Tuesday January 09 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate at 16-1/2-Year High in December
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The consumer price index in Mexico increased 6.77 percent year-on-year in December of 2017, after a 6.63 percent gain in the previous month and slightly above market consensus of 6.75 percent. It was the third consecutive rise in consumer prices and the sharpest since May 2001. Prices were higher for energy and food. The central bank expects inflation to converge to 3 percent by the end of 2018.

Year-on-year, prices remained high for: energy (17.69 percent from 17.04 percent in November) and food, beverages and tobacco (6.82 percent from 6.84 percent). On the other hand, cost slowed slightly for housing and utilities (2.65 percent from 2.68 percent) while increased at the same pace for education (4.74 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.59 percent, slowing from a 1.03 percent gain in November but above market expectations of a 0.18 percent increase.

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.42 percent during the month (0.34 percent in November) and 4.87 percent year-on-year (4.90 percent in November).




Wednesday December 27 2017
Mexico Unexpectedly Posts Trade Surplus
INEGI | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a USD 399.2 million trade surplus in November of 2017, above a USD 72.6 million surplus a year earlier and beating market expectations of a USD 780 million gap. Exports reached a new record high while imports rose at a slower pace.

Exports went up 9.2 percent year-on-year to USD 37,480 million. Non-oil shipments increased 7.3 percent: manufactured products (7.5 percent) namely steel products (24.6 percent); autos (11.6 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (9.8 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (3.3 percent) and electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (2.3 percent); agricultural goods (5 percent), namely cucumber (65.8 percent); cattle beef (64.6 percent); frozen shrimp (54.9 percent); fresh vegetables (29.6 percent); fish, crustaceans and molluscs (24.4 percent); and mining products (2.2 percent). Oil sales jumped 44.7 percent. Mexico exported 1,88 million barrels a day, above 1,273 a year earlier. Crude oil prices also went up to USD 52.9 a barrel, USD 14.05 more than in November of 2016.  

Exports to the US which account for more than 80 percent of total sales went up 5.7 percent with shipments of autos rising 8.4 percent. Exports to the rest of the world increased 14.9 percent.

Imports rose 8.2 percent year-on-year to USD 37,081 million. Non-oil purchases rose 5.4 percent and oil ones surged 38.6 percent. Consumption goods went up 14.6 percent; intermediate goods 7.4 percent and capital goods 5.9 percent. 

Considering the first eleven months of the year, exports rose 9.7 percent and imports increased at a slower 8.6 percent, thus narrowing the trade gap by 18.3 percent to USD 10,718 million.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports declined 1 percent in November from October and imports increased 1.7 percent.




Thursday December 07 2017
Mexico Inflation Rate Picks Up to 6.6% in November
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Mexico rose 6.63 percent year-on-year in November of 2017, following a 6.37 percent gain in the prior month and slightly above market expectations of 6.3 percent. It was the second straight rise in consumer prices, as cost advanced faster for energy, housing and utilities and food. The central bank expects inflation to stay above the 3-4 percent target in 2017 and to converge to 3 percent by the end of 2018. However, this will highly depend on stability of peso during 2018.

Year-on-year, prices climbed for: energy (17.04 percent vs 16.34 percent in October); housing and utilities (2.68 percent vs 2.65 percent) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.84 percent vs 6.73 percent). Meantime, cost increased at the same pace for education (4.74 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 1.03 percent, after rising 0.63 percent in October and slightly higher than market expectations of 1.01 percent.

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices went up 0.34 percent during the month and 4.90 percent year-on-year.


Tuesday November 28 2017
Mexico Jobless Rate Falls to 3.5% in October
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Mexico declined to 3.5 percent in October of 2017 from 3.67 percent in the same month a year ago but slightly above market expectations of 3.4 percent. When adjusted for seasonality, the jobless rate went up to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent in September and compared with market consensus of 3.3 percent.

Compared to October of 2016, the jobless rate went down for men (3.3 percent from 3.7 percent) but increased slightly for women (3.8 percent from 3.7 percent). Among unemployed people, 18.1 percent had not completed secondary education while 81.8 percent had a higher education.

Those underemployed accounted for 7.4 percent of total employed, lower than 8.1 percent a year ago.

The participation rate remained unchanged at 59.5 percent.




Monday November 27 2017
Mexico Posts Largest October Trade Gap Since 2008
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico trade deficit increased to USD 2066 million in October of 2017 from a USD 898 million shortfall a year ago. It was the largest trade gap for an October month since 2008 when a USD 3292.3 million deficit was recorded. Imports surged 16.3 percent year-on-year to a new record-high USD 38.97 billion, mainly led by purchases of consumption goods, namely oil products. Meanwhile exports advanced at a softer 13.2 percent to USD 36.90 billion, underpinned by oil sales. Considering the first ten months of the year, the trade gap shrank 15.7 percent to USD 11.1 billion, as exports rose 9.7 percent and imports inched up 8.7 percent.

Imports advanced 16.3 percent year-on-year to a new record-high of USD 38.97 billion in October of 2017, boosted by purchases of consumption goods (18 percent), namely oil products (40 percent); intermediate goods (17 percent) and capital goods (9.2 percent).

Exports increased at a softer 13.2 percent to USD 36.90 billion in October of 2017, underpinned by oil sales (16.5 percent). Non-oil sales, which accounted for around 94 percent of total exports, rose 13 percent. Within non-oil exports, sales of manufactured goods advanced 12.6 percent, namely those of autos (18.8 percent); food (15 percent); special machinery and equipment for industries (14.6 percent); professional and scientific equipment (12.8 percent) and electronic goods and electrical appliances (3.3 percent). Also, sales grew for agricultural and fisheries (24.2 percent), boosted by higher exports of avocados (78.9 percent); beef cattle (75 percent); frozen shrimp (52.6 percent); fresh vegetables (33.3 percent) and pepper (27.1 percent). Meantime, sales of mining products grew 10.5 percent.

