Thursday January 09 2020
Mexico Inflation Rate at over 3-Year Low of 2.83%
Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico fell to 2.83 percent in December 2019 from 2.97 percent in November but above market expectations of 2.76 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since August 2016, mainly due to a slowdown in prices of food, beverages & tobacco and falling costs of energy and agricultural goods.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a softer pace for food, beverages & tobacco (4.45 percent vs 4.56 percent in November) and other services including restaurants, mobile phones, car maintenance, medical services and package tours (4.05 percent vs 4.16 percent). In addition, cost fell for energy (-0.54 percent vs -1.80 percent) and agricultural goods (-0.03 percent vs 2.18 percent), owing to fruits (-5.40 percent vs -1.48 percent). Meantime, inflation was steady for education (at 4.73 percent) while it edged higher for housing (2.91 percent vs 2.88 percent). 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.56 percent, easing from 0.8 percent in November and slightly above market estimates of 0.5 percent. Weaker price pressure was mainly attributable to prices of energy (0.58 percent vs 4.38 percent) and agricultural goods (1.78 percent vs 1.84 percent), namely livestock products (0.48 percent vs 1.03 percent). In contrast, cost continued to advance for food, beverages & tobacco (0.35 percent vs 0.25 percent); housing (0.23 percent vs 0.17 percent) and other services (1 percent vs 0.55 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices rose 0.41 percent from a month earlier (vs 0.22 percent in November) and increased 3.59 percent over the previous year (vs 3.65 percent in November).





Friday December 27 2019
Mexico Trade Balance Swings to Surplus
INEGI | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico posted a USD 790.4 billion trade surplus in November of 2019, compared to a USD 2.3 billion gap a year earlier. Markets were expecting a USD 0.25 billion deficit. Imports slumped 10.3 percent year-on-year, the biggest annual decline since October of 2009, mainly due to a broad based fall in foreign purchases. Exports declined at a softer 2.9 percent. Considering the first eleven months of the year, the country recorded a USD 2.75 billion surplus.

Exports went down 2.9 percent year-on-year to USD 37.5 billion: non-oil sales declined 1.7 percent and oil ones fell 21.1 percent. Within non-oil, biggest drops were recorded for shipments of household metal products (-20.5 percent); professional and scientific equipment (-9.8 percent); automotive products (-3.5 percent) and electrical and electronic devices (-3.3 percent). In contrast, exports of agricultural and fisheries went up 15 percent, boosted by fresh strawberries (121.3 percent), avocados (43.6 percent), fruit and edible fruits (23.7 percent), fresh vegetables (23.3 percent) and tomatoes (4.5 percent). Sales of mining jumped 21.8 percent. 

Non-oil shipments to the US, the biggest export market, shrank 0.7 percent and to the rest of the world 6.3 percent. Auto sales to the US declined 1.8 percent and those to the rest of the world a meagre 0.1 percent. 

Considering the first eleven months of the year, exports advanced 2.3 percent to USD 422.5 billion. 

Imports declined 10.3 percent to USD 36.7 billion. It is the biggest annual decline since October of 2009, mainly due to a broad based fall in foreign purchases. Declines were seen in oil related imports (-26.2 percent), namely gasoline and gas butane and propane and non-oil ones (-8.2 percent). Purchases fell for consumption (-5.5 percent), intermediate (-11.1 percent) and capital goods (-11.3 percent). Considering the first eleven months of 2019, imports rose 2.1 percent to USD 419.7 billion.




Monday December 09 2019
Mexico Inflation Rate Falls to Over 3-Year Low in November
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico fell to 2.97 percent in November 2019 from 3.02 percent in the previous month, slightly below market expectations of 3 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 2016, as cost of fruit & vegetables dropped and housing prices slowed.

Year-on-year, prices eased for food, beverages & tobacco (4.56 percent from 4.67 percent in October); agricultural goods (2.18 percent from 3.82 percent), namely fruits and vegetables (-1.48 percent from 2.36 percent); and services (3.67 percent from 3.58 percent), of which housing (2.88 percent from 2.93 percent). 

On the other hand, cost of energy fell less (-1.8 percent from -3.2 percent); while prices of other services increased further (4.16 percent from 3.91 percent). Additionally, inflation was steady for education (at 4.73 percent). 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.81 percent, after rising 0.54 percent in the prior month and compared with market consensus of a 0.83 percent increase. Main upward pressure came from prices of energy (4.38 percent from 3.30 percent), as the warm season electricity tariff program subsidy concluded; agricultural goods (1.84 percent from 0.11 percent), of which fruits and vegetables (2.86 percent from 0.41 percent); and services (0.33 percent from 0.23 percent), in particular other services (0.55 percent from 0.32 percent). In contrast, cost of food, beverages & tobacco slowed (0.25 percent from 0.31 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices advanced 0.22 percent from a month earlier (vs 0.25 percent in October) and increased 3.65 percent over a year ago (vs 3.68 percent in October).


