The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an upwardly revised +0.44 in the previous month, suggesting there was a contraction in economic activity following a two-month period of expansion. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. Production-related indicators contributed –0.13 to the CFNAI in December, down from +0.25 in November, while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category decreased to –0.19 from –0.02. At the same time, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked down to +0.03 in December from +0.05 in the previous month, and employment-related indicators contributed +0.13 to the index, down slightly from +0.16. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 points from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 6.01 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.79 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2022.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.50 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.20 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.15 0.44 6.01 -17.79 1967 - 2021 points Monthly
NSA

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-12-22 01:30 PM Nov 0.37 0.75 0.51
2022-01-24 01:30 PM Dec -0.15 0.44 0.49
2022-02-24 01:30 PM Jan -0.15 0.25


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15 0.44 points Dec/21


News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an upwardly revised +0.44 in the previous month, suggesting there was a contraction in economic activity following a two-month period of expansion. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. Production-related indicators contributed –0.13 to the CFNAI in December, down from +0.25 in November, while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category decreased to –0.19 from –0.02. At the same time, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked down to +0.03 in December from +0.05 in the previous month, and employment-related indicators contributed +0.13 to the index, down slightly from +0.16.
2022-01-24
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Edges Down
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to 0.37 in November of 2021, from a three-month high of 0.75 in October, pointing to a slowdown in US economic growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.21 in November, down from +0.42 in October, as industrial production increased 0.5%, after rising 1.7% in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category edged down to +0.03 from +0.06; employment-related indicators contributed +0.18, down slightly from +0.23; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category moved down to –0.05 in November from +0.04 in October. On the other hand, the index’s three-month moving average moved up to +0.37 in November from +0.25 in October.
2021-12-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jumps in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index jumped to a 3-month high +0.76 in October of 2021 from -0.18 in September, pointing to a pickup in economic growth, led by improvements in production related indicators (contribution of +0.44, up from -0.35 in September), as industrial production surged 1.6%, rebounding from a 1.3% drop in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved up to +0.05 from +0.01; employment-related indicators contributed +0.24, up from +0.16; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked up to +0.03 from +0.01. On the other hand, the index’s three-month moving average edged down to +0.21 from +0.22.
2021-11-22