Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Currency 1.23 1.21 1.2 1.18 1.17 1.14
Stock Market (points) 7265.70 7016 6827 6644 6466 6124
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.38 2.45 2.6 2.76 2.93 3.3

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.80 0.1 0.8 -1 0.5 0.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 8.70 1.7 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 4
Inflation Rate (%) 9.10 9.5 10 11 7.4 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 1.25 1.25 2 2.5 2.5 2.75
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -8503.00 -600 -800 -800 -1000 -500
Current Account (GBP Million) -7300.00 -15200 -21400 -23200 -24600 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.50 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -4.8 -4.8
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.00 97.9 97.9 97.9 97.8 97.8
Government Budget (% of GDP) -15.00 -5.4 -5.4 -5.4 -3.9 -3.9
Business Confidence (points) -34.00 -34 -45 -40 -15 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.40 53.4 54.2 53.6 54 52.9
Services PMI (points) 53.40 53.4 53.8 54 54.4 53.6
Consumer Confidence (points) -41.00 -42 -25 -19 -5 5
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.2 -0.9 0.7 1 0.4
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.80 0.1 0.8 -1 0.5 0.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 8.70 1.7 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.3
GDP (USD Billion) 2707.74 3200 3200 3200 3400 3400
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 569055.00 561914 572758 578932 579867 586458
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 606343.00 582055 595742 621502 617864 629581
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 102334.00 97302 98658 99520 104278 100814
GDP per capita (USD) 41811.36 41900 41900 41900 42700 42700
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 41627.13 44910 44910 44910 46700 46700
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 7.40 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.5 2.5
Monthly GDP MoM (%) -0.30 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 3.40 2.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.5
GDP From Agriculture (GBP Million) 3362.00 3199 3242 3426 3426 3470
GDP From Construction (GBP Million) 32051.00 31801 31630 31645 32660 32056
GDP From Manufacturing (GBP Million) 49900.00 49870 49941 50497 50848 51153
GDP From Mining (GBP Million) 3948.00 3404 4238 4056 4023 4109
GDP From Public Administration (GBP Million) 25177.00 25810 26160 26043 25655 26382
GDP From Services (GBP Million) 406933.00 399212 409980 415240 414665 420638
GDP From Transport (GBP Million) 20778.00 17964 19033 20560 21173 20828

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 4
Employed Persons (Thousand) 32707.00 32780 32880 32980 3300 33240
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1584.20 1910 1950 1940 1920 1870
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 8145.00 8400 8400 8400 8500 8500
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 24562.00 24800 24700 24600 24600 24800
Employment Rate (%) 75.60 75.6 75.7 75.9 76.2 76.3
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) -19.70 -25 10 16 12 -5
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.70 79 79 79.2 79.4 79.4
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 10.80 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.8 10.9
Productivity (points) 101.90 102 102 103 103 103
Labour Costs (points) 109.60 115 116 115 114 118
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 1300.00 1190 1080 1020 980 850
Wages (GBP/Week) 604.00 616 618 630 641 648
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 655.00 680 676 688 698 707
Wage Growth (%) 6.80 6.8 5.9 5 4.2 2.8
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 9.50 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 10.14
Population (Million) 67.08 67.44 67.44 67.44 67.95 67.95
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Change (Thousand) 177.00 30 45 36 30 25
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 31.90 32.1 32.2 32.2 32 31.9

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 9.10 9.5 10 11 7.4 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 120.80 122 124 128 126 132
Harmonised Consumer Prices (points) 120.80 122 124 128 126 132
Core Consumer Prices (points) 117.70 119 121 125 124 128
Core Inflation Rate (%) 5.90 6.4 7.5 8.5 6.7 2.8
GDP Deflator (points) 108.40 114 115 118 116 122
Producer Prices Change (%) 15.70 8.8 6.9 3.6 3.2 2.5
Food Inflation (%) 8.60 3.4 2.2 1.8 2 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 1.60 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 1.50 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 14.80 8.5 6.7 3.5 3.4 2.5
Inflation Expectations (%) 6.10 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 128.60 118 119 124 122 129
CPI Transportation (points) 133.80 134 135 135 136 136
Core Producer Prices (points) 129.50 123 125 124 129 128
Producer Prices (points) 129.40 123 123 123 128 126
Retail Price Index (%) 11.70 10.4 8.9 8.2 5.6 3.6