Wednesday November 27 2019
Mexico Trade Gap Narrows Sharply in October
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to USD 726 million in October 2019 from USD 2934 million in the corresponding month of the previous year and compared with market expectations of a USD 1714 million shortfall. Imports fell 6.4 percent over a year earlier while exports went down at a softer 1.5 percent. Considering the first ten months of the year, the country recorded a USD 1962 million surplus.

Imports dropped 6.4 percent year-on-year to USD 41456 million in October, mostly due to lower purchases of intermediate goods (-6.3 percent), of which oil (-23.5 percent) and non-oil (-4.4 percent) ; consumption goods (-2.4 percent), namely oil (-19.7 percent); and capital (-13.1 percent). 

Exports declined 1.5 percent to USD 40731 million, as oil exports fell 30.4 percent. The country exported 0.963 million barrels of crude oil per day, lower than 1.207 million barrels a year earlier while the price was USD 50.04 per barrel, $21.25 below the price in October 2018. In contrast, non-oil exports increased 0.4 percent driven by higher sales of agricultural products (6.9 percent), led by citrics ( 47.5 percent), avocado (31.9 percent), fresh vegetables (29.7 percent), comestible fruits (24.8 percent) and pepper (5.3 percent). Also, extractive exports jumped 28.7 percent. On the other hand, sales of manufacturing dropped (-0.1 percent), in particular paper & printing (-6.7 percent), automotive products (-6.2 percent), textiles, clothing & leather (-4.1 percent); and plastic & rubber (-1.7 percent). 

Non-oil exports to the US was unchanged, as auto sales decreased 8.6 percent while other goods sales rose 4.6 percent. Sales to the rest of the world advanced 2.5 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico trade surplus widened to USD 489 million in October from USD 449 million in September, as exports increased 0.27 percent and imports advanced at a slower 0.14 percent. 


Monday November 25 2019
Mexican Economy Stalls in Q3
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2019, below a preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent growth and following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in the prior period, final data showed. The primary sector recovered, services activities grew and industrial output shrank at a softer pace.

The services sector expanded 0.1 percent in the third quarter of the year, after stalling in the previous quarter and above a preliminary flat reading. Output rebounded in information & communication (4.9 percent vs -0.2 percent in Q2); and professional, scientific and technical services (1.5 percent vs -3.1 percent). Also, output grew in real estate (0.2 percent vs a flat reading) and increased further in corporate services (0.9 percent vs 0.7 percent). In addition, output dropped less in wholesale trade (-0.5 percent vs -1 percent); finance & insurance (-1 percent vs -1.7 percent); and  business services (-0.5 percent vs 0.7 percent). In contrast, output growth eased in food & accomodation services (0.2 percent vs 1.6 percent); cultural and sports activities (1.2 percent vs 1.6 percent); transport & storage (a flat reading vs 1 percent); and retail trade (a flat reading vs 1.4 percent). Also, education shrank 1.1 percent, faster than a 0.4 percent contraction.

The industrial sector shrank 0.1 percent, less than a 0.2 percent contraction in the second quarter of 2019, matching a flash reading. Construction output fell 2.8 percent, slower than a 4.1 percent decrease in the prior period; while mining output increased 1.2 percent, rebounding from a 0.7 percent decline. Meantime, output growth slowed in manufacturing (0.5 percent vs 0.8 percent) and utilities (1.7 percent vs 2.2 percent).

The primary sector grew 3.3 percent, recovering from a 1.5 percent contraction, but slighlty below a preliminary estimate of 3.5 percent. 

Year-on-year, the economy contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019, below a preliminary figure of a 0.4 percent decline and an upwardly revised 0.9 percent contraction in the previous period. The industrial sector fell less than initially thought while services unexpectedly grew.




Monday November 25 2019
Recession in Mexico Confirmed in Q3
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy shrank 0.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, below a preliminary figure of a 0.4 percent decline and an upwardly revised 0.9 percent contraction in the previous period. The industrial sector fell less than initially thought while services unexpectedly grew.

The industrial sector shrank 1.4 percent in the third quarter of the year compared to a 3 percent contraction in the previous quarter, of which mining & quarrying (-4.2 percent vs -7.8 percent), namely the oil sub-sector (-6.2 percent vs -9.2 percent) and construction (-6.9 percent vs -7.1 percent). In contrast, output rebounded for manufacturing (1.3 percent vs -0.2 percent) and rose faster for utilities (2.5 percent vs 1.8 percent).

Services activities grew 0.1 percent (vs preliminary -0.1 percent), after falling 0.1 percent in the previous period. Growth was mainly observed in retail trade (2.9 percent vs 2.1 percent); transport & storage (1.3 percent vs 0.9 percent); information & communication (4.1 percent vs -5.2 percent); real estate activities (0.9 percent vs 1.0 percent); professional, scientific and technical services (0.7 percent vs -3.1 percent) and business services (2.7 percent vs 5.6 percent).

