United States Durable Goods Orders  Forecast 2016-2020

Durable Goods Orders in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Durable Goods Orders in the United States to stand at 0.32 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Durable Goods Orders is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Durable Goods Orders
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Forecast Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020 Unit
Durable Goods Orders 6.5 0.3 -1.2 0.33 0.32 0.4 percent
United States Durable Goods Orders Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Durable Goods Orders using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Durable Goods Orders - was last predicted on Thursday, July 27, 2017.



United States Business Last Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 57.8 52.4 51.5 52 52.3 52
Manufacturing PMI 53.2 53.8 53 52.7 52.9 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.4 57.5 57.41 57.2 57.3 57.37
Services PMI 54.2 52.4 52.7 52.9 53 54.8
Composite Pmi 54.2 53.8 52 52.4 52.7 55.1
Industrial Production 2 2 3 2.4 1.9 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.2 2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.9
Capacity Utilization 76.6 75.9 76 76.4 76.6 78
Durable Goods Orders 6.5 0.3 -1.2 0.33 0.32 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 6.7 0.28 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.31
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.19 0.19 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.3 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26
New Orders 464862 462493 461235 460802 460645 460552
Factory Orders -0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.28 0.2
Business Inventories 0.3 0.1 -0.8 0.15 0.2 0.2
Changes in Inventories 2.6 32.4 70.07 29.09 25.8 72.03
Wholesale Inventories 0.6 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2
Bankruptcies 23591 22994 22746 22761 22726 22830
Corporate Profits 1567 1571 1589 1576 1584 1581
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104 101 95 94 97 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 19.5 12 9 8 10 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 6 4 3 6 3
Ism New York Index 55.5 52.98 52.55 53.54 52.94 53.12
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.8 9 8 7 9 5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 15 14.3 14 15 14.5 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.2 0.05
Chicago Pmi 65.7 55 54 53 53.5 64.46
Total Vehicle Sales 16.51 15 14 18 18 18.7
Car Production 3.15 3.86 3.61 3.89 3.89 4.04
Car Registrations 581 563 543 551 554 549
Crude Oil Stocks Change -7.21 1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change 17 10.17 8.71 8.66 8.65 8.65
Gasoline Stocks Change -1015 5.77 14.49 14.5 14.5 14.5
Leading Economic Index 182 180 179 178 177 173
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.78 54.76
Steel Production 6707 6400 6470 6675 6637 7150
Mining Production 9.9 10.8 2 7 6.4 1
Ease of Doing Business 8 7 7 6 6 6
Competitiveness Index 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.71 5.73 5.69
Competitiveness Rank 3 3 3 3 3 3
Corruption Index 74 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18 16 16 16 16 16