The Polish 10-year government bond yield rose to 8% in June, the highest in over 20 years, as surging inflation and a weaker zloty ramped up expectations of tighter policy by the National Bank of Poland. Despite growth concerns, the NBP hiked its key interest rate by 75bps to 6% in its June meeting to curb the rise in consumer prices. Annual inflation in Poland rose to a 1997 high of 13.9 percent in May, and inflation expectations remain high as commodity prices extend their upward trend amid the prolonged war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the job market remains tight, as April unemployment figures edged closer to the near 30-year lows touched in 2019. Meanwhile, the Polish Government announced it will spend USD 1.7 billion on aid to Ukrainian refugees, allowing Ukrainians to work in Poland for now while giving them access to social benefits and public healthcare.
Historically, the Poland Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 13.98 in October of 2000. Poland Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2022.
The Poland Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 7.24 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7.97 in 12 months time.