Chicago wheat futures fell further to $11.5 per bushel in late May, the lowest in two weeks, as supply concerns momentarily eased. North American producers are expected to divert farming capacity from corn to wheat after a deal to increase trade between China and Brazil pushed down corn prices. Expectations of lower demand amid recession fears also brought down wheat futures, which hit a 14-year high last week as the war in Ukraine threatens global food security. Ukraine’s wheat production is expected to fall by 35% this marketing year to 21.5 million tons due to direct destruction or logistical problems from the war, while halted maritime trade from ports prevents a large portion of remaining crops to be exported. Also, the Indian government announced an embargo on wheat exports to guarantee domestic food security, as surging prices would have incentivized traders to sell wheat to the private export market instead of government food welfare programs.
Historically, Wheat reached an all time high of 1350 in March of 2022. Wheat - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
Wheat is expected to trade at 1206.27 USd/BU by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1326.18 in 12 months time.