Markets Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Currency 96.00 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 34297.73 33519 32838 32171 31518 30251
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.78 1.84 1.9 1.97 2.05 2.2

Overview Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.30 3.1 2 1.8 2.5 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 2.1 2 3 2 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 199.00 350 500 400 280 280
Inflation Rate (%) 7.00 6.2 5 3.8 2.3 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.50 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1.75
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -80200.00 -82000 -59000 -70000 -49000 -51000
Current Account (USD Million) -214774.00 -167000 -140000 -160000 -137000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 128.10 118 118 118 118 120
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -5.2
Business Confidence (points) 58.70 53 55 53 56 56
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.00 54.2 54 53 51 52
Services PMI (points) 50.90 52 53 52 50.8 50.8
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 62.00 58 52 52 52 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 68.80 68 72 75 84 85
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.90 0.6 0.3 0.5 1 1
Building Permits (Thousand) 1873.00 1550 1500 1450 1400 1400
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.30 3.1 2 1.8 2.5 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 2.1 2 3 2 2.1
GDP (USD Billion) 20936.60 21500 21500 21500 22790 23420
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19478.89 19481 19456 19756 20063 19871
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19707.31 19709 19667 19959 20299 20104
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3585.04 3588 3639 3665 3693 3660
GDP per capita (USD) 58510.24 56200 56200 56200 55000 57000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 60235.73 60500 60500 60500 61100 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 237.40 276 263 248 245 282
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 665.30 699 699 705 685 713
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2320.20 2319 2318 2376 2390 2366
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 408.00 445 443 425 420 454
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2245.90 2263 2227 2263 2313 2308
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13507.00 13416 13444 13647 13912 13685
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 505.00 521 521 501 520 531
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 277.70 300 293 296 286 306

Labour Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.90 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.3
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 199.00 350 500 400 280 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 211.00 280 450 500 400 310
Government Payrolls (Thousand) -12.00 -20 2 15 60 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 26.00 40 35 20 20 20
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 286.00 230 215 200 270 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1635.00 1800 1750 1700 1700 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 807.00 290 200 300 350 210
Employed Persons (Thousand) 155975.00 156000 156500 157000 157500 158000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6319.00 6700 6600 6300 6000 6000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.70 34.8 34.9 35 35 35
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.90 62 62.3 62.5 62.5 62.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.24 1.2 1.1 1 0.95 0.8
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.20 8.7 8.9 8.6 8.8 8.8
Labour Costs (points) 122.71 129 123 122 126 134
Productivity (points) 111.28 114 114 114 114 116
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 9912.00 10600 10000 9800 9600 8600
Job Offers (Thousand) 10562.00 10000 9800 9600 9000 7900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 19052.00 33000 35000 40000 40000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 26.61 26.26 26.23 26.94 27.57 28.67
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 24.42 24.24 24.17 24.92 25.3 26.31
Wage Growth (%) 9.77 3.9 2 3 3.6 4
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 10 10 10 10 12.5
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.30 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 333 333 333 335 335
Retirement Age Women 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Retirement Age Men 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.5
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 130191.00 130627 132000 134500 135000 135000
Employment Rate (%) 59.50 59.1 59.5 59.8 60 60
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25681.00 26500 26800 27000 26600 26600
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 231.00 250 230 230 220 270

Prices Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 7.00 6.2 5 3.8 2.3 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.50 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 280.19 281 285 285 287 292
Core Consumer Prices (points) 284.76 284 289 290 292 300
Core Inflation Rate (%) 5.50 4.8 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.7
GDP Deflator (points) 119.12 123 123 124 122 124
Producer Prices (points) 131.48 134 136 137 138 145
Producer Prices Change (%) 9.70 8.6 7.5 6 5 5
Export Prices (points) 143.90 148 149 145 144 139
Import Prices (points) 137.50 143 145 142 145 150
Food Inflation (%) 6.30 5 3 1.8 2 2
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 287.51 293 294 295 294 300
CPI Transportation (points) 246.50 248 249 250 251 253
Core Producer Prices (points) 129.80 132 136 138 140 145
Core Pce Price Index (points) 119.47 120 120 130 132 140
Pce Price Index (points) 118.20 119 121 121 122 126
Inflation Expectations (%) 6.00 5.5 4 2.8 3 3

Money Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 1.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.26 0.2 0.45 0.45 0.7 0.9
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 40816.00 42150 43150 43500 42150 42602
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8867834.00 8700000 8600000 8400000 8400000 8000000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22845.70 21600 21050 21000 20556 20800
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2495.69 2416 2420 2450 2400 2400
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 228 228 224 224
Repo Rate 0.05 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.23 0.33

