Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Stock Market (points) 31097.26 30255 29434 28637 27860 26370
Currency 105.14 106 107 108 109 111
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.89 3.02 3.14 3.26 3.39 3.67

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.60 2.8 2.5 2 1.8 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.50 3 2 2.5 2.5 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 390.00 300 380 420 270 280
Inflation Rate (%) 8.60 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.4 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.00 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 1.75 2.75 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -87077.00 -85000 -60000 -49000 -70000 -51000
Current Account (USD Million) -291418.00 -230000 -210000 -200000 -200000 -180000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 137.20 138 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.70 -7.7 -7.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Business Confidence (points) 53.00 51 50 53 53 56
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.70 53 51 52 51.7 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.90 53 52 50 54 52
Services PMI (points) 51.60 52 50.8 54 54 50.8
Consumer Confidence (points) 50.00 53 50 53 54 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.30 0.5 1 0.6 0.6 1
Building Permits (Thousand) 1695.00 1700 1600 1550 1500 1600
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.60 2.8 2.5 2 1.8 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.50 3 2 2.5 2.5 2.1
GDP (USD Billion) 20936.60 21500 22790 22790 22790 23420
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19727.90 19756 20063 20202 20221 20627
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19944.20 19959 20299 20439 20443 20869
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3673.90 3665 3693 3681 3766 3759
GDP per capita (USD) 58510.24 62200 62200 63000 63000 63000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 60235.73 61500 61500 62000 62000 62000
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 5.70 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 238.00 245 244 244 244 249
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 650.20 685 662 666 666 676
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2333.30 2390 2429 2392 2392 2480
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 392.00 420 428 402 402 437
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2257.30 2313 2291 2314 2314 2339
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13758.40 13912 14061 14102 14102 14356
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 504.10 520 526 517 517 537
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 281.90 286 277 289 289 283

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 390.00 300 380 420 270 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 333.00 270 350 400 260 310
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 57.00 30 30 20 10 70
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 18.00 20 30 40 55 20
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 231.00 200 270 240 240 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1328.00 1500 1600 1600 1600 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 128.00 300 350 400 400 210
Employed Persons (Thousand) 158426.00 158900 159500 160000 160000 165000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 5950.00 6000 5900 6000 6000 6000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.60 35 35 34.8 34.9 35
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.30 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.4 62.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.07 1 1 0.95 0.95 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 7.80 7.9 7.9 8 7.6 7.7
Labour Costs (points) 127.95 126 128 129 131 134
Productivity (points) 110.98 110 114 114 114 112
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 11981.00 9800 9600 9500 9500 9000
Job Offers (Thousand) 11400.00 9600 9000 8900 8900 7900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 20712.00 28000 28000 25000 25000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 27.33 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.67
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 24.93 24.89 25.16 25.3 25.17 26.31
Wage Growth (%) 11.00 4 3.6 2 2 4
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 10 10 10 10 12.5
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.40 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Population (Million) 332.40 333 335 335 335 335
Retirement Age Women 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Employment Rate (%) 60.10 60.8 61 60.7 60.7 60
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 132800.00 134500 135000 136000 136000 135000
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25766.00 25000 24600 24500 24500 24600
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 231.75 230 220 200 200 270

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 8.60 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.4 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.00 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 292.30 295 296 296 302 302
Core Consumer Prices (points) 292.29 295 295 296 300 304
Core Inflation Rate (%) 6.00 5.4 4 3.7 2.5 2.7
GDP Deflator (points) 123.58 127 128 129 130 131
Producer Prices (points) 138.66 139 141 141 145 148
Producer Prices Change (%) 10.80 9 7 6 6 5
Export Prices (points) 165.30 158 147 145 145 139
Import Prices (points) 148.40 142 145 140 140 150
Food Inflation (%) 10.10 7.8 6.5 4.2 3 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.80 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Core Producer Prices (points) 134.50 138 140 142 142 145
Core Pce Price Index (points) 122.24 130 132 135 135 140
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 297.87 304 306 306 308 311
CPI Transportation (points) 274.28 275 276 277 278 279
Pce Price Index (points) 122.05 125 128 130 130 135
Inflation Expectations (%) 6.60 4.8 4 3.5 3 3

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Interest Rate (%) 1.75 2.75 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.75
Interbank Rate (%) 2.28 2.1 2.55 2 3.2 3.2
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 37610.00 42500 42150 43000 43000 42602
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8934346.00 8500000 8400000 8200000 8200000 8000000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22653.50 21000 20556 20000 19500 20800
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2599.42 2350 2400 2300 2300 2400
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 224 224 224 224
Repo Rate 1.55 1.48 1.63 1.78 1.78 2.2

