Stock futures contracts tied to the three major indices were up roughly 0.5% on Monday, putting Wall Street on track to extend gains as investors continue to assess the outlook for monetary policy amid signs of slowing growth and easing commodity prices. Last week, several economic indicators, including global PMIs and consumer confidence, pointed to slower economic activity, sparking speculation that central banks may take their foot off the pedal. A slump in commodity prices is adding to the bullish sentiment, with falling grains, metals, and energy prices easing worries of prolonged inflation. Last week, the Dow bounced 5.4%, the S&P 500 rallied 6.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 7.5%.

WTI crude futures fluctuated around $107 per barrel on Monday, pressured by recession fears while traders monitor the G7 Summit in Germany ahead of talks between the US and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Leaders of the Group of Seven discussed a price cap mechanism on Russian oil, which would work by imposing restrictions on insurance and shipping, allowing only the transportation of Russian crude and petroleum products sold below an agreed threshold. Still, prospect of more supply tightness loomed over the market, with the G7 leaders finding ways to cut Russia’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are set to restart in the coming days, with the EU acting as a mediator. Elsewhere, investors await official government figures on US weekly inventories after technical problems delayed the release originally set for last week.

Profits earned by China's industrial firms increased only by 1% yoy to CNY 34.41 trillion in January-May 2022, slowing from a 3.5% rise in the prior period, as high raw material prices and supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 curbs continued to squeeze margins and disrupted factory activity. Profits at state-owned industrial firms rose 9.8%; while those in the private sector fell 2.2%. Among the 41 industries surveyed, 16 saw profit rises while 24 dropped. Profits increased in the coal mining and washing industry (175%), oil and natural gas (135%), non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (26.6%), electrical machinery and equipment (14.6%), chemicals (13.8%) while fell in ferrous metal smelting and rolling (-64.2%), automobile (-37.5%), electricity (-26.9%), petroleum, coal and other fuel (-29.6%), and general equipment manufacturing (-21.3%). Compared to May last year, corporate profits fell 6.5%, after a 8.5 percent decline in April and marking the second straight month of fall.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region advanced on Monday, as an easing in covid-19 restrictions in China raised prospects the economy will recover from the pandemic hit. The Hang Seng led the gains across its regional peers to finish 2.4% higher at 22230, the strongest close since April 4th. The Tech index surged 4.7% and the China Enterprises index 2.5%. Shares of Haidilao jumped .8.8% after Shanghai said it will resume dine-in service starting Wednesday; stocks of Macau casino concessionaire Sands China rose 8%, JD.com 5.8% after Prosus and Naspers announced sale of a stake in the company, and Alibaba 3.8%. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.9% higher at 3379, the Nikkei 225 added 1.4% to 26871, the ASX 200 1.9% to 6706 and the Kospi 1.5% at 2402.

The Turkish lira strengthened to 16.7 per USD, the highest in nearly three weeks after the Turkish banking regulator announced that banks would be banned from extending new local-currency loans if foreign exchange on their books is worth more than TRY 15 million and exceeds 10% of their total assets or annual revenues. The Lira remains the worst performer in emerging markets this year, as the country’s interest rates are the world’s most negative once inflation is taken into account. The Turkish Central Bank left its benchmark lending rate steady at 14% despite President Tayyip Erdogan’s pledge to continue slashing borrowing costs, while annual inflation hit a 20-year high of 73.5% in May. Harsh stabilization measures by the central bank and efforts to balance reserve levels have done little to offset negative borrowing costs.

The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ extended its decline to the 8.7% mark, the lowest in over 6 months, as lower consumer prices and a strong ruble ramped up bets of looser policy by the CBR, while investors digested Russia’s default on its sovereign debt. Sanctions blocked Russia from transacting international payments to foreign debt holders through Western institutions, triggering a default on the $100 million in Eurobond coupons that were due May 27. While its immediate effect on OFZ instruments is limited, the default should hamper Russia’s ratings and access to credit in the future. Meanwhile, weekly price data pointed to a deflated CPI for the third consecutive week amid slowed consumer demand, while a plunge in imports and higher commodity prices lifted the ruble to 7-year highs despite the relaxed capital controls by the central bank. In its last meeting, the CBR cut its key rate by 150bps to bring it back to the pre-invasion level of 9.5%.