United States Inflation Expectations Tradingeconomics.com United States Inflation Expectations Forecast

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United States Inflation Expectations Tradingeconomics.com United States Inflation Expectations Forecast - was last updated on Thursday, February 22, 2018.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.1 4.2 4 4 4.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 2 2 2.25 3 percent
Balance of Trade -53118.00 -50000 -49300 -50500 -53000 -59000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Stock Market 24794.21
points
25526 25100 24679 24269 21211
Currency 90.12
92.94 93.86 94.78 95.7 98
Government Bond 10Y 2.94
percent
3 3.17 3.35 3.54 4.41
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60
percent
2.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50
percent
2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6
GDP 18624.48
USD Billion
19800 19800 19800 19800 20700
GDP Constant Prices 17272.47
USD Billion
17350 17490 17600 17720 18500
Gross National Product 17352.84
USD Billion
17539 17613 17674 17724 18300
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2971.88
USD Billion
2991 3003 3009 3008 3100
GDP per capita 52194.90
USD
53500 53500 53500 53500 54800
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50
USD
53220 53220 53220 53220 54500
GDP From Agriculture 152.30
USD Billion
144 143 141 140 137
GDP From Construction 647.30
USD Billion
650 650 651 652 760
GDP From Manufacturing 1958.20
USD Billion
1931 1914 1899 1887 2240
GDP From Mining 378.20
USD Billion
370 365 362 225 252
GDP From Public Administration 2086.40
USD Billion
2086 2086 2084 2083 2061
GDP From Services 11666.10
USD Billion
11764 11808 11834 14600 15800
GDP From Transport 471.90
USD Billion
464 460 456 452 437
GDP From Utilities 277.50
USD Billion
271 269 268 281 302
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
4.1 4.2 4 4 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 200.00
Thousand
190 170 145 165 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 196.00
Thousand
175 165 155 147 115
Government Payrolls 4.00
Thousand
12.63 13.55 13.45 12 11
Manufacturing Payrolls 15.00
Thousand
9.57 11.62 -5.81 10 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 230.00
Thousand
236 247 258 268 335
Continuing Jobless Claims 1942.00
Thousand
1955 1985 2014 2041 2314
ADP Employment Change 234.00
Thousand
220 197 178 160 150
Unemployed Persons 6684.00
Thousand
6756 6878 6980 7073 7831
Employed Persons 154430.00
Thousand
154619 154845 154931 154956 154000
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30
percent
0.3 0.23 0.21 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours 34.30
Hours
34.38 34.37 34.36 34.36 34.34
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70
percent
62.7 62.71 62.72 62.74 62.86
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.88
percent
1.05 1.05 0.8 0.9 1.1
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.20
percent
9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 10.5
Productivity 108.77
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
Labour Costs 108.93
Index Points
109 109 109 109 108
Job Vacancies 5359.00
Thousand
5111 4985 4891 4809 4247
Job Offers 5811.00
Thousand
5728 5678 5631 5582 5082
Challenger Job Cuts 44653.00
Persons
44816 51229 55334 62300 63500
Wages 22.34
USD/Hour
22.49 22.87 23.35 23.8 26.5
Wage Growth 4.47
percent
4.55 4.65 4.74 4.81 5.24
Wages in Manufacturing 21.37
USD/Hour
21.44 21.76 21.87 22.06 25.61
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour
7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75
Employment Cost Index 0.60
percent
0.7 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.73
Population 324.30
Million
328 328 328 328 332
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month
2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month
4500 4500 4500 4500 4600
Employment Rate 60.10
percent
60.1 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.3
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month
2300 2300 2300 2300 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month
1472 1478 1485 1492 1470
Part Time Employment 27271.00
Thousand
27245 27241 27232 27224 27126
Full Time Employment 127016.00
Thousand
127084 127177 127188 127168 126697
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 249.25
Index Points
251 252 253 247 268
Core Consumer Prices 255.29
Index Points
257 258 260 262 273