Trade Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -80200.00 -82000 -59000 -70000 -49000 -51000
Current Account (USD Million) -214774.00 -167000 -140000 -160000 -137000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2
Imports (USD Million) 304388.00 292000 274000 280000 269000 271000
Exports (USD Million) 224215.00 210000 215000 210000 220000 220000
External Debt (USD Million) 22824293.00 22900000 219000000 219000000 21934407 22134407
Terms of Trade (points) 112.71 104 103 102 99.31 92.67
Capital Flows (USD Million) 223900.00 35000 45000 50000 23000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 74515.00 63000 50000 52000 54000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11473.00 11500 11650 11900 12200 14000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -97780.00 -95000 -88000 -75000 -74500 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 6169.00 10460 11600 15000 18200 18200
Tourist Arrivals 2002051.00 4000000 6000000 8000000 4760100 4760100

Government Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 128.10 118 118 118 118 120
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -5.2
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -21303.00 -100000 50000 70000 50000 50000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3381.57 3484 3462 3441 3483 3553
Government Revenues (USD Million) 486738.00 280000 390000 390000 370000 370000
Government Debt (USD Million) 29617215.00 286000000 28620000 28620000 29000000 30000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 508041.00 380000 340000 320000 320000 320000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4 38.4

Taxes Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Business Confidence (points) 58.70 53 55 53 56 56
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.00 54.2 54 53 51 52
Services PMI (points) 50.90 52 53 52 50.8 50.8
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 62.00 58 52 52 52 52
Composite PMI (points) 50.80 53 56 53 51.8 51.8
Industrial Production (%) 3.70 3.6 3 2 3.6 3.2
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 3.50 3 0.5 2 1 1
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.50 76.2 77.4 77.5 77 77
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.50 0.3 1 1.2 0.8 0.8
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 2.00 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.80 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.80 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4
Factory Orders (%) 1.60 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2
Business Inventories (%) 1.30 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -66.77 25 100 90 45 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 1.40 1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 16140.00 18550 19000 16500 18000 21000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2522.70 2370 2400 2300 2270 2070
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 98.90 97 95 96 102 102
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -0.70 18 10 6 6 6
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 23.20 12 10 7 5 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 8.00 8.5 5 6 5 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.15 0.5 1 0.9 -0.2 -0.2
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 8.10 17 12 10 10 10
Chicago PMI (points) 63.10 58 55 52 54 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 12.44 14.5 15.7 16 17.5 18
Car Production (Million Units) 1.78 1.6 1.8 2 2.7 2.7
Car Registrations (Thousand) 223.81 260 320 380 450 460
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) 0.52 4 -3 -2 -2 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 5873.00 1000 -150 500 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) -206.00 -120 100 100 100 -150
Leading Economic Index (points) 131.39 130 125 122 128 128
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -0.87 4 4 4 4 0.5
Crude Oil Rigs 491.00 480 470 450 460 390
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 7200.00 7210 7200 7000 6500 6350
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 10.00 18 9 6 5 5
Mining Production (%) 11.00 6.8 2 3 2 2

Consumer Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) 68.80 68 72 75 84 85
Retail Sales MoM (%) -1.90 0.6 0.3 0.5 1 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 16.90 5.8 4.5 2 4 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -2.30 0.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.2
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13723.73 13803 13562 13939 14135 13688
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18168.77 17500 17000 17200 17400 17800
Personal Spending (%) 0.60 0.7 0.5 0.3 1 1
Personal Income (%) 0.40 0.6 1 1 0.6 0.6
Personal Savings (%) 6.90 9.5 9.5 8 8 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 39.99 19.8 38.95 28.65 40.79 41.65
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10715.59 10700 10500 10000 10000 10000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75
Economic Optimism Index 44.70 48 50 50 50 50
Redbook Index (%) 15.60 11.5 7.5 5 2.1 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 4222.00 3000 2800 2700 4200 5800
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.87 0.83 0.79 0.75 0.71 0.67
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 79.00 80 81 82 82 82

Housing Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023
Building Permits (Thousand) 1873.00 1550 1500 1450 1400 1400
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1702.00 1500 1400 1380 1370 1370
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 744.00 770 750 720 700 700
Pending Home Sales (%) -2.70 -10.7 5 6 7 7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6180.00 6200 5900 5600 5500 5500
Construction Spending (%) 0.40 -0.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index 83.00 73 75 76 63 63
Housing Index (points) 362.40 355 350 360 365 380
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.64 3.5 3.7 3.8 4 4.5
Mortgage Applications (%) 2.30 2.6 2 2 0.6 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 282.44 279 272 273 275 284
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.40 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.5 65.5


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United States Forecast - was last updated on Wednesday, January 26, 2022.