Brazil's 10-year government bond yield rallied to around 12.1% in late October, a level not seen since before the last presidential run in September of 2018. Brazilian yields are tracking a global sell-off in the bond market amid inflation and growth jitters. Also, investors remain worried about the fiscal unfoldings of both the new income transfer program (Auxilio Brasil) and the new Diesel Aid proposed by the government which will lead to changes on the spending cap rule, and weighing on the country credibility. In addition, two governments secretaries resigned heating up the market's perception that the government is losing its fiscal commitment. The 10-year government bond has already increased around 500 bps along the year.
Historically, the Brazil Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 18.44 in November of 2008. Brazil Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on October of 2021.
The Brazil Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 12.46 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 13.49 in 12 months time.