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Interest Rate (%) 1.25 1.25 2 2.5 2.5 2.75
Money Supply M0 (GBP Million) 95171.00 98950 98500 98900 99700 105100
Money Supply M1 (GBP Million) 2421112.00 2384500 2340500 2360800 2382000 2420800
Interbank Rate (%) 1.63 1.63 2.38 2.88 2.88 3.13
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3037813.00 3006600 3029600 3049100 3069100 3129100
Money Supply M3 (GBP Million) 3556292.00 3540000 3510000 3550000 3570000 3660000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 1087758.00 1088000 1092400 1096500 1097100 1099100
Banks Balance Sheet (GBP Million) 4519499.00 4522000 4529000 4532000 4555000 4620000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2698489.00 2761000 2784000 2810000 2840000 2910000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 1 1.5 1.5 1.75
Lending Rate (%) 0.75 0.75 1.5 2 2 2.25
Private Debt to GDP (%) 212.80 215 215 215 211 211

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -8503.00 -600 -800 -800 -1000 -500
Current Account (GBP Million) -7300.00 -15200 -21400 -23200 -24600 -25500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.50 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -4.8 -4.8
Imports (GBP Million) 66881.00 62200 62900 63500 64200 66100
Exports (GBP Million) 58378.00 61600 62100 62700 63200 65600
External Debt (GBP Million) 7344995.00 7308000 7349000 7277000 7304000 7429000
Capital Flows (GBP Million) 12283.00 14500 12700 11600 15500 17500
Foreign Direct Investment (GBP Million) -10541.00 12800 -6800 10500 17600 12600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 310.29 310 310 310 310 310
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 846.00 850 870 900 920 850
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP Million) -10988.00 -7400 -7800 -8100 -7700 -8600
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -20893.00 -13800 -14200 -14800 -13600 -16700
Tourism Revenues (GBP Million) 1152.00 2870 4500 3600 2890 5910
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 1308.00 3200 4890 4500 4150 6500

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 94.00 97.9 97.9 97.9 97.8 97.8
Government Budget (% of GDP) -15.00 -5.4 -5.4 -5.4 -3.9 -3.9
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -13990.00 -14800 -15200 -12300 -25710 -7500
Government Spending (GBP Million) 115215.00 109100 118648 111200 117404 110600
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 52.00 42 42 42 41.9 41.9
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2363.20 2450 2410 2440 2490 2510
Fiscal Expenditure (GBP Million) 74018.00 81500 82600 82900 98460 80700
Government Revenues (GBP Million) 66577.00 66700 67400 70600 72750 73200
Asylum Applications (persons) 15452.00 16500 12600 9900 8650 7100

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 19.00 19 19 19 19 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 20.00 20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate (%) 27.80 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05 29.05
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 13.80 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43 14.43
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 14.00 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63 14.63

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Business Confidence (points) -34.00 -34 -45 -40 -15 7
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.40 53.4 54.2 53.6 54 52.9
Services PMI (points) 53.40 53.4 53.8 54 54.4 53.6
Industrial Production (%) 0.70 1.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.4
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.60 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.50 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 2.5
Factory Orders (Net Balance) 18.00 15 10 8 12 5
New Orders (GBP Million) 12967.00 12900 13200 13600 13800 14180
Bankruptcies (Companies) 4896.00 5000 5200 5100 4900 3900
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 139210.00 137000 138000 139000 141000 145000
Car Production (Units) 60554.00 65000 82000 67000 92800 99000
Car Registrations 124394.00 172000 227000 108000 250000 110000
Small Business Sentiment -31.00 15 11 12 15 19
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) -1.50 -0.5 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.9
Manufacturing Production MoM (Percent) -1.00 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.20 0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3
Mining Production (%) 18.80 15.2 32 2.3 2.6 2
Composite PMI (points) 53.10 53.1 51.6 50.5 51.8 53.4
Private Investment (%) -0.50 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) -41.00 -42 -25 -19 -5 5
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.50 0.2 -0.9 0.7 1 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -4.70 2 4 3.4 3.2 2.6
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 358229.00 351639 364575 365577 365035 370329
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 374155.00 375772 387157 383509 381264 388494
Personal Savings (%) 6.50 6.5 6.6 7 6.4 6
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 3 3.5 3.5 3.75
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 87.70 88 88 88 85 85
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 2.19 2.27 2.35 2.44 2.52 2.52
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1399.00 690 385 1019 1312 1032
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -5.00 -9 11 9 10 11

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Housing Starts (units) 42350.00 34900 45800 42710 50200 44710
Construction Output (%) 3.90 -22.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 4.2
Housing Index (points) 498.52 501 496 498 505 514
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 65.97 55 51 54 56 62
House Price Index MoM (%) 1.00 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5
House Price Index YoY (%) 10.50 11.7 7.6 4.5 3.6 3.4
Home Loans (GBP Million) 4121.00 3400 4400 2900 3200 3600
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.20 65 65 65 64.5 64.5
Mortgage Rate (%) 4.25 4.32 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 538.68 547 534 531 548 549
Construction PMI (points) 56.40 56.2 54.9 54.5 53.8 52.9
Construction Orders (%) 13.40 -88 2.1 1.4 3 3.6


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United Kingdom Forecast - was last updated on Monday, June 27, 2022.