Monday July 09 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Rises for First Time in 6 Months
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico rose to 4.65 percent year-on-year in June 2018 from 4.51 percent in May and exceeding market expectations of 4.56 percent. It was the first increase in inflation since December, mainly due to higher cost of energy and fuels. The central bank noted that inflation could converge to the 3 percent target more slowly than initially estimated. Main reasons are linked to recent shocks including further peso depreciation caused by fears surrounding the future of NAFTA, presidential elections and rising cost of fuels.

Year-on-year, inflation continued to climb for: energy (15.22 percent vs 12.37 percent in May); housing (2.60 percent vs 2.57 percent); and other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.76 percent vs 3.73 percent). In contrast, prices increased at a slower pace for food, beverages & tobacco (4.49 percent vs 4.73 percent); education (4.81 percent vs 4.82 percent) and they fell further for fruits and vegetables (-1.40 percent vs -0.87 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.39 percent, compared to a 0.16 percent fall in May and market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Main upward pressure came from prices of energy (2.29 percent vs -2.39 percent in May), namely electricity (1.49 percent vs -22.32 percent) and gasoline (1.45 percent vs 1.08 percent); housing (0.24 percent vs 0.21 percent in May); other services (0.49 percent vs 0.47 percent) and fruits and vegetables (0.17 percent vs -2.69 percent), such as oranges (33.34 vs 26.08 percent); potatoes and other tubers (5.82 percent vs 4.20 percent) while cost of lemons fell much less (-21.29 percent vs -40.88 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.23 percent during the month (0.26 percent in May) and was up 3.62 percent on a yearly basis (3.69 percent in May), hitting its lowest level since December of 2016.




Wednesday June 27 2018
Mexico Posts Largest Trade Gap on Record for May
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of USD 1587.0 million in May of 2018, compared with USD 1203.1 million a year ago and worse than market expectations of a USD 665 million shortfall. It was the largest trade gap for a May month so far. Imports jumped 11.5 percent to a record high, as rising oil prices pushed up the value of oil purchases while exports grew at a softer 10.9 percent.

Year-on-year, imports surged 11.5 percent to a record high of USD 40,764 million in May 2018. Oil purchases soared 51.3 percent to USD 4,458 million; and non-oil imports advanced 8.1 percent to USD 36,306 million, boosted by consumer goods (12.6 percent), intermediate goods (11.7 percent) and capital goods (9.1 percent).

On the other hand, exports rose at a softer 10.9 percent to USD 39,177 million. Non-oil sales, which represented around 93 percent of total exports, grew 7.8 percent to USD 36,346 million. Shipments went up for manufactured products (7.8 percent), namely steel products (39.9 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (15.1 percent); professional and scientific equipment (9.6 percent); automotive products (5.5 percent) and electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (2.7 percent). In addition, sales of mining products rose 38.5 percent. Meanwhile, those for agricultural goods showed no growth, as increases registered in exports of citrus (60.4 percent); cucumber (41.6 percent); pepper (23.2 percent); mango (20.5 percent) and fruits and edible fruits (16.8 percent) were offset by declines in the ones of avocados (-41.5 percent) and fresh vegetables (-15.6 percent).

Oil sales rose 73.6 percent to USD 2,831 million in May 2018. Mexico exported 1.222 million barrels a day, above 0.958 million a year ago. Crude oil prices were up to USD 62.83 a barrel, USD 18.95 more than in May of 2017.

Non-oil dispatches to the US, which accounted for more than 80 percent of total sales, increased 6.5 percent, supported by exports of other products (8.9 percent) and autos (1.6 percent). Exports to the rest of the world advanced at a faster 13.9 percent, with sales of autos rising 25.9 percent and those of other products increasing 9.0 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade deficit widened to USD 1368 million from USD 695 million, as imports grew at a faster 1.66 percent and exports went up 0.05 percent.




Thursday June 07 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Drops to 4.51% in May
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico eased further to 4.51 percent year-on-year in May 2018 from 4.55 percent in April while markets were expecting a sharper decrease to 4.43 percent. Still, it remained at its lowest level since December of 2016, as prices slowed more for food, beverages & tobacco.

Year-on-year, prices continued to ease for food, beverages & tobacco (4.73 percent vs 4.90 percent in April); education (4.82 percent vs 4.84 percent) and they fell for fruits and vegetables (-0.87 percent vs 4.07 percent). Meanwhile, inflation picked up for energy (12.37 percent vs 9.12 percent); other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.73 percent vs 3.24 percent) and housing (2.57 percent vs 2.56 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased 0.16 percent, compared to a 0.34 percent drop in April and market expectations of a 0.23 percent fall. Main downward pressure came from prices of electricity (-22.32 percent vs -13.86 percent); lemon (-40.88 percent vs -4.40 percent) and eggs (-7.58 percent vs -4.18 percent); while cost rebounded for domestic gas (7.22 percent vs -5.80 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.26 percent during the month (0.15 percent in April) and was almost unchanged at 3.69 percent on a yearly basis (3.70 percent in April), hitting the lowest level since December 2016.  


