United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI - Forecast

Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to be 54.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States to stand at 54.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 52.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.


Forecast Data Chart
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United States Business Last Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.3 55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.6 53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Services PMI 52.9 52.9 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.5 54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Composite Pmi 53.4 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 4.9 3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.81 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.08 78.2 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -1.7 0.34 -0.3 0.33 0.33 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1 0.44 0.38 0.33 0.32 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.2 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.2 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27
New Orders 497754 499257 498692 498551 498516 498502
Factory Orders -0.8 0.3 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.2
Business Inventories 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.31 0.2
Changes in Inventories -26.93 19.5 69 -23.3 -6.55 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 22245 23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 2013 2042 2064 2079 2094 2225
NFIB Business Optimism Index 109 102 103 107 105 97
Ism New York Index 76.5 56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.9 21 21 25 10.17 16
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 19 18 21 19 17 10
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 24 20 5 10 8.49 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.19 0.05
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 30.9 31.4 27.9 20.1 32 12
Chicago Pmi 63.6 59 59.1 61 58 56
Car Production 2.45 2.98 2.97 3.1 3.2 3.54
Car Registrations 446 455 476 481 474 481
Total Vehicle Sales 16.72 16.88 19.4 16.89 16.88 18.7
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.06 -0.58 -2 0.06 0.06 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change 86 67.12 69.77 69.88 69.89 69.89
Gasoline Stocks Change -1719 -500 1000 17.19 17.19 500
Leading Economic Index 124 124 125 126 126 132
Internet Speed 18748 22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703 129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
API Crude Oil Stock Change 1.25 -0.29 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.3
Crude Oil Rigs 866 859 855 854 854 853
Corruption Index 75 74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16 17 16 16 16 16
Competitiveness Index 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2 3 3 2 2 3
Ease of Doing Business 6 7 6 7 7 6
Steel Production 7275 7283 6870 7330 7280 7150
Mining Production 14.1 12.5 11 9 11 4