United States Durable Goods Orders - Forecast

Durable Goods Orders in the United States is expected to be 0.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Durable Goods Orders in the United States to stand at -0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Durable Goods Orders is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


United States Durable Goods Orders
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United States Business Last Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 59.1 54 54.3 52 54 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.5 54.5 52.9 53.8 53 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.9 55.2 56 54 54.6 54.91
Services PMI 53.3 53.9 53 53.6 53.4 54.8
Composite Pmi 53.8 52.4 52.7 55 53.1 55.1
Industrial Production 3.7 2.4 1.9 1.6 2 1.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.8 1.7 1.7 2 2.1 1.9
Capacity Utilization 77.5 76.4 76.6 77.91 76 78
Durable Goods Orders 2.9 0.8 0.44 0.35 -0.3 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 2.2 0.74 0.43 0.35 0.33 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.6 0.34 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.7 0.42 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.27
New Orders 498229 500480 499544 498005 496348 477632
Factory Orders 1.7 0.65 0.38 0.31 0.1 0.2
Business Inventories 0.4 0.34 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories 9.17 14 7.5 19.5 69 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.36 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies 23157 23577 24291 25207 26252 38432
Corporate Profits 1738 1727 1728 1724 1724 1704
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107 104 100 102 99 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 25.8 15 10 13 11 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 15 11 10 5 3
Ism New York Index 72.5 61.89 59.34 57.93 57.05 55.77
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 13.1 19 12 11 10 5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 33.4 15 14.5 21.35 7 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27 0.2 0.2 0 0.4 0.05
Chicago Pmi 65.7 53 53.5 59.13 50 54.49
Total Vehicle Sales 17.12 18 18 17.1 19.4 18.7
Car Production 2.89 3.89 3.89 3.19 3.97 4.04
Car Registrations 475 562 609 640 659 682
Crude Oil Stocks Change 1.84 0.09 0.05 0.05 1.1 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change -194 -101 -39.24 -16.59 -8.26 -3.42
Gasoline Stocks Change 3599 200 201 -500 1000 500
Leading Economic Index 184 185 186 187 187 190
Internet Speed 18748 21359 21703 21935 22058 21110
IP Addresses 128949703 129483682 129416277 129348765 129285167 128896096
Crude Oil Rigs 798 820 814 804 793 692
API Crude Oil Stock Change 3.95 0.55 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27
Competitiveness Index 5.85 5.73 5.73 5.77 5.73 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2 3 3 2 3 3
Corruption Index 74 75.5 75.5 74 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18 16 16 18 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6 6 6 6 6 6
Steel Production 6760 6866 7046 7170 6870 7150
Mining Production 8.8 7 6.4 4.21 3 1