Wednesday May 09 2018
Mexico April Inflation Rate at Near 1-1/2-Year Low
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico eased to 4.55 percent year-on-year in April of 2018 from 5.04 percent in March and below market expectations of 4.59 percent. The inflation slowed for the fourth consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since December 2016. Prices rose at a softer pace for food, beverages and tobacco; fruits and vegetables and other services.

Year-on-year, inflation eased for food, beverages and tobacco (4.90 percent vs 5.35 percent in March); fruits and vegetables (4.07 percent vs 8.82 percent); other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (3.24 percent vs 4.07 percent) while was steady for education (4.84 percent). On the other hand, prices rose faster for energy (9.12 percent vs 8.85 percent) and housing (2.56 percent vs 2.54 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched down 0.34 percent, compared to a 0.32 percent increase in March while markets were expecting a 0.31 percent fall. The most significant monthly price decreases were recorded for electricity due to summer subsidies (-13.86 percent vs 0.75 percent); domestic gas (-5.80 percent vs -3.62 percent); package tourist services (-8.86 percent vs 11.29 percent) and air transportation (-14.12 percent vs 9.39 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.15 percent during the month (0.33 percent in March) and 3.7 percent year-on-year (4.0 percent in March).




Monday April 30 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Slows Further in Q1
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2018, below 1.5 percent in the previous quarter. It is the lowest growth rate since the last three months of 2013, preliminary estimates showed.

Industry contracted 1.1 percent, after a 1 percent drop in Q4 and marking four straight quarters of declines. Also, the services sector grew at a slower 2.1 percent compared to 2.4 percent in Q4. On the other hand, agricultural output rose at a faster 5.3 percent (4.3 percent in Q4).

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.1 percent, above 0.8 percent in the previous period and the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2016.




Monday April 30 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Highest in 1-1/2 Year
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.1 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018, above 0.8 percent in the previous period. It is the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2016, preliminary estimates showed.

The services sector went up 1.2 percent, primary activities 0.8 percent and industry 0.7 percent.

Year-on-year, the economy advanced 1.2 percent, below 1.5 percent in Q4 2017. It is the worse performance since the last quarter of 2013 as the industrial sector slumped 1.1 percent, the fourth straight quarter of contraction. 




Friday April 27 2018
Mexico Trade Surplus Hit a Record High in March
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded an all-time high trade surplus of USD 1918 million in March of 2018 compared to a USD 63 million shortfall a year ago and beating market consensus of a 228 million surplus, as exports grew much faster than imports.

Year-on-year, exports surged 10 percent to a record USD 39,650 million. Non-oil sales, which accounted for around 94 percent of total exports, rose 8.6 percent to USD 37,262 million. Shipments grew for manufactured products (7.5 percent), mainly steel products (29 percent); automotive products (16.8 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (8.3 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (4.4 percent). Also, sales grew for mining products (51.7 percent) and agricultural goods (18 percent), especially fish, crustaceans and molluscs (156.2 percent); tomato (40.8 percent); pepper (37.5 percent); onion and garlic (37.3 percent) and avocados (24.8 percent).

Oil exports grew 38.9 percent to USD 2,388 million. Mexico sold 1.176 million barrels a day, above 1.001 million a year ago. Crude oil prices also were up to USD 55.45 a barrel, USD 13.38 more than in March of 2017.

Non-oil exports to the US, which represented more than 80 percent of total shipments, increased 5.5 percent, boosted by exports of autos (8.5 percent) and other products (4 percent). Sales to the rest of the world jumped 22.7 percent, as exports of autos climbed 64.7 percent and those of other products grew 6.4 percent.

Imports advanced at a slower 4.5 percent to USD 37.732 million in March 2018. Oil purchases rose 24.3 percent and non-oil imports grew 2.4 percent with biggest gains recorded for consumer goods (5.5 percent); intermediate goods (4.5 percent) and capital goods (3.4 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, imports increased 3.2 percent in March 2018 from February and exports went up at a softer 2.6 percent, thus widening the trade deficit to USD 718,8 million from USD 486,3 million.





Monday April 09 2018
Mexico March Inflation Rate Falls to Over 1-Year Low
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Inflation rate in Mexico eased to 5.04 percent year-on-year in March of 2018 from 5.34 percent in February and below market expectations of a 5.12 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since February last year, as prices of food, beverages & tobacco and housing grew less. This new slowdown in inflation could ease some pressure on the central bank to keep raising interest rates. The bank said the inflation rate is expected to fall and reach the 3 percent target in the first quarter of 2019.

