The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia declined by 0.06% yoy in May 2022, the same pace as April's upwardly revised figure while representing the second straight month of fall. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.58% in May from 1.09% in April. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that here had been a significant shock to consumer confidence and a major contributor to the slowdown in May. “We expect this to see the growth rate in the economy fall below trend and should be foreshadowed by negative reads for the leading index growth rate later this year," he added. However, in the interim, like the leading index suggests, the economy’s positive momentum will carry through the June and September quarters as consumer spending continues to benefit from the post-COVID reopening and support from high household savings. source: Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged 0 percent from 1960 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 0.76 percent in November of 2020 and a record low of -1.74 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2022.

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.

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Australia Leading Economic Index



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2022-05-18 01:30 AM Apr -0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
2022-06-22 01:30 AM May -0.06% -0.06% -0.1%
2022-07-20 12:30 AM Jun -0.06%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Leading Economic Index -0.06 -0.06 percent May 2022

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.06 -0.06 0.76 -1.74 1960 - 2022 percent Monthly
1996=100

News Stream
Australia Leading Index Down for 2nd Straight Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia declined by 0.06% yoy in May 2022, the same pace as April's upwardly revised figure while representing the second consecutive month of fall. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.58% in May from 1.09% in April. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that here had been a significant shock to consumer confidence and a major contributor to the slowdown in May. “We expect this to see the growth rate in the economy fall below trend and should be foreshadowed by negative reads for the leading index growth rate later this year," he added. However, in the interim, like the leading index suggests, the economy’s positive momentum will carry through the June and September quarters as consumer spending continues to benefit from the post-COVID reopening and support from high household savings.
2022-06-22
Australia Leading Index Down Slightly
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia declined by 0.2% yoy in April 2022, the first drop since last September, after a 0.3% increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.88 percent in April from 1.69 percent in March. Westpac expects that the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide to raise the cash rate by a further 40 basis points to 0.75 percent during its meeting on June 7th. "The board will also be aware of the efforts of other central banks, including the US Fed, to quickly move interest rate settings back to neutral, said chief economist Bill Evans. "It is also much more prudent to front load the increases where at a stage in the cycle when rates are clearly below what might be considered a ‘neutral’ level."
2022-05-18
Australia Leading Index Rises for 3rd Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.3% yoy in March 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in the prior month and rising for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, increased by 1.71% in March, the most since May 2021, after gaining 1.02% in February, suggesting the economy will grow comfortably above the long-term growth rate of 2.8 percent. "It is very welcome to see these encouraging signals from the leading index in the early months of 2022," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said. "They are consistent with our upbeat view of the growth momentum in the economy for most of 2022."
2022-04-20