Wednesday January 09 2019
Mexico Inflation Rate Edges Up to 4.83% in December
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico rose to 4.83 percent in December 2018 from 4.72 percent in the prior month, slightly below market expectations of 4.89 percent. Prices increased at a faster pace for other services and agricultural goods while inflation was barely unchanged for housing.

Year-on-year, inflation picked up for other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (4.09 percent vs 3.98 percent in November) and agricultural goods (7.06 percent vs 4.78 percent), amid rising cost of fruits & vegetables (10.20 percent vs 6.02 percent) and livestock products (3.35 percent vs 3.15 percent). On the other hand, prices advanced less for energy (11.62 percent vs 13.26 percent) and food, beverages & tobacco (4.73 percent vs 4.79 percent). Meantime, inflation remained almost unchanged for housing (2.62 percent vs 2.60 percent) and was steady for education (at 4.69 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.7 percent, following a 0.85 percent rise in November and slightly below market expectations of a 0.75 percent gain. Prices slowed mostly for housing (0.19 percent vs 0.22 percent) while decreased for energy (-0.69 percent vs 2.89 percent). In contrast, cost continued to advance for agricultural goods (4.03 percent vs 3.48 percent), namely eggs (3.38 percent vs 2.83 percent); food, beverages & tobacco (0.46 percent vs 0.36 percent) and other services (1.11 percent vs 0.31 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased by 0.47 percent during the month (vs 0.25 percent in November) and went up by 3.69 percent on a yearly basis (vs 3.63 percent in November).




Friday December 28 2018
Mexico Trade Balance Swings to Deficit
INEGI | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico reported a USD 2382 million trade deficit in November of 2018 compared to a USD 408 million surplus a year earlier. Exports rose 2.8 percent, boosted by sales to the US while imports jumped at a faster 10.4 percent. Considering the first eleven months of the year, Mexico recorded a USD 15541 million gap, 41.7 percent higher than in the same period of 2017.

Exports went up 2.8 percent year-on-year to USD 38544 million. Non-oil exports increased 3.3 percent, mainly boosted by sales of manufacturing (4.1 percent), namely machinery and special equipment (15.8 percent); professional and scientific equipment (9.7 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (8.5 percent) and automotive products (5.6 percent). On the other hand, sales of agricultural products declined 8.8 percent, mainly due to coffee in grain (-67.6 percent); avocado (-38.6 percent); cucumber (-32.6 percent); fresh vegetables (-14.7 percent) and tomato (-6.7 percent). Shipments of mining dropped 11.9 percent and oil sales fell 4.5 percent. The country exported 1.135 million barrels of crude oil per day, below 1.388 million a year earlier while the price was USD 60.69 per barrel, $7.49 above the price in November of 2017.

Non-oil exports to the US increased 4.3 percent, of which auto sales went up 8.4 percent. Sales to the rest of the world dropped 0.6 percent.

Imports rose 10.4 percent to USD 40926 million, led by sales of consumption (4 percent), intermediate (11.8 percent) and capital (6.8 percent) goods.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico reported a USD 2763 million deficit, above a USD 1649 million gap in October. Exports declined 1.6 percent while imports rose 1.3 percent.




Friday December 07 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Slows to 5-Month Low of 4.72%
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico decreased to 4.72 percent in November 2018 from 4.90 percent in the previous month but above market expectations of 4.63 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since June, amid slowing prices of energy and food, beverages & tobacco.

Year-on-year, prices increased less for energy (13.26 percent vs 17.10 percent in October); food, beverages & tobacco (4.79 percent vs 4.84 percent) and other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.98 percent vs 4.30 percent). Meantime, inflation was steady for education (at 4.69 percent) while it edged up for housing & utilities (2.60 percent vs 2.59 percent). Agricultural prices were also higher (4.78 percent vs 2.43 percent), as cost advanced significantly for both fruit (6.02 percent vs 2.06 percent) and livestock (3.15 percent vs 2.52 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 0.85 percent, following a 0.52 percent rise in October and beating market consensus of a 0.77 percent gain. Main upward pressure came from prices of electricity (23.39 percent vs 17.82 percent), as summertime residential subsidies ended in a number of cities; and agricultural products (3.48 percent vs -0.70 percent), including fruit (6.87 percent vs -1.21 percent) and livestock products (0.68 percent vs -0.28 percent). Conversely, cost decreased for domestic gas (-4.50 percent vs 0.90 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased by 0.25 percent during the month (vs 0.31 percent in October) and went up by 3.63 percent on a yearly basis (vs 3.73 percent in October).



