Tuesday July 09 2019
Mexico June Inflation Rate Eases to 4-Month Low
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico declined to 3.95 percent in June 2019 from 4.28 percent in the previous month, matching market expectations. The slowdown was mainly driven by cost of energy due to the electricity tariff program for warm season.

Year-on-year, prices of energy eased to 2.51 percent from  6.51 percent in May. On the other hand, cost went up further for food, beverages & tobacco (5.01 percent compared to 4.88 percent); agricultural goods (6.23 percent compared to 6.08 percent), in particular livestock goods (4.89 percent compared to 3.29 percent); housing (2.84 percent compared to 2.83 percent); and other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (4.39 percent compared to 4.30 percent). Additionally, inflation was steady for education (at 4.86 percent, the same as in May).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.06 percent, rebounding from a 0.29 percent fall in the prior month and slightly below market forecasts of a 0.07 percent rise. Prices advanced for other services (0.57 percent compared to -0.18 percent in May) and rose at a faster pace for services (0.38 percent compared to 0.03 percent). Also, cost of energy decreased less (-1.55 percent compared to -4.25 percent).

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased by 0.3 percent from a month earlier (vs 0.16 percent in May) and by 3.85 percent over the prior year (vs 3.77 percent in May).




Thursday June 27 2019
Mexico May Trade Balance Swings to Surplus
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade balance shifted to a USD 1031 million surplus in May 2019 from a USD 1587 million deficit in the corresponding month of the previous year and beating market expectations of a USD 1.03 billion shortfall. Exports increased 6.7 percent year-on-year and imports rose at a softer 0.1 percent. Considering the first five months of the year, the country recorded a USD 584 million trade surplus.

Year-on-year, exports went up 6.7 percent to USD 41825 million in May. Non-oil exports jumped 7.7 percent, driven by higher sales of manufacturing (8 percent), namely automotive products (16 percent), machinery & equipment for industries (11.9 percent), food, alcoholic & beverages (10.7 percent), and professional & scientific equipment (5.7 percent). In addition, sales advanced for agricultural products (2.7 percent), of which fresh fruit (118.1 percent), pepper (20.1 percent), vegetables (19.1 percent), melon, watermelon & papaya (15.3 percent) and avocado (11.5 percent); and mining (7.5 percent). On the other hand, oil exports dropped 6.9 percent. The country exported 1.205 million barrels of crude oil per day, higher than 1.023 million barrels a year ago while the price was USD 61.96 per barrel, $0.77 below the price in May 2018.

Non-oil exports to the US rose 8.5 percent, driven by auto sales (19.8 percent) and others (3.5 percent). Sales to the rest of the world went up 4.1 percent.

Imports increased 0.1 percent to USD 40795 million, boosted by higher purchases of consumption goods (1.1 percent), mostly gasoline, butane & propane gas (8.9 percent); and intermediate goods (0.3 percent), in particular non-oil (0.4 percent). Meanwhile, purchases of capital goods declined 3 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico trade surplus widened to USD 984 million in May from USD 157 million in April. Exports advanced 3.94 percent month-over-month and imports rose 1.81 percent.




Friday June 07 2019
Mexico Annual Inflation Rate Slows to 4.28% in May
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico decreased to 4.28 percent in May 2019 from 4.41 percent in April and below market consensus of 4.36 percent. Prices eased mainly due to energy as the electricity tariff program for warm season started in eleven cities of the country.

Year-on-year, cost of energy rose 6.51 percent, slowing from 8.58 percent in April. Meanwhile, prices increased further for food, beverages & tobacco (4.88 percent from 4.75 percent); agricultural goods (6.08 percent from 4.77 percent), namely fruits & vegetables (11.26 percent from 10.19 percent) and livestock goods (3.29 percent from 1.38 percent); housing (2.83 percent from 2.78 percent); other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (4.30 percent from 3.79 percent); and education (4.86 percent from 4.84 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.29 percent, after a 0.05 percent gain in the previous month and compared to market forecasts of a 0.22 percent fall. Prices dropped for other services (-0.18 percent from 0.89 percent in April) and fell at a faster pace for energy (-4.25 percent from -3.32 percent). Additionally, cost eased for agricultural goods (0.17 percent from 0.63 percent) and housing (0.26 percent from 0.31 percent). 

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices advanced by 0.16 percent from a month earlier (vs 0.46 percent in April) and by 3.77 percent over the previous year (vs 3.87 percent in April).


