Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Currency 19.85 20.67 21.01 21.36 21.71 22.44
Stock Market (points) 47741.50 46830 45673 44545 43445 41325
Government Bond 10Y (%) 9.00 9.31 9.42 9.53 9.64 9.87

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 0.1 0.6 0.9 1 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 0.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.00 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3
Inflation Rate (%) 7.65 7.83 7.03 6.4 5.3 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.18 0.47 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 7.75 7.75 8 8.25 8.25 8.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -1884.00 199 198 197 196 192
Current Account (USD Million) -6523.00 3661 -6282 4324 -6539 5800
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 2.40 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 52.10 49 49 49 49 50
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -3 -3 -3 -2.9 -0.5
Business Confidence (points) 52.30 52 53 53 52 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.60 50 50 51 51 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 44.20 43 44 44 45 44
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 0.1 0.6 0.9 1 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 0.9 2.1 2.2 2.5 2
GDP (USD Billion) 1076.16 1275 1275 1275 1275 1380
GDP Constant Prices (MXN Million) 18027967.00 18068914 18156113 18240553 18478666 18605364
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (MXN Million) 3248819.00 3257159 3337541 3320293 3330039 3386699
GDP per capita (USD) 8927.34 10300 10300 10300 10300 10500
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 17887.75 19800 19800 19800 19800 20000
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 4.80 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8
GDP Aggregate Demand QoQ (%) 1.20 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5
GDP Aggregate Demand YoY (%) 2.90 0.2 0.7 -1.7 2 2
GDP From Agriculture (MXN Million) 573530.95 629323 531192 750726 587869 765740
GDP From Construction (MXN Million) 1080204.00 1080869 1110382 1098646 1107209 1120619
GDP From Manufacturing (MXN Million) 2989102.00 2899642 2957139 2983417 3063830 3043086
GDP From Mining (MXN Million) 909147.00 861833 880213 873665 931876 891138
GDP From Public Administration (MXN Million) 702444.57 756967 709056 726238 720006 740763
GDP From Services (MXN Million) 11148773.83 11620201 11381539 11846807 11427493 12083743
GDP From Transport (MXN Million) 1168731.00 1129946 1127103 1210476 1197949 1234686
GDP From Utilities (MXN Million) 251900.00 273497 295118 270992 258198 276412

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.00 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3
Employed Persons 56079123.00 56700000 57000000 575000000 575000000 59000000
Unemployed Persons 2006191.00 2200900 2400900 2200900 2200900 2200500
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 60.10 59 59 59 60 60
Labour Costs (points) 96.90 100 106 140 140 145
Productivity (points) 99.50 95 96 98 98 95
Wages (MXN/Day) 480.45 465 470 475 475 490
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 3.00 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4
Minimum Wages (MXN/Day) 172.87 170 170 170 170 215
Population (Million) 126.25 126 126 126 127 127
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate (%) 96.97 96.4 96.4 96.6 96.6 97

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 7.65 7.83 7.03 6.4 5.3 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.18 0.47 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 121.02 122 123 125 127 130
Core Consumer Prices (points) 119.77 121 121 122 124 127
Core Inflation Rate (%) 7.28 7.39 6.57 5.79 4.56 3.5
Producer Prices (points) 118.49 119 121 123 126 128
Export Prices (points) 130.57 126 128 130 130 132
Import Prices (points) 291.35 280 282 285 285 290
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (%) 7.47 7.06 5.81 5.01 3.78 3.5
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.49 0.23 0.37 0.33 0.3 0.3
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (%) 7.88 7.61 7 5.71 5 4
Food Inflation (%) 12.79 10 8 5.5 5 4.5
CPI Transportation (points) 117.69 118 119 119 119 120
Producer Prices Change (%) 8.96 8.7 9.5 8.3 7.5 4
Inflation Expectations (%) 4.92 4 4 3 3 3