Year-on-year, cost rose at a slower pace for food, beverages and tobacco (5.35 percent vs 5.97 percent in February) and housing (2.54 percent vs 2.55 percent). In contrast, inflation picked up for energy (8.85 percent vs 8.2 percent) and education (4.84 percent vs 4.83 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.32 percent, below 0.38 percent in February and estimates of 0.41 percent.

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.33 percent during the month (0.49 percent in February) and 4.0 percent year-on-year (4.27 percent in February). 


Tuesday March 27 2018
Mexico Posts Largest Trade Surplus Since 2013
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a USD 1062 million trade surplus in February of 2018 from a USD 759.2 million a year ago and beating market expectations of a USD 476 million surplus. It was the largest trade surplus since 2013, as exports rose faster than imports, boosted by higher non-oil and oil sales.

Year-on-year, exports soared 12.3 percent to USD 35,210 million, the strongest gain for a February month since 2012. Non-oil sales, which accounted for more than 90 percent of total exports, increased 10.8 percent to USD 32,627 million. Shipments grew for manufactured products (10.5 percent), primarily steel products (21 percent); automotive products (17.9 percent); machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (12 percent) and professional and scientific equipment (9.9 percent). Meantime, sales also went up for mining products (6.7 percent) and agricultural goods (17.3 percent), namely fruit and edible fruit (36.3 percent); tomato (33.5 percent); pepper (32.6 percent); melon, watermelon and papaya (32.2 percent) and avocados (23.3 percent). 

Oil exports advanced 36.6 percent to USD 2,583 million. Mexico sold 1.451 million barrels a day, above 1.217 million a year ago. Crude oil prices also were up to USD 56.21 a barrel, USD 11.50 more than in February of 2017.

Non-oil exports to the US, which represented more than 80 percent of total shipments, rose 8.2 percent, driven by exports of autos (11.7 percent) and other exports (6.4 percent). Sales to the rest of the world jumped 23.1 percent, boosted by a 54.6 percent climb in shipments of autos and 11 percent rise in other sales.

Imports grew at a softer 11.7 percent to USD 34,148 million. Oil purchases rose 28.9 percent while non-oil imports increased 9.7 percent with biggest gains recorded for capital goods (20.1 percent); consumer goods (12.1 percent) and intermediate goods (10.6 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 4 percent in February from January and imports went up 2 percent, thus shrinking the trade deficit to USD 451,2 million from USD 1,149 million.


Thursday March 08 2018
Mexico Inflation Rate Lowest in a Year
INEGI | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Mexico increased 5.34 percent year-on-year in February of 2018, slightly below a 5.55 percent rise in January and market expectations of 5.37 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate in a year when it was 4.86 percent. The central bank targets inflation at 3 percent with a one percentage point tolerance zone on each side. It expects inflation to converge to 3 percent by the end of 2018.

Inflation edged down slightly for housing (2.55 percent compared to 2.62 percent) and food, drinks and tobacco (5.97  percent compared to 6.5 percent). On the other hand, prices rose more for energy (8.2 percent compared to 7 percent) and education (4.83 percent compared to 4.69 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.38 percent, below 0.58 percent in January and forecasts of 0.41 percent. 

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.49 percent during the month (0.28 percent in January) and 4.27 percent year-on-year (4.56 percent in January).


Tuesday February 27 2018
Mexico Posts Largest Trade Deficit on Record
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico recorded a USD 4.408 million trade gap in January of 2018 from a USD 3471 million a year ago and worse than market expectations of a USD 3353 million shortfall. It was the highest trade gap on record, as imports rose faster than exports, underpinned by higher oil purchases.

Year-on-year, imports jumped 14.1 percent to USD 35,138 million. Oil purchases grew 14.8 percent while non-oil imports rose 14.1 percent with biggest increases reported for primarily capital goods (18.8 percent); consumer goods (16.9 percent) and intermediate goods (13 percent).

