The yield on the benchmark Japan 10-year JGB has been on the rise since March to settle around 0.25%, close to levels not seen since 2016, and staying at the upper limit of the BoJ’s tolerated trading band. Japanese yields are tracking a global rise in borrowing costs, amid concerns over slower growth and expectations central banks around the world, and specially the Fed, will need to raise rates faster to curb soaring inflationary pressures. In contrast, the Bank of Japan reiterated its ultra loose monetary policy last month and committed to defend the yield target by buying any amount of government bonds necessary on a daily basis. As a result, the yen hovers at 20-year lows and the spread between Japanese and US yields is widening. source: Ministry of Finance, Japan
Historically, the Japan Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 7.59 in June of 1984. Japan Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
The Japan Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 0.27 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 0.36 in 12 months time.