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
1.9 2 2 2.1 2.2
GDP Deflator 114.28
Index Points
115 115 116 123 134
Producer Prices 114.90
Index Points
115 116 118 120 130
Producer Prices Change 2.70
percent
2.4 2.5 2.79 2.6 2.2
Export Prices 125.70
Index Points
126 127 127 127 119
Import Prices 126.70
Index Points
128 128 127 127 122
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
1.9 2.1 2 2.2 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 113.92
Index Points
114 115 115 116 120
CPI Housing Utilities 254.86
Index Points
256 257 257 257 257
CPI Transportation 205.34
Index Points
205 206 206 208 204
Pce Price Index 113.64
Index Points
114 114 114 117 121
Inflation Expectations 2.71
percent
2.72 2.77 2.79 2.81 2.86
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.75 2 2 2.25 3
Interbank Rate 1.90
percent
1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.5
Money Supply M0 3824794.00
USD Million
3831035 3817887 3809948 3803290 3728205
Money Supply M1 3648.00
USD Billion
3665 3692 3707 3715 3704
Money Supply M2 13838.30
USD Billion
13881 13921 13953 13978 13985
Foreign Exchange Reserves 123313.00
USD Million
122741 122153 121564 120980 114555
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4388002.00
USD Million
4365624 4352459 4341167 4329983 4200489
Banks Balance Sheet 16702247.00
USD Million
16715848 16714566 16713358 16712151 16697579
Loans to Private Sector 2126.94
USD Billion
2128 2129 2129 2127 2060
Private Debt to GDP 199.60
percent
199 199 199 199 195
Foreign Bond Investment -15960.00
USD Million
-5826 -293 3296 5601 10328
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -53118.00
USD Million
-50000 -49300 -50500 -53000 -59000
Exports 203351.00
USD Million
195000 196000 197000 197000 200000
Imports 256469.00
USD Million
245000 246000 247000 250000 259000
Current Account -100600.00
USD Million
-118200 -118000 -96352 -120000 -145000
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt -7768745.00
USD Million
-7588393 -7474096 -7381880 -7290119 -6645907
Terms of Trade 99.85
Index Points
99.74 100 100 100 102
Capital Flows -119272.00
USD Million
-46208 -10399 6562 14751 22427
Foreign Direct Investment 42627.00
USD Million
40674 41610 41241 40694 39153
Net Long Term Tic Flows 27318.00
USD Million
36411 32486 30102 28576 24756
Gold Reserves 8133.46
Tonnes
8134 8134 8134 8135 8135
Crude Oil Production 10038.00
BBL/D/1K
9998 9982 9965 9680 9150
Tourism Revenues 20379.00
USD Million
20329 20285 20242 20199 19863
Tourist Arrivals 5721658.00
5221800 5078800 4958000 4855700 4441900
Terrorism Index 5.43
5.31 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.57
Weapons Sales 9894.00
USD Million
9732 9623 9515 9406 9994
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent
108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -5 -6
Government Budget Value 49236.00
USD Million
-41830 -52460 -46441 -38949 -27814
Government Spending 2921.13
USD Billion
2925 2930 2937 2940 2941
Government Revenues 361038.00
USD Million
288247 258405 255571 257347 216363
Government Debt 20493730.00
USD Million
20493579 20483799 20474066 20464905 20363039
Fiscal Expenditure 311802.00
USD Million
338707 335102 332827 331445 323557
Asylum Applications 12026.00
Persons
11892 11836 11780 11726 11305
Military Expenditure 606232.60
USD Million
702472 703459 592153 752325 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00
percent
35.35 33.95 32.54 31.14 35
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Services PMI 55.90
Index Points
55 54 53.6 53.4 54.8
Business Confidence 59.10
Index Points
54 54.3 52 54 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.90
54.5 52.9 53.8 53 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.90
55.2 56 54 54.6 54.91
Composite Pmi 55.90
Index Points
55 54 53.8 53.3 55.1
Industrial Production 3.70
percent
2.4 1.9 1.6 2 1.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.10
percent
0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.80
percent
1.7 1.7 2 2.1 1.9
Capacity Utilization 77.50
percent
76.4 76.6 77.91 76 78
Durable Goods Orders 2.90
percent
0.8 0.44 0.35 -0.3 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 2.20
percent
0.74 0.43 0.35 0.33 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.60
percent
0.34 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.70
percent
0.42 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.27
New Orders 498229.00
USD Million
500480 499544 498005 496348 477632
Factory Orders 1.70
percent
0.65 0.38 0.31 0.1 0.2