Exports to the United States surged 11.1 percent, accounting for around 82 percent of total non-oil shipments. Auto sales to the US increased 12.3 percent and exports of other products advanced 10.4 percent. Sales to the rest of the world jumped 22.2 percent, with autos climbing 61.3 percent and other products rising 9.8 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports decreased 0.62 percent to USD 33.89 billion, dragged down by a 0.95 percent fall in non-oil shipments while oil sales went up 5.35 percent. Imports declined at a faster 1.11 percent to USD 35.43 billion, as non-oil purchases fell 2.12 percent while oil imports surged 8.09 percent, thus narrowing the trade deficit to USD 1537 million from USD 1725 million in September of 2017.


Friday November 24 2017
Mexico GDP Shrinks More than Expected in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy contracted 0.3 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, worse than a preliminary estimate of a 0.2 percent decline and compared to a downwardly revised 0.3 percent increase in the previous quarter. Manufacturing declined more than expected, final figures showed. It was the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2015.

Industrial output decreased 0.6 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of a 0.5 percent slump and after falling 0.4 percent in the previous quarter. The services sector edged down 0.1 percent, in line with the preliminary reading and worse than a 0.6 percent rise in the second quarter. The primary sector went up 0.5 percent (0.5 percent in the first figure) and compared to a 0.7 percent decline in the previous period.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded an unadjusted 1.5 percent in the third quarter, the lowest growth rate in four years.




Friday November 24 2017
Mexico GDP Growth Revised Down to 1.5% in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017, below a preliminary estimate of 1.6 percent and slowing from a 1.9 percent reported in the previous period. It was the weakest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2013 as services and agriculture slowed down while industry shrank less, final figures showed.

The services sector rose 2.4 percent, matching the preliminary estimate and easing from a 3.1 percent increase in the previous quarter. Activities slowed mostly for: retail trade (0.2 percent vs 5.7 percent in Q2); transportation (2.4 percent vs 3.5 percent); information and communication (6.2 percent vs 6.9 percent); financial and insurance (8.2 percent vs 9.8 percent); real estate activities (1.4 percent vs 2 percent); health (2.5 percent vs 3.3 percent); cultural and sports activities (2.4 percent vs 4.6 percent). Also, output declined for professional, scientific and technical activities (-5.8 percent vs 2.9 percent) and education (-2.3 percent vs -1 percent).

The agricultural sector went up 0.9 percent, in line with the first figure but below a 1.4 percent growth in the prior quarter.

Industrial production tumbled 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent fall in the previous release but better than a 1.4 percent contraction in the second quarter. Production was mostly affected by mining (-10.7 percent vs -8.2 percent), due to lower output from oil (-12.2 percent vs -8 percent); construction (-1.4 percent vs -3.7 percent); utilities (-0.6 percent vs -0.7 percent). Meantime, the manufacturing sector rose at a faster pace (3.2 percent vs 2.1 percent).

On a quarterly basis, the economy contracted 0.3 percent, worse than a preliminary estimate of a 0.2 percent decrease, and compared to a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in the second quarter. It was the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 2015.





Thursday November 09 2017
Mexico Inflation Rate Rises Slightly in October
INEGI |Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Mexico went up 6.37 percent year-on-year in October of 2017, slightly above 6.35 percent in the previous month and missing market expectations of 6.34 percent, mostly due to seasonal factors related to September's earthquakes. Cost grew faster for energy, education and housing and utilities while it slowed down for food and non-alcoholic beverages. The central bank expects inflation to stay above the 3-4 percent target in 2017 and to converge to 3 percent by the end of 2018.

Prices went up faster for: energy (16.34 percent vs 15.26 percent in September); housing and utilities (2.65 percent vs 2.64 percent) and education (4.74 percent 4.73 percent). Meanwhile, cost slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.73 percent vs 7.05 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 0.63 percent, compared to a 0.31 percent rise in September and slightly above market expectations of 0.6 percent.

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.25 percent during the month and 4.77 percent year-on-year.


Tuesday October 31 2017
Mexico GDP Shrinks For First Time in Over 4 Years
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy contracted 0.2 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, following a 0.6 percent rise in the previous period. Industry and services were the main contributors to the decline, preliminary estimates showed. It was the first contraction since the second quarter of 2013, after the country was hit by two devastating earthquakes in September and also hurricanes.

The industry sector tumbled 0.5 percent and services declined 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector went up 0.5 percent.

Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2017, compared to an upwardly revised 1.9 percent expansion in the previous period.


Tuesday October 31 2017
Mexico Economy Grows the Least Since Q4 of 2013
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican gross domestic product advanced 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017, compared to an upwardly revised 1.9 percent expansion in the previous period. It was the lowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2013, mainly due to a slowdown in output of services and agriculture while the industrial sector fell less, preliminary estimates showed.

The services sector advanced 2.4 percent, slower than 3.1 percent in the second quarter and agriculture rose 0.9 percent, following a 1.4 percent gain in the previous period. Meantime, industrial production shrank 0.5 percent, less than a 1.4 percent fall in the three previous months.

On a quarterly basis, the economy declined a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent compared to a 0.6 percent increase in the previous quarter. It was the first contraction since the second quarter of 2013, after the country was hit by two devastating earthquakes in September and also hurricanes.