Friday May 25 2018
Mexico Unexpectedly Posts Trade Gap in April
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of USD 289.1 million in April 2018 compared to a USD 900.5 million surplus a year ago and missing market expectations of a USD 931 million surplus, as imports were stronger than exports.

Year-on-year, imports jumped 21.4 percent to USD 37,470 million in April 2018. Oil purchases rose 48.7 percent to USD 4,270 million; and non-oil imports advanced 18.6 percent to USD 33,200 million, boosted by intermediate goods (20.0 percent), consumer goods (26.1 percent) and capital goods (25.8 percent).

Meantime, exports grew at a slower 17 percent to USD 37,181 million. Non-oil sales, which represented around 93 percent of total exports, increased 15 percent to USD 34,588 million. Shipments went up for manufactured products (14.9 percent), especially steel products (37.4 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (21 percent); automotive products (19.9 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (12.6 percent). Also, sales increased for agricultural goods (13.9 percent), mostly onion and garlic (96.5 percent); mango (40 percent); tomato (31.2 percent); fruits and edible fruits (18.8 percent); avocados (8.8 percent); and mining products (18.3 percent).

Oil exports rose 54.4 percent to USD 2,592 million. Mexico sold 1.266 million barrels a day, above 1.017 million a year ago. Crude oil prices also were up to USD 58.08 a barrel, USD 14.59 more than in April of 2017.

Non-oil shipments to the US, which accounted for more than 80 percent of total sales, increased 10.7 percent, driven by exports of other products (11.7 percent) and autos (8.6 percent). Exports to the rest of the world jumped 35.4 percent, with sales of autos climbing 95.3 percent and those of other products rising at a slower 16.5 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 640 million from USD 681 million, as imports fell 2.36 percent and exports declined 2.3 percent. 


Wednesday May 23 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Revised Up to 1.3% in Q1
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy expanded 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, above a preliminary figure of 1.2 percent, following a 1.5 percent growth in the previous quarter and slightly below market expectations of 1.35 percent. It was the weakest growth rate since the last quarter of 2013, mainly due to industrial and services sector.

The services sector increased 2.0 percent, down from a 2.1 percent expansion in the preliminary estimate and below a 2.4 percent growth in the previous period. Output rose less for financial services and insurance (4.1 percent from 5.4 percent in Q4 2017); information and communication (3.0 percent from 3.9 percent) and wholesale trade (2.5 percent from 4.8 percent). Also, production fell for education (-0.8 percent from 1.2 percent) and cultural and sports activities (-0.1 percent from 3.2 percent) and dropped further for business services (-2.8 percent from -1.6 percent). On the other hand, faster growth was seen in real estate activities (1.3 percent from 0.7 percent); retail trade (3.2 percent from 2.1 percent); health and social activities (3.0 percent from 1.9 percent) and transportation (2.8 percent from 2.7 percent). 

Industrial activity shrank 0.8 percent, below a 1.1 percent contraction in the preliminary figure and following a 1.0 percent fall in the prior quarter. Mining contracted less (-6.1 percent from -8.8 percent) and manufacturing while output rebounded for construction (1.5 percent from -1.3 percent) and utilies (a flat reading from -0.6 percent). Meantime, manufacturing sector dropped (-0.2 percent from 1.8 percent).

The agricultural sector accelerated 5.4 percent, up from the preliminary estimate of a 5.3 percent and above a 4.3 percent expansion in the previous period. It was the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2014.

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.3 percent, in line with preliminary figures, slowing from 1.5 percent expansion in the prior quarter.




Wednesday May 23 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Revised Up to 1.1% QoQ in Q1
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican gross domestic product advanced 1.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018, compared to an upwardly revised first estimate of 0.9 percent and market forecasts of a 0.95 percent rise. It was the strongest expansion since the third quarter of 2016, mainly boosted by gains in services and industry while the agricultural sector grew less.

Services boosted growth, advancing 1.1 percent, slightly below a preliminary reading of 1.2 percent and at the same pace as in the fourth quarter. Meantime, industrial production grew 0.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 0.7 percent and above a revised 0.2 percent gain in Q4. The utilities sector rebounded (0.7 percent vs -0.2 percent in Q4) and construction grew significantly (2.8 percent vs 1.1 percent). On the other hand, manufacturing showed no growth (from 0.4 percent in Q4) and mining and quarrying contracted (-0.9 percent, the same pace as in Q4).