The primary sector expanded 5.4 percent, the most since the third quarter of 2014, recovering sharply from a 0.2 percent drop in the previous period.

On a quarterly basis, the Mexican economy stalled in the three months to September, below a preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent growth and following downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in the prior period.




Thursday November 07 2019
Mexico Inflation Rate Steady at 3-Year Low of 3%
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico's annual inflation rate was unchanged at 3 percent in October 2019, its lowest level since September 2016 and matching market expectations. While prices continued to fall for energy and grew less for services; cost of housing, food and agricultural goods rose more.

Year-on-year, energy prices decreased 3.20 percent in October, after falling 3.09 percent in the previous month. In addition, cost slowed more for services (3.58 percent vs 3.73 percent), namely other services (3.91 percent vs 4.28 percent) and inflation was steady for education (at 4.73 percent). 

On the other hand, prices advanced faster for housing (2.93 percent vs 2.89 percent); food, beverages & tobacco (4.67 percent vs 4.61 percent in September) and agricultural goods (3.82 percent vs 2.98 percent), pushed up by fruits and vegetables (2.36 percent vs 0.71 percent) and livestock (5.02 percent vs 4.86 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 0.54 percent, after increasing 0.26 percent in the previous month, compared to market expectations of 0.52 percent. Main upward pressure came from prices of energy (3.30 percent vs 0.33 percent); services (0.23 percent vs 0.20 percent), namely other services (0.32 percent vs -0.20 percent) and agricultural goods (0.11 percent vs -0.02 percent). Meanwhile, cost slowed slightly for food, beverages & tobacco (0.31 percent vs 0.38 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased 0.25 percent from a month earlier (vs 0.3 percent in September) and rose 3.68 percent over the previous year (vs 3.75 percen in September), the lowest rate in 7 months.



Wednesday October 30 2019
Mexican GDP Grows 0.1% QoQ in Q3
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico's gross domestic product advanced 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2019, after showing no growth in the previous period and below market forecasts of a 0.2 percent expansion, a preliminary estimate showed.

Agricultural output rose 3.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September, rebounding from a 3.4 percent expansion in the prior period. In addition, the industrial sector shrank 0.1 percent, less than a 0.2 percent contraction in Q2. Meanwhile, the services sector stalled, after growing 0.2 percent in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy shrank 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2019, following a 0.8 percent contraction in the prior period and missing market consensus of a 0.1 percent expansion.


Wednesday October 30 2019
Mexican Economy Enters Recession in Q3
INEGI |Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy shrank 0.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, following a 0.8 percent contraction in the previous period and missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent growth, a preliminary estimate showed.

Services acitivities contracted 0.1 percentin the third quarter of the year, after stalling in the prior period. On the other hand, industrial output shrank 1.7 percent, less than a 3 percent contraction in the previous quarter; and agricultural output expanded 5.4 percent, after growing 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2019.

On a quarterly basis, Mexico's gross domestic product advanced 0.1 percent in the three months to September, after showing no growth in the previous period and below market forecasts of a 0.2 percent expansion.


Monday October 28 2019
Mexico Posts Smallest Trade Gap in Over 2 Years
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 116 million in September 2019 from USD 301 million in the corresponding month of the previous year and compared with market expectations of a USD 245 million surplus. It was the smallest trade gap since June 2017, as imports dropped 1.8 percent over a year earlier while exports fell at a softer 1.3 percent. Considering the first nine months of the year, the country recorded a USD 2687 million surplus.

Imports declined 1.8 percent year-on-year to USD 37338 million in September, mainly due to lower purchases of consumption goods (-3.8 percent), namely oil (-23.1 percent); and capital (-13.5 percent). Meanwhile, imports of intermediate goods rose 0.2 percent, of which non oil (1.7 percent).

Exports went down 1.3 percent to USD 37222 million, as oil exports dropped 29.3 percent. The country exported 0.995 million barrels of crude oil per day, lower than 1.206 million barrels a year earlier while the price was USD 57.11 per barrel, $11.15 below the price in September 2018. On the other hand, non-oil exports went up 1 percent boosted by higher sales of manufacturing (0.8 percent), in particular food, alcoholic & beverages (16.1 percent), mining metallury (14.7 percent), professional & scientific equipment (7.2 percent), and machinery & equipment for industries (5.5 percent). Additionally, sales of agricultural products advanced 12.1 percent, driven by vegetables (42.9 percent), mango (38.6 percent), fruits /23.6 percent), avocado (21.2 percent), and pepper (14.7 percent).

Non-oil exports to the US increased 2.1 percent, as other goods rose (4.7 percent) while auto sales fell (-2.2 percent) Sales to the rest of the world went down 4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico trade surplus decreased to USD 449 million in September from USD 1690 million in August, as exports declined 5.26 percent while imports fell at a slower 2.39 percent.