated among consumers earning R$4,800 or more.

The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index edged down to 42.5 in June 2026 from 42.6 in May, falling short of expectations for a rise to 44.5 and marking a third consecutive month near April’s lows. The reading suggests consumer sentiment remains stuck at subdued levels rather than showing signs of recovery. The index has now remained below the neutral 50 threshold for ten straight months, indicating persistent pessimism among Americans. The Six-Month Economic Outlook component fell 1.9% to 37.1, its weakest level since June 2024, reflecting growing concerns about the economy’s near-term prospects. Meanwhile, the Personal Financial Outlook slipped marginally to 50.1 from 50.3, remaining the only component close to neutral territory. In contrast, confidence in Federal Economic Policies improved slightly, rising to 40.2 from 39.8.

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose slightly to 93.5 in May 2026, remaining close to the over five-year low of 93.2 recorded in April but exceeding market expectations of 92.8. Sentiment stayed weak, reflecting mounting concerns over the economic outlook amid the escalating Iran conflict. Among sectors, confidence improved slightly for service providers (2.2 vs. 1.4 in April) and consumers (-19.0 vs. -20.6), but deteriorated further for manufacturers (-8.0 vs. -7.7), retailers (-10.9 vs. -10.0), and constructors (-3.6 vs. -2.8). On the pricing front, consumer inflation expectations fell to 40.5 from a four-year high of 48.8, while manufacturers’ selling price expectations eased to 27.4 from April’s over three-year high of 30.2. In the largest Eurozone economies, the ESI increased in Germany (+1.0) and France (+0.9), remained broadly stable in Italy (+0.1) and Spain (-0.1), and declined in the Netherlands (-0.9).

Brazil's seasonally adjusted FGV-IBRE Consumer Confidence Index retreated 0.3 points to 88.8 in May 2026, following two consecutive months of improvement. The survey showed mixed signals across components, with the Expectations Index (IE) falling 1.0 point to 91.3, while the Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 0.8 points to 86.1, its highest level since December 2014 (86.5). The decline was driven by weaker expectations for the coming months alongside a still favorable assessment of current conditions, with the current situation index holding at its highest level since end-2014. Consumers earning up to R$4,800 showed a deterioration in future expectations, reflecting greater sensitivity to economic uncertainty. Overall, the May results point to stable current conditions but increased caution about the outlook ahead,” said Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV IBRE.