The Indian rupee briefly hit a fresh record low over 79 per US dollar before settling at 78.9, plunging almost 6% since the start of the year amid concerns of surging inflation, persistent capital outflows, and slower growth from tighter monetary policy. Elevated crude oil prices are increasing the inflation and widening the country's current account and trade deficits. India is a major importer of crude oil which purchases more than 80% of its oil needs. Further, a stronger dollar and weak domestic growth prospects have been causing persistent foreign fund outflows from the risky assets of the emerging market. Foreign investors sold Indian equities worth $13.81 billion in the quarter till June 29, the biggest outflow since at least 2008. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 40 bps in May and 50 bps in June to tame the hot domestic inflation while it also sold dollars via state-run banks. However, these efforts did little to strengthen the rupee.
Historically, the Indian Rupee reached an all time high of 79.08 in June of 2022. Indian Rupee - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2022.
The Indian Rupee is expected to trade at 78.82 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 80.63 in 12 months time.