Tuesday November 27 2018
Mexico Trade Gap Widens in October
INEGI Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico trade deficit rose to USD 2,936 million in October of 2018 from USD 2,251 million in the corresponding month of the previous year. Exports rose 12.6 percent from a year earlier to USD 41,352 million while imports advanced at a faster 13.7 percent to USD 44,288 million.

Year-on-year, exports jumped 12.6 percent to USD 41,352 million in October 2018, with non-oil sales, which represented around 93.5 percent of total exports, increasing by 12.3 percent to USD 36,667 million. Sales went up for machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (31.1 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (20 percent); automotive products (14.5 percent) and professional and scientific equipment (11.1 percent). On the other hand, sales of agricultural and fishing goods declined 1.7 percent, namely avocado (-41.7 percent); coffee in grain (-38.9 percent); frozen shrimp (-32.4 percent); melon, watermelon and papaya (-23 percent) and onion and garlic (-15.2 percent).

Oil exports surged 17.8 percent to USD 2,685 million in October. The country exported 1,027 million barrels of oil a day, lower than the 1,342 million recorded in the corresponding month of 2017. Crude oil prices rose to USD 73.36 a barrel, USD 23.93 more than in October last year.

Non-oil shipments to the US increased 13.8 percent, driven by autos (16.8 percent) and other products (12.3 percent). Sales to the rest of the world went up 5.6 percent, as exports of both autos (3.8 percent) and other products (6.5 percent) rose. 

Imports climbed 13.7 percent from a year earlier to USD 44,288 million, as non-oil (12 percent) and oil purchases (27.8 percent) increased. Non-oil purchases were boosted by intermediate goods (13.1 percent); consumer goods (13.2 percent) and capital goods (18.6 percent). 

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade gap widened to USD 1,526 million from USD 643.7 million in September, as imports went up 0.33 percent to USD 38,004 million while exports fell 1.94 percent to USD 39,530 million.


Friday November 23 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Revised Down to 0.8% QoQ in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican gross domestic product advanced 0.8 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2018, less than a preliminary estimate of 0.9 percent and compared to a downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter. Services and industry grew faster but the agricultural sector rebounded less than initially estimated.

The services sector advanced 0.8 percent, matching the preliminary figure and more than an upwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in the second quarter. Main positive contributions to growth came from: finance and insurance (4.3 percent vs 2.5 percent in Q2); wholesale trade (1.8 percent vs 1.6 percent); retail trade (0.6 percent vs -2.1 percent); transport & storage (0.9 percent vs 0.5 percent); professional, scientific and technical services (0.4 percent vs 0.3 percent); cultural & sports activities (2.2 percent vs 1.0 percent) and food & accomodation services (0.6 percent vs 0.5 percent). On the other hand, output rose at a softer pace in: information & communication (0.4 percent vs 4.8 percent); real estate activities (0.3 percent vs 0.5 percent); business services (1.5 percent vs 2.4 percent) and health & social assistance (0.7 percent vs 1.1 percent). In addition, declines were seen for corporate services (-1.8 percent vs 5.3 percent) and education (-0.4 percent vs -0.6 percent).

Industrial activity grew 0.5 percent, as initially estimates showed, recovering from a 0.3 percent contraction in the previous period. Output increased faster in manufacturing (0.9 percent vs 0.4 percent in Q2) and utilities (1.5 percent vs 0.7 percent) but declined in mining (-1.6 percent vs -0.2 percent) and contruction (-0.1 percent vs -1.8 percent).

The agricultural sector expanded 0.4 percent, below a preliminary reading of 0.8 percent, but reversing from a downwardly revised 1.0 percent decline in the prior month.

Year-on-year, the Mexican economy grew 2.5 percent, slower than a preliminary figure of 2.6 percent and a 2.6 percent rise in the previous quarter.




Friday November 23 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.5% in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy expanded 2.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, below a preliminary figure of 2.6 percent and a 2.6 percent rise in the previous quarter, mainly as services grew less than initially estimated.

Services expanded 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2018, below a preliminary estimate of 3.4 percent but and at the same pace as a downwardly revised 3.2 percent rise in the prior period. Growth slowed in: wholesale trade (1.8 percent vs 3.6 percent); transport and storage (3.4 percent vs 3.8 percent); information and communication (4.4 percent vs 7.7 percent); business services (5.5 percent vs 7.3 percent) and education (0.2 percent vs 1.2 percent). Meanwhile, faster growth was seen in financial services & insurance (8.5 percent vs 4.5 percent in Q2); retail trade (5.5 percent vs 3.6 percent) and health care & social assistance (3.3 percent vs 2.3 percent). Also, output rebounded for professional, scientific and technical services (3.1 percent vs -0.3 percent) and cultural and sports activities (1.9 percent vs -1.1 percent). At the same time, real estate activities increased at the same pace (2.3 percent).