Exports advanced at a slower 12.5 percent to USD 30,730 million, the lowest value in a year. Non-oil shipments, which accounted for more than 90 percent of total exports, rose 11.6 percent to USD 28,403 million. Sales jumped for mining products (60.7 percent) and agricultural goods (20.9 percent) such as avocados (60.8 percent); tomato (40.6 percent); citrus fruits (38.9 percent); fresh vegetables (16.7 percent) and strawberries (16.4 percent). Also, shipments advanced for manufactured products (10.5 percent) namely machinery and special equipment for diverse industries (23.8 percent), steel products (21.2 percent), professional and scientific equipment (15.2 percent), chemicals (14.9 percent) and vehicles (9 percent). 

Oil exports went up 24.1 percent to USD 2,327 million. Mexico exported 1.107 million barrels a day, above 1.085 million a year ago. Crude oil prices also rose to USD 58.08 a barrel, USD 3.94 more than in January of 2017.

Non-oil exports to the US, which accounted for over 80 percent of total shipments grew 10.1 percent as sales of autos was up 5.3 percent and other exports grew 12.5 percent.  Exports to the rest of the world soared 18.5 percent boosted by a 30.7 percent surge in shipments of autos while other sales increased 14.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports fell 2 percent in January from December and imports declined 2.5 percent, thus shrinking the trade deficit to USD 1232 million from USD 1447 million.



Friday February 23 2018
Mexico GDP Growth Revised Down in Q4
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 0.8 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2017, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.2 percent contraction in the previous period but below initial estimates of a 1 percent growth. Still, it was the strongest expansion in four quarters as growth in agriculture and services was enough to offset a contraction in industry.

Services were main driver of growth, expending 1 percent, below 1.2 percent reported in a preliminary estimate but compared to no growth in the third quarter. Also, agriculture grew 2.1 percent, below 3.1 percent in a preliminary estimate but following a 1.5 percent rise in Q3. 

Industrial output edged down 0.1 percent, extending losses for the third quarter and below 0.1 percent rise in the preliminary estimate. The contraction slowed for mining and quarrying (-1.1 percent versus -4.7 percent) and utilites (-0.2 percent versus -0.4 percent). On the other hand, construction rebounded (0.4 percent compared to -0.3 percent) and manufacturing rose slightly faster (0.7 percent compared to 0.5 percent). 

Year-on-year, the GDP rose 1.5 percent, the least since the last quarter of 2013, and below an upwardly revised 1.6 percent rise in the third quarter and initial estimates of 1.8 percent.

Considering full 2017, the economy grew 2 percent, the least since 2013 and below 2.1 percent in the previous estimate and 2.9 percent in 2016.


Friday February 23 2018
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Weakest Since 2013
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy grew 1.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, below a preliminary estimate of 1.8 percent and compared to an upwardly revised 1.6 percent in the previous period. It was the slowest expansion since the last quarter of 2013, as the industrial activity contracted further and services rose at the same pace. Considering full 2017, the economy grew 2 percent, below 2.1 percent in the previous estimate and 2.9 percent in 2016. It is the lowest growth rate since 2013.

The services sector advanced 2.4 percent, below the preliminary estimate of a 2.6 percent growth, but at the same pace as in the previous period. Output increased less for financial services and insurance (5.4 percent vs 8 percent); real estate activities (0.7 percent vs 1.4 percent); information and communication (3.9 percent vs 6.2 percent); health and social activities (1.9 percent vs 2.5 percent) while it fell for professional, scientific and technical activities (-5.8 percent vs -5.6 percent) and business services (-1.6 percent vs -0.5 percent). In contrast, faster growth was reported for wholesale trade (4.9 percent vs 4 percent in Q3); retail trade (2 percent vs 0.2 percent); transportation (2.7 percent vs 2.6 percent) and cultural and sports activities (3.2 percent vs 2.4 percent).

Industrial activity contracted 1 percent, compared to a 0.7 percent fall in the preliminary estimate and more than a downwardly revised 0.6 percent drop in the third quarter. Mining continued to shrink (-8.8 percent vs -10.7 percent) due to lower oil output (-9.8 percent vs -12.3 percent). Also, contraction was reported for construction (-1.3 percent vs -1.1 percent) and utilities (-0.6 percent vs -0.4 percent) while the manufacturing sector rose at a slower pace (1.8 percent vs 3.4 percent).

The agricultural sector grew 4.2 percent, in line with the first figure and better than an upwardly revised 2.1 percent rise in the prior period.

On a quarterly basis, the GDP advanced 0.8 percent, below an initial estimate of a 1 percent growth, while rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.2 percent fall in the previous quarter. Still, it was the strongest expansion in four quarters.