U.S. Retail Sales - Forecast

Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.41 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.33 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


Forecast Data Chart
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United States Consumer Last Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101 97 93 95 96 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.1 0.3 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.6 5.2 4 4.2 6.49 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.3 0.42 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.4
Consumer Spending 12841 12900 13049 13041 13175 13590
Disposable Personal Income 15566 15731 15776 15784 15782 15745
Personal Spending 0.4 0.36 0.7 0.34 0.34 0.5
Personal Income 0.3 0.33 0.4 0.33 0.33 0.33
Personal Savings 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.81 5.2
Consumer Credit 16.6 15.52 15.05 15.05 15.04 15.04
Private Sector Credit 9383 9406 9451 9495 9536 9843
Bank Lending Rate 5 5.25 5.5 5.5 5.75 6
Economic Optimism Index 55.7 52.9 52.3 52 51.3 50
Redbook Index 5.4 5.73 5.79 5.79 5.79 5.79
Chain Store Sales 3782 4641 4563 4586 4581 4582
Gasoline Prices 0.75 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.64 0.51
Households Debt To Gdp 78.7 78.68 81.2 78.76 78.79 82.6
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113 113 113 113 113 113
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.2 82.73 82.74 82.74 82.74 82.74
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.7 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66