The industrial sector advanced 1.1 percent, matching the preliminary figure, but below a 1.3 percent increase in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity increased 2.3 percent, slowing from a 3.3 percent growth in the previous period. In addition, output rose less for construction (0.7 percent vs 2.4 percent) while it continued to fall in mining (-2.9 percent vs -6.0 percent). Conversely, the utilities sector expanded robustly (4.0 percent vs 2.1 percent).

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector grew 2.2 percent, in line with an earlier reading, and above a downwardly revised 1.5 percent advance in the prior period.

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.8 percent, less than a preliminary estimate of 0.9 percent and compared to a downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter.




Thursday November 08 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Ticks Down to 4.9% in October
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico eased to 4.9 percent in October 2018 from 5.02 percent in September, as widely expected. Prices rose less mainly for energy and housing.

Year-on-year, inflation softened for energy (17.10 percent vs 19.20 percent in September) and housing (2.59 percent vs 2.62 percent). Also, cost increased at the same pace for education (4.69 percent). On the other hand, prices advanced faster for food, beverages & tobacco (4.84 percent vs 4.80 percent) and other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (4.30 percent vs 4.09 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 0.52 percent, compared to a 0.42 percent rise in September and market consensus of a 0.51 percent gain. Main upward pressure stemmed from prices of electricity (17.82 percent vs -0.67 percent in September), agricultural goods such as tomatoes (10.12 percent vs 4.26 percent), professional services (13.24 percent vs -17.10 percent) and air fares (12.88 percent vs -4.89 percent). Meanwhile, cost advanced less for gasoline (0.90 percent vs 1.47 percent) and domestic gas (0.90 percent vs 5.30 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased by 0.31 percent during the month (0.32 percent in September) and went up by 3.73 percent on a yearly basis (3.67 percent in September).


Tuesday October 30 2018
Mexico GDP Annual Growth Rate at 2.6% in Q3
INEGI Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy expanded 2.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, the same as in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. It remained the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to services and primary activities. Meantime, the industrial sector grew at a slower pace.

Services advanced 3.4 percent, after rising 3.3 percent in the second quarter and primary activities grew 2.2 percent, following a 1.8 percent growth in the previous period. On the other hand, the industrial sector expanded at a slower pace (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent in Q2).

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.9 percent, recovering from a 0.2 percent contraction in the second quarter of 2018.


Tuesday October 30 2018
Mexico Economy Returns to Growth in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 0.9 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2018, reversing from a 0.2 percent contraction in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Both the industrial sector and the primary sector recovered and services grew faster.

The industrial sector rebounded 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in the previous period and the primary sector recovered 0.8 percent after a 2.1 percent contraction in the second quarter. The services sector grew 0.8 percent, faster than a 0.2 percent expansion in the second quarter.

Year-on-year, the Mexican economy grew 2.6 percent, the same pace as in the previous period.


Friday October 26 2018
Mexico Trade Deficit Narrows in September
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico trade deficit narrowed to USD 194 million in September of 2018 from USD 1934 million in the same month a year earlier and compared with market consensus of a USD 1875 million shortfall. It was the smallest trade gap since December last year, as exports increased 12 percent and imports rose at a softer 6.4 percent.

Year-on-year, exports jumped 12 percent to USD 37,806 million in September 2018, with non-oil sales, which represented around 92.7 percent of total exports, increasing 10 percent to USD 35,031 million. Sales went up for machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (19.1 percent); automotive products (17.8 percent); steel products (17.8 percent) and plastic and rubber goods (11.6 percent). Additionally, sales of agricultural and fishing goods rose 1.0 percent, namely fish, crustaceans and mollusks (66.7 percent), cattle (41.3 percent) and fresh vegetables (30 percent).

Oil exports surged 43.8 percent to USD 2,775 million in September. The country exported 1,206 million barrels of oil a day, higher than the 1,159 million recorded in the corresponding month of 2017. Crude oil prices rose to USD 68.44 a barrel, USD 20.14 more than in September last year.

Non-oil shipments to the US, which accounted for more than 80 percent of total sales, increased 9.8 percent, driven by autos (16.9 percent) and other products (5.9 percent). Sales to the rest of the world went up 11.2 percent, as exports of both autos (22.2 percent) and other products (6.2 percent) rose.

Imports advanced 6.4 percent to USD 37,999 million, as non-oil (5.1 percent) and oil purchases (18 percent) increased. Non-oil imports were boosted by intermediate goods (7 percent), consumer goods (1.8  percent) and capital goods (9.1 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade gap declined to USD 460 million from USD 1,172 million, as exports went up 0.9 percent to USD 38,939 million and imports fell 0.9 percent to USD 39,399 million.