United States Inflation Expectations Tradingeconomics.com United States Inflation Expectations Forecast

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United States Inflation Expectations Tradingeconomics.com United States Inflation Expectations Forecast - was last updated on Tuesday, June 19, 2018.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.3 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.80 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2 2.25 2.5 2.5 3 percent
Balance of Trade -46199.00 83050 82600 -55000 -52000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 94.97
92.94 93.86 94.78 95.7 97
Stock Market 24700.21
points
22844 22146 21472 20817 18392
Government Bond 10Y 2.90
percent
2.92 3.08 3.25 3.43 4.24
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20
percent
2.1 2.6 2.8 2.3 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent
2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6
GDP 18624.48
USD Billion
19800 19800 19800 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 17379.73
USD Billion
17474 17593 17753 17814 18725
Gross National Product 17555.69
USD Billion
17645 17787 17941 17995 18923
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3020.66
USD Billion
2974 2989 3054 3096 3221
GDP per capita 52194.90
USD
53500 53500 53500 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50
USD
53220 53220 53220 53900 54500
GDP From Agriculture 151.70
USD Billion
157 156 156 155 164
GDP From Construction 660.50
USD Billion
666 663 678 677 715
GDP From Manufacturing 1983.60
USD Billion
1999 2007 2037 2033 2149
GDP From Mining 387.40
USD Billion
379 388 398 397 420
GDP From Public Administration 2086.70
USD Billion
2138 2139 2143 2139 2260
GDP From Services 11731.40
USD Billion
11844 11958 12048 12025 12708
GDP From Transport 478.20
USD Billion
483 484 491 490 518
GDP From Utilities 283.40
USD Billion
289 284 291 290 307
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 223.00
Thousand
178 195 165 193 170
Government Payrolls 5.00
Thousand
1 5 12 1 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 218.00
Thousand
168 190 160 188 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 18.00
Thousand
19 20.42 10 20.64 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 218.00
Thousand
221 221 221 221 221
Continuing Jobless Claims 1697.00
Thousand
1673 1608 1579 1567 1557
ADP Employment Change 178.00
Thousand
190 193 160 175 150
Employed Persons 155474.00
Thousand
155600 156041 156431 156777 154000
Unemployed Persons 6065.00
Thousand
6013 5756 5541 5367 4702
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30
percent
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.21
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours
34.5 34.4 34.4 34.52 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent
62.7 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.74
percent
1.05 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.70
percent
8.6 8.4 8.3 8.2 7.9
Productivity 109.05
Index Points
109 110 110 110 113
Labour Costs 110.16
Index Points
110 111 111 111 114
Job Vacancies 7195.00
Thousand
6731 6594 6602 6644 6633
Job Offers 6698.00
Thousand
6820 6878 6882 6882 6879
Challenger Job Cuts 31517.00
Persons
30600 39394 62300 36763 63500
Wages 22.59
USD/Hour
22.77 23.35 23.8 24.11 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.39
USD/Hour
21.74 21.87 22.06 22.38 24.61
Wage Growth 4.56
percent
4.61 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour
7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80
percent
0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.71
Population 325.72
Million
328 327 328 328 334
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month
2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month
4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.40
percent
60.4 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.7
Full Time Employment 128657.00
Thousand
128820 129490 130025 130479 132649
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month
2300 2300 2300 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month
1478 1485 1492 1488 1469
Part Time Employment 26883.00
Thousand
27020 27148 27134 27133 27134
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.1 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 250.54
Index Points
251 254 254 256 267
Core Consumer Prices 256.89
Index Points
257 258 260 262 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.1 2 2.1 2.33 2.2
GDP Deflator 114.83
Index Points
115 115 116 116 124
Producer Prices 116.10
Index Points
116 117 118 119 125
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
