Friday September 07 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Ticks Up to 5-Month High of 4.9%
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico increased to 4.9 percent in August 2018 from 4.8 percent in July and above market expectations of 4.83 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since March, due to an overall rise in prices namely for energy and food. Meanwhile, cost went up slightly less for housing.

Year-on-year, prices continued to advance for: energy (18.96 percent vs 17.63 percent in July); food, beverages and tobacco (4.55 percent vs 4.51 percent); other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.81 percent vs 3.61 percent) and education (5.02 percent vs 4.79 percent). On the other hand, inflation eased slightly for housing (2.56 percent vs 2.61 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.58 percent, following a 0.54 percent increase in July and exceeding market expectations of a 0.51 percent gain. Main upward pressure came from prices of gasoline (2.73 percent) and agricultural goods such as onion (42.5 percent) and lemons (24.52 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.25 percent during the month (0.29 percent in July) and was up 3.63 percent on a yearly basis (the same as in July).




Monday August 27 2018
Mexico Trade Gap Widens Strongly in July
INEGI Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of USD 2889 million in July of 2018 from a USD 1531 million a year earlier and compared with market expectations of a USD 250 million shortfall. Imports jumped 17.6 percent and exports rose at a slower 14.2 percent.

Year-on-year, imports jumped 17.6 percent to USD 39,610 million in July of 2018. Non-oil purchases increased 13.6 percent to USD 34,696 million, driven by higher purchases of intermediate goods (16.5 percent); capital goods (23.5 percent) and consumer goods (19.7 percent). Oil imports surged 56.8 percent to USD 4,914 million.

Exports advanced at a slower 14.2 percent to USD 36,721 million, with non-oil sales, which accounted for around 93 percent of total exports, rising 12.9 percent to USD 34,117 million. Shipments increased for manufactured products (13.1 percent), especially steel products (38 percent); automotive products (16.4 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (14.8 percent); electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (9.7 percent) and machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (9.4 percent). Meantime, sales of agricultural goods went up (4.0 percent), due to rises in sales of fish, crustaceans and mollusks (56.2 percent); fruits and edible fruits (48 percent); pepper (24.6 percent); cattle (21.4 percent) and tomato (18.7 percent). In addition, shipments were up for mining products (19.9 percent).

Oil exports grew 34.2 percent to USD 2,604 million in July 2018. Mexico exported 1,156 million barrels a day, below the 1,255 million recorded in the corresponding month of 2017. Crude oil prices in turn were up to USD 66.26 a barrel, USD 1.66 million more than in July of 2017.

Non-oil dispatches to the US, which represented more than 80 percent of total sales, went up 12.8 percent, mainly due to exports of autos (17.1 percent) and other products (10.8 percent). Exports to the rest of the world grew at a faster 13.3 percent, boosted by sales of other products (13.4 percent) and autos (13.0 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 1,692 million from USD 1,809 million, as exports increased 0.13 percent to USD 36,860 million while imports dropped 0.18 percent to USD 38,552 million.




Friday August 24 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.6% in Q2
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy expanded 2.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, below a preliminary figure of 2.7 percent and following an upwardly revised 1.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. It was the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2017, driven by services and industrial sector.

The services sector advanced 3.3 percent, down from a 3.4 percent in the preliminary estimate and higher than a 2.1 percent expansion in the prior period. Faster growth was recorded in wholesale trade (3.6 percent compared to 2.4 percent in Q1); retail trade (3.6 percent compared to 3.2 percent); real estate activities (2.3 percent compared to 1.2 percent); financial services and insurance (4.9 percent compared to 4.4 percent); information and communication (7.6 percent compared to 3.0 percent) and transportation (3.7 percent compared to 2.8 percent). Also, output rebounded for business services (1.4 percent compared to -3.2 percent) and education (1.8 percent compared to -0.8 percent). In contrast, production fell further for cultural and sports activities (-1.2 percent compared to -0.1 percent) and growth slowed for social assitance (2.3 percent compared to 3.0 percent).

Industrial activity rebounded to 1.3 percent from a 0.8 percent contraction in the first quarter of the year and below a 1.4 percent expansion in the preliminary figure. Manufactury sector advanced 3.3 percent, after shrinking 0.2 percent in the previous period. Additionally, output rose faster for construction (2.5 percent compared to 1.5 percent) and utilities (1.9 percent compared to 0.8 percent). Meanwhile, mining contracted 6.1 percent, the same pace as in the prior quarter.

The agricultural sector grew 1.8 percent, in line with the preliminary estimate and well below a 5.4 percent expansion in the prior period. It was the weakest growth in the agricultural sector since the first quarter of 2016.

