Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Currency 4.82 4.95 5.01 5.08 5.15 5.28
Government Bond 10Y (%) 12.34 12.58 12.89 13.2 13.53 14.2

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.60 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 12.2 12 12 11.9 11
Inflation Rate (%) 12.13 12.97 11.03 10.24 9.15 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.06 0.81 0.73 0.65 0.4 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 12.75 13.25 13.25 13.25 12.5 9.25
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 8148.00 2854 3653 3496 4314 3673
Current Account (USD Million) -2414.00 -4500 -5000 -3700 -8100 -5500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -0.72 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 88.83 91 91 91 93 93
Government Budget (% of GDP) -13.40 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 -6.5 -6.5
Business Confidence (points) 56.50 56 57 57 56 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.80 50 51 52 54 55
Services PMI (points) 60.60 60 59 58 55 52
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.6 0.5 1.1 1
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 30 30 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.50 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.60 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.5
GDP (USD Billion) 1444.73 1750 1750 1750 1750 1890
GDP Constant Prices (BRL Million) 305183.95 301402 308434 306099 307931 310691
Gross National Product (BRL Million) 2187879.74 2112371 2163968 2194443 2207571 2227360
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (BRL Million) 428661.34 398509 432643 429947 432519 436397
GDP per capita (USD) 8228.79 11100 11100 11200 11200 11200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 14063.98 14600 14600 14600 14600 14650
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 4.60 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.3 2
GDP From Agriculture (BRL Million) 13523.64 23909 18053 13564 13645 13768
GDP From Construction (BRL Million) 14987.87 13515 15045 15033 15123 15258
GDP From Manufacturing (BRL Million) 29239.41 29868 31672 29327 29503 29767
GDP From Mining (BRL Million) 2515.47 2487 2691 2523 2538 2561
GDP From Public Administration (BRL Million) 39006.91 38464 38797 39124 39358 39711
GDP From Services (BRL Million) 189963.16 180946 187444 190533 191673 193391
GDP From Transport (BRL Million) 9088.05 8339 8867 9115 9170 9252
GDP From Utilities (BRL Million) 6788.14 7060 6727 6808 6849 6911

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 12.2 12 12 11.9 11
Employed Persons (Million ) 95.28 94 95 95 95 95
Unemployed Persons (Million ) 11.95 12.8 12.3 12 12 12
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.30 61 62 62 62 62
Labour Costs (points) 95.24 87 85 75 75 73
Wages (BRL/Month) 2548.00 2650 2650 2790 2790 2810
Minimum Wages (BRL/Month) 1212.00 1200 1200 1200 1200 1280
Population (Million) 211.82 215 215 215 215 217
Retirement Age Women 62.00 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate (%) 55.20 54 54 55 55 55
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand ) 136.20 300 336 -242 11 -250
Productivity (points) 95.24 93 95 96 98 100
Wages In Manufacturing (BRL/Month) 2484.00 2700 2700 2750 2750 2840

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Inflation Rate (%) 12.13 12.97 11.03 10.24 9.15 4
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 1.06 0.81 0.73 0.65 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 6382.88 6518 6600 6747 6894 7017
Core Inflation Rate (%) 9.44 9 7 6 5 3
Producer Prices (points) 169.26 170 171 172 173 177
Export Prices (points) 127.55 126 124 124 119 123
Import Prices (points) 117.27 117 118 116 114 113
Food Inflation (%) 13.46 10.94 8.39 6.98 2.67 3
Producer Price Inflation MoM (Percent) 3.13 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.59 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (%) 12.20 12.8 8.36 6.72 5.72 5.5
IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (%) 1.62 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 10916.03 11186 11704 11950 12052 12428
CPI Transportation (points) 6543.17 6596 6644 6688 6714 6734
Producer Prices Change (%) 18.31 13.7 9.8 6.4 2.3 3