2.9 3 2.8 2.8 3.2
Export Prices 127.70
Index Points
128 129 129 129 119
Import Prices 128.00
Index Points
128 128 128 128 128
Food Inflation 1.20
percent
1.8 2 2.2 2.2 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 114.78
Index Points
115 116 116 117 120
Core Producer Prices 114.90
Index Points
115 116 116 117 123
CPI Housing Utilities 257.91
Index Points
258 260 260 263 274
CPI Transportation 214.13
Index Points
207 211 208 213 219
Pce Price Index 114.51
Index Points
115 115 117 116 121
Inflation Expectations 2.98
percent
2.97 2.89 2.89 2.88 2.88
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2 2.25 2.5 2.5 3
Interbank Rate 2.32
percent
2.33 2.58 2.83 2.83 3.33
Money Supply M0 3674797.00
USD Million
3653897 3620475 3612695 3610632 3610007
Money Supply M1 3652.00
USD Billion
3673 3711 3753 3795 4217
Money Supply M2 14024.70
USD Billion
14081 14244 14403 14562 16271
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124540.00
USD Million
123964 123708 123682 123681 123683
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4278593.00
USD Million
4363851 4360790 4358306 4352601 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16716100.00
USD Million
16730349 16784650 16798776 16802389 16803638
Loans to Private Sector 2165.21
USD Billion
2170 2193 2211 2226 2303
Private Debt to GDP 200.20
percent
198 198 198 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment -4776.00
USD Million
675 2129 2132 2156 2155
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -46199.00
USD Million
83050 82600 -55000 -52000 -53000
Exports 211245.00
USD Million
205000 206000 205000 207000 206000
Imports 257444.00
USD Million
253000 257000 260000 259000 259000
Current Account -128158.00
USD Million
-125400 -131000 -132000 -129000 -145000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt -7845809.00
USD Million
-7829630 -7891934 -7879571 -7878778 -7873842
Terms of Trade 98.39
Index Points
99.7 100 101 101 92.99
Capital Flows 138700.00
USD Million
-19534 6954 21927 27532 28900
Foreign Direct Investment 46429.00
USD Million
44059 43609 43811 43443 41095
Net Long Term Tic Flows 93900.00
USD Million
46523 51136 51085 50828 50819
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes
8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10474.00
BBL/D/1K
10000 9806 9980 9809 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
5.2 5.2 5.2 5.62 5.4
Tourism Revenues 20760.00
USD Million
20849 20784 20835 20797 20813
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
5647000 5459700 5295900 5155300 4474900
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million
11546 12219 12892 12672 10321
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent
108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-3.9 -3.9 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -146796.00
USD Million
-173947 -95886 -69227 -67721 -67646
Government Spending 2929.79
USD Billion
2971 2972 3000 3003 3165
Government Revenues 217075.00
USD Million
192883 257467 279666 282513 282986
Government Debt 21145215.00
USD Million
21235040 21491578 21740231 21986563 24537761
Fiscal Expenditure 363871.00
USD Million
366831 353353 350508 350233 350632
Asylum Applications 12069.00
Persons
11478 11470 11436 11419 11416
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million
703459 600434 752325 602027 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent
37.67 37.71 37.75 37.74 37.64
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 58.70
Index Points
57 55 54 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 56.40
55.3 53.8 53 52.1 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.60
56 54 54.6 54 52
Services PMI 56.80
Index Points
54 53.6 53.4 53.1 54.8
Composite Pmi 56.60
Index Points
54 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.1
Industrial Production 3.50
percent
3.9 3.5 3 2.9 1.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.10
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.70
percent
3 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.9
Capacity Utilization 77.90
percent
78.2 78.6 78.3 78.5 78
Durable Goods Orders -1.70
percent
0.74 0.41 -0.3 0.33 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.90
percent
1.24 0.6 0.39 0.34 0.33
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.90
percent
0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.40
percent
0.36 0.3 0.27 0.27 0.26
Factory Orders -0.80
percent
0.57 0.33 0.1 0.28 0.2
New Orders 494448.00
USD Million
500560 499170 498805 498716 498685
Business Inventories 0.30
percent
0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.2
