The yield on China's 10-year government bond hovered around 2.8% as China's bond market remains under pressure amid concerns over the economic impact of lockdowns, China's zero-COVID approach, an ongoing property sector crisis, and as investors shift into other assets that offer better returns. Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy narrowed the interest differential on Chinese and US government debt yields, decreasing the appeal of buying riskier Chinese assets. In May, foreign investors reduced holdings of Chinese bonds for a fourth consecutive month and at the fastest rate in nearly five-and-a-half years, according to data from depository institutions China Central Depository & Clearing Co and the Shanghai Clearing House.
Historically, the China Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 4.80 in September of 2007. China Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2022.
The China Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 2.83 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.91 in 12 months time.