United States Average Hourly Earnings  Forecast 2016-2020

Average Hourly Earnings in the United States is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Average Hourly Earnings in the United States to stand at 0.17 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Average Hourly Earnings is projected to trend around 0.19 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Average Hourly Earnings
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2 0.2 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.19 percent
United States Average Hourly Earnings Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Average Hourly Earnings using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Average Hourly Earnings - was last predicted on Thursday, June 29, 2017.



United States Labour Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 6
Non Farm Payrolls 138 145 165 160 190 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 147 143 148 148 148 148
Government Payrolls -9 10 11.44 13 9.43 11
Manufacturing Payrolls -1 5 8.81 10 9.57 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 244 242 243 243 243 243
Continuing Jobless Claims 1948 1947 1972 1979 1982 1983
ADP Employment Change 253 230 232 164 234 150
Employed Persons 152923 153107 153370 153632 153868 154000
Unemployed Persons 6861 6769 6479 6254 6081 5528
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2 0.2 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.19
Average Weekly Hours 34.4 34.37 34.39 34.39 34.39 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7 62.73 62.75 62.75 62.75 62.75
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.01 0.97 1.18 1.07 1.05 0.14
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.8 8.85 8.49 8.25 8.05 7.38
Labour Costs 110 110 110 111 111 114
Productivity 108 106 108 108 108 111
Job Vacancies 6371 5938 5869 5886 5927 6007
Job Offers 6044 5979 6073 6137 6186 6373
Challenger Job Cuts 51692 45335 48049 46550 47359 63500
Wages 22 22.25 22.45 22.72 22.79 26.5
Wage Growth 3.67 3.64 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Wages in Manufacturing 20.78 21.11 21.36 21.61 21.72 25.61
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75
Employment Cost Index 0.8 0.63 0.59 0.66 0.63 0.63
Labor Market Conditions Index 2.3 1.6 2.7 2 1.7 0.5
Population 324 326 326 326 328 332
Retirement Age Women 66 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66 66 66 66 66 66
Living Wage Family 1496 1633 1641 1640 1640 1640
Living Wage Individual 1408 1380 1373 1369 1366 1362
Part Time Employment 27366 27375 27392 27391 27391 27391
Full Time Employment 125620 125821 126123 126391 126615 127554
Employment Rate 60 60.06 60.07 60.1 60.11 60.17
Wages Low Skilled 1780 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827
Wages High Skilled 4130 3956 3950 3968 4006 3973