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, more than a preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent contraction and after expanding 1.0 percent in the first quarter.




Friday August 24 2018
Mexico GDP Contracts More than Expected in Q2
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican gross domestic product declined 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2018, up from a preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent contraction and compared to a downwardly revised 1.0 percent growth in the first quarter. It was the worst contraction since the second quarter of 2013 (-0.7 percent), as both the primary sector and industry fell and services slowed further.

The industrial sector shrank 0.3 percent, matching the preliminary estimate and compared to a downwardly revised 0.8 percent rise in the first quarter. The construction sector slumped (-1.7 percent vs 2.2 percent in Q1) and mining and quarrying continued to decrease (-0.2 percent vs -0.6 percent). Meantime, output growth slowed sharply for manufacturing (0.2 percent vs 0.7 percent) and utilities (0.3 percent vs 1.2 pecrent). Also, the primary sector declined 2.1 percent, as initially estimates showed, contrasting with a downwardly revised 0.6 percent expansion in the previous quarter. 

In addition, the services sector grew only 0.2 percent, below a preliminary reading of 0.3 percent and well below a downwardly revised 1.0 percent increase in the first quarter.

Year-on-year, the Mexican economy advanced 2.6 percent, the most since the first quarter of 2017, missing a preliminary figure of 2.7 percent but above a 1.4 percent expansion in the previous period.




Thursday August 09 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Hits 4-Month High of 4.81% in July
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico rose to 4.81 percent year-on-year in July 2018 from 4.65 percent in June and matching market expectations. It was the second straight increase in inflation and the steepest since March, prompted by higher prices of energy, housing and food.

Year-on-year, inflation picked up for: energy (17.63 percent vs 15.22 percent in June); housing (2.61 percent vs 2.60 percent) and foo, beverages and tobacco (4.51 percent vs 4.49 percent). On the other hand, prices slowed for other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.61 percent vs 3.76 percent) and education (4.79 percent vs 4.81 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.54 percent, following a 0.39 percent rise in June and slightly above market expectations of a 0.53 percent gain. Main upward pressure came from prices of gasoline (1.81 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.29 percent during the month (0.23 percent in June) and was up 3.63 percent on a yearly basis (3.62 percent in June).


Tuesday July 31 2018
Mexican GDP Contracts 0.1% QoQ in Q2
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy shrank 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2018, reversing from a 1.1 percent growth in the previous period. It is the first contraction since the last quarter of 2015 as both the primary sector and industry declined, preliminary estimates showed.

The industrial sector declined 0.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent rise in the previous period and the primary sector shrank 2.1 percent after a 0.9 percent expansion in the previous quarter. The services sector grew 0.3 percent, also well below 1.1 percent in the first quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded 2.7 percent, well above 1.3 percent in the previous quarter. It is the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2017.


Tuesday July 31 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Strongest in Over a Year
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy grew 2.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, following a 1.3 percent expansion in the previous quarter, the preliminary figure showed. It was the strongest growth of gross domestic product since the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to industry and services.

Industry increased 1.4 percent, after contracting for four consecutive quarters (-0.8 percent in Q1). Additionally, the services sector advanced at a faster pace (3.4 percent compared to 2.0 percent). In contrast, the agricultural output growth slowed to 1.8 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous period. 

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.1 percent, falling from a 1.1 percent expansion in the first quarter of the year.


Friday July 27 2018
Mexico Trade Balance Swings to Deficit in June
INEGI Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade balance shifted to USD 897 million deficit in June of 2018 from a USD 0.81 million surplus a year earlier and worse than market expectations of a USD 250 million shortfall. Imports increased 8 percent, boosted by oil purchases while exports rose 5.5 percent.

Year-on-year, imports advanced 8 percent to USD 38,381 million in June of 2018. Oil imports edged up 51.7 percent to USD 4,703 million and non-oil purchases increased 3.8 percent to USD 33,678 million, due to capital goods (9.8 percent); consumer goods (9.4 percent) and intermediate (7.5 pecent).

Exports went up 5.5 percent to USD 37,484 million, as non-oil sales which accounted for around 93 percent of total exports, rose 3.6 percent to USD 34,974 million. Sales advanced for  manufactured goods (3.5 percent), mainly due to food, beverages and tobacco (8.3 percent), professional and scientific equipment (6.7 percent),  automotive products (5.9 percent), plastic and rubber products (5.5 percent) and machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (2.6 percent). Additionally, exports grew for agricultural goods (2.3 percent), namely melon, watermelon and papaya (82.3 percent), fish, crustaceans and mollusks (70 percent), cattle (62.1 percent), fruits and edible fruits (32.6 percent) and tomato (18.4 percent). Also, mining sales  increased 9.5 percent.