Friday May 24 2019
Mexico Economy Shrinks 0.2% QoQ in Q1
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The gross domestic product in Mexico declined 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to March 2019, in line with the preliminary figure and after showing no growth in the prior quarter. Services and industry shrank and the primary sector lost steam.

The industrial sector fell 0.6 percent, matching an earlier estimate and compared with an upwardly revised 1.3 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2018. Output decreased in mining (-1.4 percent vs -4 percent); utilities (-1.3 percent vs -1.6 percent) and manufacturing (-0.4 percent, the same pace as in Q4) while it rebounded for construction (0.8 percent vs -1.4 percent).

Services shrank 0.2 percent, in line with the initial figure and compared to a downwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. Contractions were seen in wholesale trade (-1.9 percent vs 0.5 percent); transport & storage (-0.7 percent vs -0.2 percent); information & communication (-5.4 percent vs 2.7 percent); corporate services (-2.2 percent vs -2.1 percent); education (-0.2 percent vs 0.6 percent); cultural and sports activities (-2 percent vs -1.7 percent) and food & accomodation services (-0.7 percent vs -0.2 percent). Also, growth slowed in retail trade (0.7 percent vs 0.9 percent) and it stalled for finance & insurance (vs 0.9 percent in Q4). In contrast, professional, scientific and technical services (2.7 percent vs 1.0 percent) and business services (2.6 percent vs 0.6 percent) advanced much faster.

In contrast, the primary sector expanded 2.6 percent, matching the preliminary reading, but easing from an upwardly revised 2.8 percent rise in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the GDP grew 1.2 percent, below an earlier figure of 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent in the previous quarter. It was the weakest growth rate since Q1 2018.




Friday May 24 2019
Mexico Trade Balance Swings to Surplus in April
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade balance shifted to a USD 1370 million surplus in April 2019 from a USD 289 million deficit in the same month of the previous year and compared with market expectations of a USD 544 billion shortfall. Exports rose 6.1 percent year-on-year and imports went up at a slower 1.6 percent. Considering the first four months of the year, the country posted a USD 446 million trade gap.

Exports increased 6.1 percent year-on-year to USD 39447 million in April. Non-oil exports jumped 7.6 percent, boosted by higher sales of manufacturing (7.8 percent), of which machinery & equipment for industries (13.6 percent), professional & scientific equipment (13.3 percent), food, alcoholic & beverages (12.1 percent), and automotive products (9 percent). Additionally, sales of agricultural products rose (14.5 percent), namely fresh fruit (81.8 percent), vegetables (38 percent), meat (37.3 percent) and pepper (26.5 percent). Meanwhile, sales of mining dropped 21.7 percent and oil exports fell 14.3 percent. The country exported 1.023 million barrels of crude oil per day, lower than 1.266 million barrels a year ago while the price was USD 61.61 per barrel, $2.70 above the price in April 2018.

Non-oil exports to the US went up 11.7 percent, driven by auto sales (15.8 percent) and others (9.7 percent). Sales to the rest of the world declined 8 percent.

Imports advanced 1.6 percent to USD 38077 million, due to higher purchases of intermediate goods (2.8 percent), in paticular non-oil (3.5 percent) and consumption goods (2.9 percent), namely gasoline, butane & propane gas (10.6 percent). On the other hand, purchases of capital goods fell 9.2 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico trade balance swang to a USD 18 million surplus in April from a USD 238 million shortfall in March. Exports rose 2.18 percent month-over-month and imports advanced 1.49 percent.


Friday May 24 2019
Mexico Annual GDP Growth Rate Revised Down to 1.2%
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy advanced 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, below a preliminary figure of 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent in the previous period. It is the weakest expansion since Q1 2018, as services slowed and the industrial sector continued to shrank. Primary activities rose slightly less than initially estimated.

Services grew 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2019, matching the initial estimate and slowing from a 2.7 percent expansion in the previous period. Growth slowed in: retail trade (0.8 percent vs 1.8 percent in Q4); wholesale trade (2.8 percent vs 3 percent); transport & storage (0.7 percent vs 2.2 percent); information & communication (0.1 percent vs 8.5 percent); finance & insurance (6.8 percent vs 9 percent) and real estate activities (1.9 percent vs 2.1 percent). Moreover, declines were seen in corporate services (-3 percent vs -1.1 percent); cultural and sports activities (-2.4 percent vs 0.2 percent) and food & accomodation services (-1.3 percent vs 0.2 percent). In contrast, professional, scientific and technical services (5.6 percent vs 4.1 percent) and business services (7.7 percent vs 3.5 percent) posted sharp gains.