Changes in Inventories 20.18
USD Billion
7.5 19.5 69 20.66 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.10
percent
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2
Bankruptcies 23106.00
Companies
24211 25056 26033 27097 37893
Corporate Profits 1872.00
USD Billion
1867 1890 1902 1914 2043
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.80
Index Points
105 102 103 107 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 34.40
Index Points
20 21 21 25 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 16.00
Index Points
14 20 5 10 3
Ism New York Index 56.40
percent
59.4 56.8 55 56 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 25.00
Index Points
20 18 21 19 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 26.80
Index Points
33.6 31.4 27.9 20.1 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.34
0.4 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.05
Chicago Pmi 62.70
Index Points
58.6 59 59.1 61 56
Total Vehicle Sales 16.91
Million
18 17.07 19.4 17.07 18.7
Car Production 2.70
Million Units
3.89 2.87 3.97 2.91 4.04
Car Registrations 522.69
Thousand
560 523 495 504 504
Crude Oil Stocks Change -4.14
BBL/1Million
0.05 0.08 -2 0.08 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -2271.00
Thousand Barrels
201 -500 1000 25.1 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 96.00
Billion cf
101 104 104 104 104
Leading Economic Index 122.91
Index Points
110 102 96.89 93.48 87.53
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps
21703 21935 22058 22112 20025
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP
129416277 129348765 129285167 129225110 128764224
Crude Oil Rigs 863.00
869 887 892 894 895
API Crude Oil Stock Change -3.02
BBL/1Million
-0.7 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.3
Steel Production 6930.00
Thousand Tonnes
7163 6977 6870 7146 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points
5.85 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
3 2 3 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points
74 74 74 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
16 17 16 17 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
6 6 6 6 6
Mining Production 12.60
percent
12.4 12.5 11 9 4
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.30
Index Points
99.3 97 93 95 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.80
percent
0.26 0.36 0.32 0.32 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.90
percent
3.7 5.2 4 4.2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.90
percent
0.4 0.38 0.34 0.33 0.4
Consumer Spending 12065.90
USD Billion
12161 12214 12360 12368 13037
Disposable Personal Income 14860.81
USD Billion
14929 15035 15142 15249 16419
Personal Spending 0.60
percent
0.37 0.34 0.7 0.33 0.5
Personal Income 0.30
percent
0.31 0.31 0.4 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 2.80
percent
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2
Consumer Credit 9.30
USD Billion
13.99 14.49 14.53 14.56 14.56
Private Sector Credit 9256.98
USD Billion
9260 9273 9289 9304 9415
Bank Lending Rate 4.75
percent
4.75 5 5.25 5.25 5.75
Economic Optimism Index 53.90
53 52.9 52.3 52 50
Redbook Index 4.70
percent
4.43 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42
Chain Store Sales 4115.00
USD Million
4986 4678 4737 4725 4727
Gasoline Prices 0.78
USD/Liter
0.78 0.74 0.69 0.65 0.45
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70
percent of GDP
80.3 78.68 81.2 78.76 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 1301.00
Thousand
1300 1280 1230 1320 1315
Housing Starts 1350.00
Thousand
1290 1270 1330 1300 1280
New Home Sales 662.00
Thousand
590 580 600 615 590
Pending Home Sales -2.10
percent
-1.5 -0.4 0.1 1.1 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5460.00
Thousand
5390 5500 5600 5500 5000
Construction Spending 1.80
percent
0.8 0.3 1 0.59 0.4
Housing Index 0.10
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 68.00
68 70 68 66 53
Mortgage Rate 4.83
percent
4.82 4.82 4.82 4.82 6.5
Mortgage Applications -1.50
percent
0.33 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41
Case Shiller Home Price Index 208.62
Index Points
210 212 213 215 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.20
percent
64.15 64.18 64.19 64.19 64.27
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 12.40
percent
12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.20
percent
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.20
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius
13.55 19.24 3.01 -1.15 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm
58.37 63.34 48.58 46.48 55.37