Oil exports jumped 41.0 percent to USD 2,510 million in June of 2018. Mexico sold 1,222 million barrels a day, lower than the 1,157 million recorded in the same month a year ago. Crude oil prices picked up to USD 64.60 a barrel, USD 23.30 more than June of 2017.

Non-oil dispatches to the US, which accounted for more than 80 percent of total sales, rose 2.8 percent, mostly due to exports of autos (2.8 percent) and other products (2.9 percent). Exports to the rest of the world went up 6.9 percent, due to higer sales of autos (21.3 percent) and other products (0.5 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade deficit widened to USD 1,652 million from USD 1,355 million in May 2018, as expors fell 0.79 percent while imports increased 0.01 percent.



Monday July 09 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Rises for First Time in 6 Months
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico rose to 4.65 percent year-on-year in June 2018 from 4.51 percent in May and exceeding market expectations of 4.56 percent. It was the first increase in inflation since December, mainly due to higher cost of energy and fuels. The central bank noted that inflation could converge to the 3 percent target more slowly than initially estimated. Main reasons are linked to recent shocks including further peso depreciation caused by fears surrounding the future of NAFTA, presidential elections and rising cost of fuels.

Year-on-year, inflation continued to climb for: energy (15.22 percent vs 12.37 percent in May); housing (2.60 percent vs 2.57 percent); and other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.76 percent vs 3.73 percent). In contrast, prices increased at a slower pace for food, beverages & tobacco (4.49 percent vs 4.73 percent); education (4.81 percent vs 4.82 percent) and they fell further for fruits and vegetables (-1.40 percent vs -0.87 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.39 percent, compared to a 0.16 percent fall in May and market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Main upward pressure came from prices of energy (2.29 percent vs -2.39 percent in May), namely electricity (1.49 percent vs -22.32 percent) and gasoline (1.45 percent vs 1.08 percent); housing (0.24 percent vs 0.21 percent in May); other services (0.49 percent vs 0.47 percent) and fruits and vegetables (0.17 percent vs -2.69 percent), such as oranges (33.34 vs 26.08 percent); potatoes and other tubers (5.82 percent vs 4.20 percent) while cost of lemons fell much less (-21.29 percent vs -40.88 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.23 percent during the month (0.26 percent in May) and was up 3.62 percent on a yearly basis (3.69 percent in May), hitting its lowest level since December of 2016.


Wednesday June 27 2018
Mexico Posts Largest Trade Gap on Record for May
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of USD 1587.0 million in May of 2018, compared with USD 1203.1 million a year ago and worse than market expectations of a USD 665 million shortfall. It was the largest trade gap for a May month so far. Imports jumped 11.5 percent to a record high, as rising oil prices pushed up the value of oil purchases while exports grew at a softer 10.9 percent.

Year-on-year, imports surged 11.5 percent to a record high of USD 40,764 million in May 2018. Oil purchases soared 51.3 percent to USD 4,458 million; and non-oil imports advanced 8.1 percent to USD 36,306 million, boosted by consumer goods (12.6 percent), intermediate goods (11.7 percent) and capital goods (9.1 percent).

On the other hand, exports rose at a softer 10.9 percent to USD 39,177 million. Non-oil sales, which represented around 93 percent of total exports, grew 7.8 percent to USD 36,346 million. Shipments went up for manufactured products (7.8 percent), namely steel products (39.9 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (15.1 percent); professional and scientific equipment (9.6 percent); automotive products (5.5 percent) and electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (2.7 percent). In addition, sales of mining products rose 38.5 percent. Meanwhile, those for agricultural goods showed no growth, as increases registered in exports of citrus (60.4 percent); cucumber (41.6 percent); pepper (23.2 percent); mango (20.5 percent) and fruits and edible fruits (16.8 percent) were offset by declines in the ones of avocados (-41.5 percent) and fresh vegetables (-15.6 percent).

Oil sales rose 73.6 percent to USD 2,831 million in May 2018. Mexico exported 1.222 million barrels a day, above 0.958 million a year ago. Crude oil prices were up to USD 62.83 a barrel, USD 18.95 more than in May of 2017.

Non-oil dispatches to the US, which accounted for more than 80 percent of total sales, increased 6.5 percent, supported by exports of other products (8.9 percent) and autos (1.6 percent). Exports to the rest of the world advanced at a faster 13.9 percent, with sales of autos rising 25.9 percent and those of other products increasing 9.0 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the trade deficit widened to USD 1368 million from USD 695 million, as imports grew at a faster 1.66 percent and exports went up 0.05 percent.