Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Currency 20.68 20.58 20.92 21.26 21.6 22.31
Stock Market (points) 47503.22 46530 45346 44196 43074 40912
Government Bond 10Y (%) 8.88 9 9.11 9.21 9.32 9.54

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 0.6 0.9 1 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.1 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.30 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3
Inflation Rate (%) 7.65 7.03 6.4 5.3 3.5 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.18 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 7.75 8 8.25 8.25 8.5 8.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -2215.32 199 198 197 196 192
Current Account (USD Million) -6523.00 -6282 4324 -6539 4011 5800
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 2.40 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 52.10 49 49 49 50 50
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -3 -3 -2.9 -2.9 -0.5
Business Confidence (points) 51.90 53 53 52 51 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.20 50 51 51 52 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 43.60 44 44 45 45 44
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.00 0.6 0.9 1 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.80 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.1 2
GDP (USD Billion) 1076.16 1275 1275 1275 1275 1380
GDP Constant Prices (MXN Million) 18027967.00 18068914 18156113 18240553 18478666 18605364
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (MXN Million) 3324819.00 3257159 3337541 3320293 3407939 3386699
GDP per capita (USD) 8927.34 10300 10300 10300 10300 10500
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 17887.75 19800 19800 19800 19800 20000
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 4.80 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
GDP Aggregate Demand QoQ (%) 1.20 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP Aggregate Demand YoY (%) 2.90 0.7 -1.7 2 2 2
GDP From Agriculture (MXN Million) 573530.95 629323 531192 750726 587869 765740
GDP From Construction (MXN Million) 1080204.00 1080869 1110382 1098646 1107209 1120619
GDP From Manufacturing (MXN Million) 2989102.00 2899642 2957139 2983417 3063830 3043086
GDP From Mining (MXN Million) 909147.00 861833 880213 873665 931876 891138
GDP From Public Administration (MXN Million) 702444.57 756967 709056 726238 720006 740763
GDP From Services (MXN Million) 11148773.83 11620201 11381539 11846807 11427493 12083743
GDP From Transport (MXN Million) 1168731.00 1129946 1127103 1210476 1197949 1234686
GDP From Utilities (MXN Million) 251900.00 273497 295118 270992 258198 276412

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.30 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3
Employed Persons 56079123.00 57000000 575000000 575000000 575000000 59000000
Unemployed Persons 2006191.00 2400900 2200900 2200900 2200900 2200500
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 59.10 59 59 59 60 60
Labour Costs (points) 104.50 106 140 140 140 145
Productivity (points) 98.90 96 98 98 96 95
Wages (MXN/Day) 480.45 470 475 475 475 490
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 3.20 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.7 4
Minimum Wages (MXN/Day) 172.87 170 170 170 170 215
Population (Million) 126.25 126 126 127 127 127
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate (%) 96.73 96.4 96.6 96.6 97 97

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 7.65 7.03 6.4 5.3 3.5 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.18 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 121.02 122 123 125 127 130
Core Consumer Prices (points) 119.77 121 121 122 124 127
Core Inflation Rate (%) 7.28 6.57 5.79 4.56 3.75 3.5
Producer Prices (points) 118.49 119 121 123 126 128
Export Prices (points) 131.12 128 130 130 130 132
Import Prices (points) 293.23 282 285 285 285 290
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (%) 7.47 5.81 5.01 3.78 3.31 3.5
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.49 0.37 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (%) 7.88 7 5.71 5 5 4
Food Inflation (%) 12.79 8 5.5 5 5 4.5
CPI Transportation (points) 117.69 118 118 119 119 119
Producer Prices Change (%) 8.96 9.5 8.3 7.5 5.5 4
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.05 4 3 3 3 3

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Interest Rate (%) 7.75 8 8.25 8.25 8.5 8.25
Interbank Rate (%) 7.42 7.67 7.92 7.92 8.17 8.17
Money Supply M0 (MXN Million) 2463886.20 2450000 2600500 2600500 2600500 2800200
Money Supply M1 (MXN Thousand) 6434540056.00 6700700700 7200000400 7200000400 7200000400 7900200500
Money Supply M2 (MXN Thousand) 11569948173.00 11413864653 11777421244 11777421244 11777421244 12504534425
Money Supply M3 (MXN Thousand) 13791665875.00 14031845336 14668419441 14668419441 14668419441 15941567649
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 206040.00 215548 217718 219888 221333 225674
Banks Balance Sheet (MXN Million) 9566298.00 9622670 9728631 9834592 9940553 10152476
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 1.73 2.48 2.73 2.98 2.98 2.73
Central Bank Balance Sheet (MXN Thousand) 4576075641.00 5500000000 5750000000 5750000000 5750000000 65000000000

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -2215.32 199 198 197 196 192
Current Account (USD Million) -6523.00 -6282 4324 -6539 4011 5800
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) 2.40 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9
Imports (USD Million) 52220.45 50409 50702 50995 51288 51874
Exports (USD Million) 50005.13 50607 50899 51191 51482 52066
External Debt (USD Million) 447827.90 465000 460000 460000 460000 445000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 19427.50 4300 6300 6300 6300 7800
Remittances (USD Million ) 12521.39 1700 17500 17500 17500 18700
Tourism Revenues (USD Thousand) 1474183.06 1390102 2650505 1967313 1986058 2202872
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 2097.01 1314 2442 1893 2014 2443
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 119.91 120 120 120 120 120
Capital Flows (USD Million) -6.20 -15.7 -10.9 -10.9 -10.9 -12
Auto Exports (Thousand Units) 244.64 241 242 244 246 300
Non Oil Exports (USD Million) 46196.01 40400 41300 41300 41300 43000
Oil Exports (USD Million) 3809.13 2800 2900 2900 2900 3400

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 52.10 49 49 49 50 50
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -3 -3 -2.9 -2.9 -0.5
Government Budget Value (MXN Million) -45420.00 65850 -170000 120513 108807 129604
Government Spending (MXN Million) 2186382.00 2295136 2160512 2232998 2241042 2277658
Government Revenues (MXN Million) 443372.17 511752 506915 472258 472258 527567
Fiscal Expenditure (MXN Million) 563728.42 357671 386402 363451 363451 397963
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 6607.00 6000 5800 5800 5800 6100

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 16.00 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate (%) 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Business Confidence (points) 51.90 53 53 52 51 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.20 50 51 51 52 51
Industrial Production (%) 2.70 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.5 2
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.60 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 3.87 1.5 2 2.5 3.1 2.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 81.50 79 79 78 80 80
Changes in Inventories (MXN Million) 54358.00 95400 97300 97300 97300 141508
Total Vehicle Sales (Units) 43359.00 36800 55000 55000 55000 55000
Car Production (Thousand Units) 275.44 315 250 310 300 320
Car Registrations 43359.00 47000 48000 48000 48000 52000
Leading Economic Index (points) 108.70 107 107 108 108 109
Private Investment (%) 5.90 2 2 2 2 2
Mining Production (%) 0.00 0.5 2 2.5 1.1 2

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Consumer Confidence (points) 43.60 44 44 45 45 44
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.60 2.1 2.8 2 1.5 2
Consumer Spending (MXN Million) 12452892.00 12057663 12242054 12838697 12764214 13095471
Personal Savings (%) 19.80 21 21 21 21 21
Consumer Credit (MXN Million) 1359649.90 1292096 1325181 1364535 1393641 1391826
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.23
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 16.40 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.8

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2023
Construction Output (%) 1.72 0.5 1 1 2.1 1.5


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Mexico Forecast - was last updated on Wednesday, July 6, 2022.