Cocoa futures on ICE hovered around $2400 per tonne in late-June, as fears of reduced supplies from top growers almost offset the prospects of weak demand. Exporters estimated farmers sent a total 1.97 MMT of cocoa beans to Ivory Coast ports from Oct 1-Jun 26, down 4.9% from the same period a year ago. In neighbouring Ghana, the 2021/22 crop is reported to witness a staggering drop to about 800,000 tonnes compared to the historic volume of 1.047 million tonnes recorded during the 2020/21 crop year. However, cocoa futures are still down more than 10% from near a 2-year high of $2786 hit in February, as stocks at ICE licensed warehouses are significantly higher compared to the last season. At the same time, the latest ICCO market report indicated surging global inflation to constrain the consumption of non-essentials and luxury goods including cocoa products.
Historically, Cocoa reached an all time high of 5379 in July of 1977. Cocoa - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on July of 2022.
Cocoa is expected to trade at 2503.67 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2614.89 in 12 months time.