Conversely, the agricultural sector rose 0.9 percent, compared to a preliminary figure of 0.8 percent but well below an upwardly revised 2.8 percent growth in Q4.

Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3 percent, the weakest growth since the last quarter of 2013, above a preliminary figure of 1.2 percent and slowing from a 1.5 percent rise in the previous quarter. It compares with market expectations of 1.35 percent. 




Wednesday May 09 2018
Mexico April Inflation Rate at Near 1-1/2-Year Low
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico eased to 4.55 percent year-on-year in April of 2018 from 5.04 percent in March and below market expectations of 4.59 percent. The inflation slowed for the fourth consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since December 2016. Prices rose at a softer pace for food, beverages and tobacco; fruits and vegetables and other services.

Year-on-year, inflation eased for food, beverages and tobacco (4.90 percent vs 5.35 percent in March); fruits and vegetables (4.07 percent vs 8.82 percent); other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.24 percent vs 4.07 percent) while was steady for education (4.84 percent). On the other hand, prices rose faster for energy (9.12 percent vs 8.85 percent) and housing (2.56 percent vs 2.54 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched down 0.34 percent, compared to a 0.32 percent increase in March while markets were expecting a 0.31 percent fall. The most significant monthly price decreases were recorded for electricity due to summer subsidies (-13.86 percent vs 0.75 percent); domestic gas (-5.80 percent vs -3.62 percent); package tourist services (-8.86 percent vs 11.29 percent) and air transportation (-14.12 percent vs 9.39 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.15 percent during the month (0.33 percent in March) and 3.7 percent year-on-year (4.0 percent in March).


Monday April 30 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Slows Further in Q1
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2018, below 1.5 percent in the previous quarter. It is the lowest growth rate since the last three months of 2013, preliminary estimates showed.

Industry contracted 1.1 percent, after a 1 percent drop in Q4 and marking four straight quarters of declines. Also, the services sector grew at a slower 2.1 percent compared to 2.4 percent in Q4. On the other hand, agricultural output rose at a faster 5.3 percent (4.3 percent in Q4).

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.1 percent, above 0.8 percent in the previous period and the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2016.


Monday April 30 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Highest in 1-1/2 Year
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018, above 0.8 percent in the previous period. It is the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2016, preliminary estimates showed.

The services sector went up 1.2 percent, primary activities 0.8 percent and industry 0.7 percent.

Year-on-year, the economy advanced 1.2 percent, below 1.5 percent in Q4 2017. It is the worse performance since the last quarter of 2013 as the industrial sector slumped 1.1 percent, the fourth straight quarter of contraction. 


Friday April 27 2018
Mexico Trade Surplus Hit a Record High in March
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded an all-time high trade surplus of USD 1918 million in March of 2018 compared to a USD 63 million shortfall a year ago and beating market consensus of a 228 million surplus, as exports grew much faster than imports.

Year-on-year, exports surged 10 percent to a record USD 39,650 million. Non-oil sales, which accounted for around 94 percent of total exports, rose 8.6 percent to USD 37,262 million. Shipments grew for manufactured products (7.5 percent), mainly steel products (29 percent); automotive products (16.8 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (8.3 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (4.4 percent). Also, sales grew for mining products (51.7 percent) and agricultural goods (18 percent), especially fish, crustaceans and molluscs (156.2 percent); tomato (40.8 percent); pepper (37.5 percent); onion and garlic (37.3 percent) and avocados (24.8 percent).

Oil exports grew 38.9 percent to USD 2,388 million. Mexico sold 1.176 million barrels a day, above 1.001 million a year ago. Crude oil prices also were up to USD 55.45 a barrel, USD 13.38 more than in March of 2017.

Non-oil exports to the US, which represented more than 80 percent of total shipments, increased 5.5 percent, boosted by exports of autos (8.5 percent) and other products (4 percent). Sales to the rest of the world jumped 22.7 percent, as exports of autos climbed 64.7 percent and those of other products grew 6.4 percent.

Imports advanced at a slower 4.5 percent to USD 37.732 million in March 2018. Oil purchases rose 24.3 percent and non-oil imports grew 2.4 percent with biggest gains recorded for consumer goods (5.5 percent); intermediate goods (4.5 percent) and capital goods (3.4 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, imports increased 3.2 percent in March 2018 from February and exports went up at a softer 2.6 percent, thus widening the trade deficit to USD 718,8 million from USD 486,3 million.