Business Inventories 0.40
percent
0.34 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories 9.17
USD Billion
14 7.5 19.5 69 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.40
percent
-0.1 0.2 0.36 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies 23157.00
Companies
23577 24291 25207 26252 38432
Corporate Profits 1738.20
USD Billion
1727 1728 1724 1724 1704
NFIB Business Optimism Index 106.90
Index Points
104 100 102 99 97
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 13.10
Index Points
19 12 11 10 5
Ism New York Index 72.50
percent
61.89 59.34 57.93 57.05 55.77
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 33.40
Index Points
15 14.5 21.35 7 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27
0.2 0.2 0 0.4 0.05
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 25.80
Index Points
15 10 13 11 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14.00
Index Points
15 11 10 5 3
Chicago Pmi 65.70
Index Points
53 53.5 59.13 50 54.49
Total Vehicle Sales 17.12
Million
18 18 17.1 19.4 18.7
Car Production 2.89
Million Units
3.89 3.89 3.19 3.97 4.04
Car Registrations 475.17
Thousand
562 609 640 659 682
Crude Oil Stocks Change 1.84
BBL/1Million
0.09 0.05 0.05 1.1 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change -194.00
Billion cf
-101 -39.24 -16.59 -8.26 -3.42
Gasoline Stocks Change 3599.00
Thousand Barrels
200 201 -500 1000 500
Leading Economic Index 184.16
Index Points
185 186 187 187 190
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps
21359 21703 21935 22058 21110
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP
129483682 129416277 129348765 129285167 128896096
Crude Oil Rigs 798.00
820 814 804 793 692
API Crude Oil Stock Change -0.91
BBL/1Million
0.32 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25
Steel Production 6760.00
Thousand Tonnes
6866 7046 7170 6870 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points
5.73 5.73 5.77 5.73 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
3 3 2 3 3
Corruption Index 74.00
Points
75.5 75.5 74 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18.00
16 16 18 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
6 6 6 6 6
Mining Production 8.80
percent
7 6.4 4.21 3 1
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.30
percent
0.36 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.4
Consumer Confidence 99.90
Index Points
94 94.5 93 93.1 86.7
Retail Sales YoY 3.60
percent
2.9 2.7 3.1 3 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.00
percent
0.39 0.4 0.35 0.35 0.4
Consumer Spending 12028.06
USD Billion
12110 12187 12267 12339 12924
Disposable Personal Income 14589.00
USD Billion
14613 14616 14614 14613 14588
Personal Spending 0.40
percent
0.48 0.47 0.46 0.7 0.5
Personal Income 0.40
percent
0.43 0.44 0.44 0.4 0.44
Personal Savings 2.40
percent
2.93 2.98 3.11 3.24 4.41
Private Sector Credit 9119.50
USD Billion
8988 8898 8848 8820 8740
Consumer Credit 18.50
USD Billion
14.41 10.72 9.21 8.47 7.71
Bank Lending Rate 4.50
percent
4.15 4.25 4.71 4.75 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 56.70
55.48 54.02 53.02 52.26 49.94
Redbook Index 3.70
percent
3.14 2.79 2.59 2.47 2.32
Chain Store Sales 8800.00
USD Million
6547 6478 6538 6530 6519
Gasoline Prices 0.68
USD/Liter
0.65 0.65 0.65 0.63 0.58
Households Debt To Gdp 78.20
percent of GDP
80.2 80.3 76.24 81.2 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Building Permits 1396.00
Thousand
1388 1387 1385 1130 1315
Housing Starts 1326.00
Thousand
1100 1090 1170 1130 1280
New Home Sales 625.00
Thousand
610 560 639 580 590
Pending Home Sales 0.50
percent
-0.6 0.5 0.89 -1.9 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5380.00
Thousand
5320 5290 5200 5100 5000
Construction Spending 0.70
percent
1.5 0.8 0.3 1 0.4
Housing Index 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 72.00
60 61 59 55 53
Mortgage Rate 4.64
percent
4.67 4.72 4.76 4.8 6.5
Mortgage Applications -6.60
percent
0.36 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42
Case Shiller Home Price Index 204.21
Index Points
198 199 205 202 211
Home Ownership Rate 64.20
percent
64.16 64.14 64.17 64.18 64.31
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 12.40
percent
21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.20
percent
6.18 6.18 6.18 6.18 7.13
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.20
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 75.78
mm
46.38 58.37 63.34 48.58 55.37
Temperature -1.42
celsius
-1.14 13.55 19.24 3.01 8.8