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Interest Rate (%) 7.75 7.75 8 8.25 8.25 8.25
Interbank Rate (%) 7.01 7.76 8.01 8.26 8.26 8.01
Money Supply M0 (MXN Million) 2463886.20 2400800 2450000 2600500 2600500 2800200
Money Supply M1 (MXN Thousand) 6428960894.00 6600300900 6700700700 7200000400 7200000400 7900200500
Money Supply M2 (MXN Thousand) 11511441115.00 11413864653 11413864653 11777421244 11777421244 12504534425
Money Supply M3 (MXN Thousand) 13684900218.00 14031845336 14031845336 14668419441 14668419441 15941567649
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 207105.00 213000 215548 217718 219888 225674
Banks Balance Sheet (MXN Million) 9566298.00 9516709 9622670 9728631 9834592 10152476
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 1.73 2.48 2.73 2.98 2.98 2.73
Central Bank Balance Sheet (MXN Thousand) 4576075641.00 5350000000 5500000000 5750000000 5750000000 65000000000

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -1884.00 199 198 197 196 192
Current Account (USD Million) -6523.00 3661 -6282 4324 -6539 5800
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 2.40 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9
Imports (USD Million) 49363.53 50116 50409 50702 50995 51874
Exports (USD Million) 47479.47 50315 50607 50899 51191 52066
External Debt (USD Million) 447827.90 470000 465000 460000 460000 445000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 19427.50 7500 4300 6300 6300 7800
Remittances (USD Million ) 12521.39 16400 1700 17500 17500 18700
Tourism Revenues (USD Thousand) 1474183.06 1748789 1390102 2650505 1967313 2202872
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2097.01 1873 1314 2442 1893 2443
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 119.91 120 120 120 120 120
Capital Flows (USD Million) -6.20 -10 -15.7 -10.9 -10.9 -12
Auto Exports (Thousand Units) 244.64 239 241 242 244 300
Non Oil Exports (USD Million) 43654.77 40050 40400 41300 41300 43000
Oil Exports (USD Million) 3824.69 2700 2800 2900 2900 3400

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 52.10 49 49 49 49 50
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -3 -3 -3 -2.9 -0.5
Government Budget Value (MXN Million) 53440.00 -118000 154081 -170000 108807 129604
Government Spending (MXN Million) 2184930.00 2295136 2160512 2232998 2239553 2277658
Government Revenues (MXN Million) 443372.17 446471 511752 506915 472258 527567
Fiscal Expenditure (MXN Million) 563728.42 380621 357671 386402 363451 397963
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 6607.00 6000 6000 5800 5800 6100

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 16.00 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate (%) 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Business Confidence (points) 52.30 52 53 53 52 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.60 50 50 51 51 51
Industrial Production (%) 2.70 -0.6 1.2 1.5 2.1 2
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.60 -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 3.87 1.1 1.5 2 2.5 2.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 85.40 80 79 79 78 80
Changes in Inventories (MXN Million) 76098.00 93500 95400 97300 97300 141508
Total Vehicle Sales (Units) 43359.00 39200 36800 55000 55000 55000
Car Production (Thousand Units) 275.44 300 315 250 310 320
Car Registrations 43359.00 46000 47000 48000 48000 52000
Leading Economic Index (points) 108.70 106 107 107 108 109
Private Investment (%) 5.90 2 2 2 2 2
Mining Production (%) 0.00 0.5 1.5 2 2.5 2

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) 44.20 43 44 44 45 44
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.60 0.5 2.1 2.8 2 2
Consumer Spending (MXN Million) 12452892.00 12057663 12242054 12838697 12764214 13095471
Personal Savings (%) 19.80 21 21 21 21 21
Consumer Credit (MXN Million) 1359649.90 1292096 1325181 1364535 1393641 1391826
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.28 1.28
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 16.40 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.8

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Construction Output (%) 1.72 -2.5 0.5 1 1.5 1.5


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Mexico Forecast - was last updated on Saturday, June 25, 2022.