The yield on the Australian government 10-year bond fell to 3.71%, down by more than 50 basis points since hitting an over 8-year high of 4.245% on June 15th, as mounting global recession concerns more than offset the higher-than-expected rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier in the month. Australia’s services PMI likely eased to the lowest level above the 50-threshold so far this year, according to preliminary estimates, in line with downbeat PMI readings in the US and Europe, which reinforced concerns about growth. Looking ahead, investors see 50 bps rate hikes at each of the RBA’s meetings through the rest of 2022, which would take rates to 3.75% from the current 0.85%, but a cloudy economic outlook could soften slow the pace of tightening. For the week, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield is set to slump by 41 bps, while the yield on the 3-year benchmark is headed for its worst weekly performance since August 2011.
Historically, the Australia Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 16.50 in August of 1982. Australia Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2022.
The Australia Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 4.27 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.72 in 12 months time.