The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded around 1.82% on Friday, faltering from earlier levels close to 1.85%, as investors digested a fresh batch of economic data. The employment cost index, cited by Chairman Powell as a key metric, rose 1.0% over the previous quarter in Q4, easing from a 1.3% increase in the prior period and missing market forecasts of 1.2% gain. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell 0.6% in December, as expected, reflecting the anticipation of the holiday shopping season to November and pandemic-related supply chain issues. On the other hand, Core PCE prices, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, jumped to a near four-decade high of 4.9% in December, surpassing market expectations of 4.8% and continued its upward trend above the inflation target of 2%. On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a rate hike in March as expected, while suggesting more frequent and larger interest rate increases could happen this year. source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Historically, the United States Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. United States Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on January of 2022.
The United States Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 1.84 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.05 in 12 months time.