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -87077.00 -85000 -60000 -49000 -70000 -51000
Current Account (USD Million) -291418.00 -230000 -210000 -200000 -200000 -180000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Imports (USD Million) 339697.00 280000 269000 280000 280000 271000
Exports (USD Million) 252621.00 220000 220000 210000 210000 220000
External Debt (USD Million) 23930437.00 218000000 217000000 2150000000 2150000000 22134407
Terms of Trade (points) 114.66 116 111 101 104 92.67
Capital Flows (USD Million) 1300.00 50000 23000 23000 23000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 70681.00 52000 54000 60000 60000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11655.00 11900 12200 12500 12500 12600
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 10110.00 15000 18200 18200 18200 18200
Tourist Arrivals 2269089.00 8000000 5760000 8000000 8000000 4760100
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -104310.00 -95000 -80500 -95000 -95000 -74500

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 137.20 138 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -16.70 -7.7 -7.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -66000.00 30000 -30000 20000 30000 50000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3334.30 3441 3483 3426 3418 3498
Government Revenues (USD Million) 388993.00 390000 370000 350000 350000 370000
Government Debt (USD Million) 30499619.00 31020000 30900000 30600000 30600000 30000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 455216.00 420000 350000 320000 320000 320000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Business Confidence (points) 53.00 51 50 53 53 56
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.70 53 51 52 51.7 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.90 53 52 50 54 52
Services PMI (points) 51.60 52 50.8 54 54 50.8
Composite PMI (points) 51.20 53 51.8 53 50 51.8
Industrial Production (%) 5.40 3 3.6 3 3 3.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.10 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.2 1.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 4.70 2 1 4 4 1
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.80 79.5 79 79 78 77.5
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.70 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.60 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.70 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Factory Orders (%) 0.30 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2
Business Inventories (%) 1.20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) 188.50 90 45 60 60 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 2.00 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 13160.00 16500 18000 20000 20000 21000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2402.90 2300 2270 2100 2100 2070
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 93.10 96 102 105 105 102
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -3.30 7 5 20 20 15
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -1.20 12 26 14 14 6
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -11.00 2 6 10 20 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) 0.01 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.2
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -17.70 -2 10 10 8 10
Chicago PMI (points) 56.00 54 52 50 50 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 12.70 14 15 15 15.2 18
Car Production (Million Units) 1.83 2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.7
Car Registrations (Thousand) 266.28 220 230 240 240 260
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -2.76 -2 -2 -2 -2 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 2645.00 500 500 500 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (billion cubic feet ) 82.00 100 100 100 100 -150
Leading Economic Index (points) 134.19 122 120 120 120 128
Crude Oil Rigs 595.00 580 560 550 540 550
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -3.80 6 6 2 2 0.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 7200.00 7000 6500 6800 6800 6350
Mining Production (%) 7.60 3 2 5 5 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -1.00 6 5 12 12 5

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) 50.00 53 50 53 54 60
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.30 0.5 1 0.6 0.6 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 8.09 2 4 2 2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.50 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.2
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13881.10 13939 14144 14095 14228 14391
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18481.16 17600 17400 17000 17000 17800
Personal Spending (%) 0.20 0.3 1 0.2 0.2 1
Personal Income (%) 0.50 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6
Personal Savings (%) 5.40 5.2 5.4 6 6.1 7.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 38.07 23.85 24.46 23.37 48.52 23.86
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 11203.44 10200 10000 10500 10500 10000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 4.38 4.5 5 5.25 5.5 3.75
Economic Optimism Index 38.10 48 50 52 52 50
Redbook Index (%) 11.70 5 2.1 3 3 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 2628.00 2700 6700 2500 2500 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.30 1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5 1.5
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 78.50 82 82 80 80 82

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Building Permits (Thousand) 1695.00 1700 1600 1550 1500 1600
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1549.00 1680 1570 1600 1600 1500
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 696.00 720 700 680 680 700
Pending Home Sales (%) -13.58 6 7 3 3 7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5410.00 5400 5300 5200 5200 5000
Construction Spending (%) -0.10 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Housing Index (points) 392.86 355 345 340 340 380
Nahb Housing Market Index 67.00 70 74 80 80 80
Mortgage Rate (%) 5.84 5.8 6 6.2 6 6
Mortgage Applications (%) 0.70 2 0.6 1 1 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 312.55 283 280 270 250 284
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.40 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.4 65.5


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United States Forecast - was last updated on Sunday, July 3, 2022.