Canola futures fell below CAD 1,060 per tonne in mid-June, the lowest in 15 weeks amid expectations of strong supply. Favorable weather conditions and increased farming activity point to record-high canola crops in Australia, forecasted by Rabobank to be 11% above the five-year average. Sharp price decreases were also due to projections of a surge in trading activity after China, the world’s top oilseed importer, lifted its import embargo on canola seeds from top producer Canada. The move was made by Chinese authorities to curb the current shortage of domestic rapeseed, used widely to feed animals or blended into cooking oils. Prices touched a record high of CAD 1,226 in May as production in Ukraine, the largest exporter to the EU, was hampered by the war while soaring fertilizer prices also dented the outlook for Russian production. At the same time, Canada’s output for 2021 was at 13-year lows due to prolonged droughts during the year, sending stockpiles into recent lows.
Historically, Canola reached an all time high of 1226 in May of 2022. Canola - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2022.
Canola is expected to trade at 903.86 CAD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 971.10 in 12 months time.