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Interest Rate (%) 12.75 13.25 13.25 13.25 12.5 9.25
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Money Supply M0 (BRL Million) 385897.34 403407 404334 405260 406186 408966
Money Supply M1 (BRL Million) 596583.90 607152 615614 624076 632538 657924
Money Supply M2 (BRL Million) 4230504.43 4188144 4258395 4328681 4399012 4610394
Money Supply M3 (BRL Million) 8701522.28 9042580 9225720 9408860 9592000 10141420
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 353169.00 370250 372200 375100 375100 396700
Banks Balance Sheet (BRL Million) 9029325.66 9327160 9525513 9715009 9915009 10672600
Loans to Private Sector (BRL Million) 673993.00 696598 705427 714256 723086 746631
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 7.40 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.15 5.15
Central Bank Balance Sheet (BRL Thousand) 4288302000.00 4449967243 4530818592 4611669941 4692521289 4935075335
Loan Growth (%) 0.80 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7
Interbank Rate (%) 7.07 5.5 7 8 8 8

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Balance of Trade (USD Million) 8148.00 2854 3653 3496 4314 3673
Current Account (USD Million) -2414.00 -4500 -5000 -3700 -8100 -5500
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -0.72 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -2.5
Imports (USD Million) 20754.00 19528 19629 19810 19992 20510
Exports (USD Million) 28902.00 22382 23282 23306 24306 24183
External Debt (USD Million) 678013.52 691000 691000 665000 665000 665000
Terms of Trade (points) 108.77 108 105 107 104 109
Capital Flows (USD Million) -2867.30 -1243 -975 -761 -560 -380
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 11842.56 6800 5600 4000 4900 4000
Remittances (USD Million) 344.89 320 310 320 350 320
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 129.65 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.6
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3032.48 2980 3000 3020 3020 3100
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 6353.00 5500 5500 5500 6000 6000
Weapons Sales (SIPRI TIV Million) 170.00 70 70 70 70 70

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 88.83 91 91 91 93 93
Government Budget (% of GDP) -13.40 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 -6.5 -6.5
Government Budget Value (BRL Million) -26472.00 -60000 -39000 -37000 55000 -35000
Government Spending (BRL Million) 146734.63 184605 128458 159973 148055 162373
Government Revenues (BRL Million) 164146.66 181702 190940 198888 206043 225164
Government Debt (BRL Million) 7009269.27 7180256 7315538 7449494 7586625 7999479
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 25101.00 29000 29000 29000 29000 29000

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 34.00 30 30 34 34 34
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 27.50 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate (%) 17.00 17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate (%) 39.80 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 28.80 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Business Confidence (points) 56.50 56 57 57 56 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.80 50 51 52 54 55
Services PMI (points) 60.60 60 59 58 55 52
Composite PMI (points) 58.50 55 53 53 54 52
Industrial Production (%) -2.10 0.2 1 2.9 2.9 2.9
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1
Manufacturing Production (%) -2.50 -1.6 -2.9 -0.7 3.3 2
Capacity Utilization (%) 80.90 81 81 81 81.6 81.6
Changes in Inventories (BRL Million) -84054.81 -25000 -8700 -64800 -64800 -62000
Total Vehicle Sales (Units) 108244.00 135000 145000 145600 145600 145600
Car Production (Units) 185449.00 184100 190100 177800 177800 180600
Car Registrations (Thousand) 147.00 175 170 200 200 220
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.34 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 1.9 0.8
Small Business Sentiment 56.40 52.3 55 53.3 53.3 53.3
Mining Production (%) 1.00 -2.1 -6 -3 1.4 1.5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 3000.00 3087 3088 3089 3089 3089

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.6 0.5 1.1 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.00 -1.8 -1.3 0.8 2.1 2
Consumer Spending (BRL Million) 1452207.12 1262433 1344638 1456564 1465277 1478412
Consumer Credit (BRL Million) 2758701.00 2840100 2945075 3100900 3231649 3500400
Private Sector Credit (BRL Million) 4512627.00 4200500 4300320 4370660 4370660 4651600
Bank Lending Rate (%) 48.14 48.64 48.64 48.64 47.89 45.89
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.47 1.52 1.57 1.63 1.69 1.69
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 36.60 37 37 36 35 33
Economic Optimism Index (Index Points) 75.50 77 78 78 79 80

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2023
Housing Index (points) 143.20 144 145 145 146 148


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Brazil Forecast - was last updated on Wednesday, May 25, 2022.