The industrial sector contracted 0.7 percent, in line with the preliminary figure, following a 0.9 percent decline in the previous period. Declines were recorded in mining (-7.6 percent vs -7.3 percent), mostly due to oil (-10.2 percent vs -8.2 percent); utilities (-0.7 percent vs 1.4 percent) and construction (-0.8 percent vs -2.2 percent). Meanwhile, manufacturing activity rose slightly faster (1.6 percent vs 1.5 percent).

In contrast, the primary sector advanced 5.8 percent, below a preliminary reading of 5.9 percent, but faster than a downwardly revised 2.9 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, in line with the initial figure and after showing no growth in Q4.





Thursday May 09 2019
Mexico Inflation Rate Quickens to 4.4% in April
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The annual inflation rate in Mexico increased to 4.4 percent in April 2019 from 4.0 percent in the previous month, matching market expectations. It is the highest inflation rate since January, mainly due to rising prices over Easter linked to travel and tourism. Also, food, beverages & tobacco and agricultural goods were much more expensive.

Year-on-year, inflation accelerated for other services including restaurants, telephone services, medical services and package tourist services (4.98 percent vs 3.79 percent in March) mainly attributable to increased turism over Easter; food, beverages & tobacco (4.75 percent vs 3.56 percent); agricultural goods (4.77 percent vs 3.70 percent), namely fruits & vegetables (10.19 percent vs 9.6 percent) and livestock goods (1.38 percent vs -0.21 percent); energy (8.58 percent vs 8.15 percent) and housing (2.78 percent vs 2.68 percent). At the same time, prices advanced at the same pace for education (4.84 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.05 percent, easing from a 0.39 percent rise in March and slightly below market expectations of a 0.06 percent gain. Prices fell for energy (-3.32 percent vs 1.78 percent) while they rose for food, beverages & tobacco (0.40 percent vs 0.38 percent); agricultural goods (0.63 percent vs -0.67 percent) and housing (0.31 percent vs 0.30 percent). 

The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices increased by 0.46 percent month-over-month (vs 0.34 percent vs March) and by 3.87 percent over the previous year (vs 3.55 percent in March).


Tuesday April 30 2019
Mexico GDP Contracts 0.2% QoQ in Q1
INEGI | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The Mexican economy shrank 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to March of 2019, following a 0.2 percent growth in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. Both the industrial sector and services contracted.

The industrial sector declined 0.6 percent, following a 1.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2018. At the same time, the services sector shrank 0.2 percent, after growing 0.7 percent in the previous quarter. In contrast, the primary sector advanced 2.6 percent, quickening from 2.2 percent in Q4 2018.

Year-on-year, the gross domestic product expanded 1.3 percent compared to 1.7 percent in the previous period and marking the slowest growth since Q1 2018.


Tuesday April 30 2019
Mexico GDP Annual Growth at 1-Year Low of 1.3%
INEGI | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

The gross domestic product in Mexico advanced 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, easing from a 1.7 percent expansion in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the slowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2018.

Services advanced 1.9 percent, slowing from a 2.7 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the industrial sector continued to contract (-0.7 percent from -0.9 percent). On the other hand, primary activities (5.9 percent from 3 percent) expanded faster. 

On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, after a 0.2 percent advance in the last quarter of 2018. 


Friday April 26 2019
Mexico Trade Surplus Narrows in March
INEGI | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Mexico’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 1429 million in March 2019 from USD 1713 million in the same month of the previous year. Exports dropped 1.2 percent year-on-year and imports fell at a softer 0.5 percent. Considering the first quarter of the year, the country posted a trade shortfall of USD 2158 million.

Exports declined 1.2 percent year-on-year to USD 38961 million in March. Non-oil exports went down 1.2 percent, mainly due to lower sales of manufacturing (-0.9 percent), namely machinery and equipment for agriculture & livestock (-28.1 percent), steel products (-9.1 percent), and electrical & electronic equipment (-6.4 percent), plastic & rubber (-3.8 percent). Also, sales decreased for agricultural products (-5.6 percent), of which onion & garlic (-51 percent), sea products (-48.6 percent), and fresh fruit (21.3 percent); and mining (-4.6 percent). Additionally, oil exports fell 2.0 percent. The country exported 1.150 million barrels of crude oil per day, lower than 1.176 million barrels a year earlier while the price was USD 58.91 per barrel, $3.46 above the price in March 2018.

Non-oil exports to the US rose 1.0 percent, led by auto sales (6.1 percent). Sales to the rest of the world decreased 10.1 percent.

Imports dropped 0.5 percent to USD 37531 million, due to lower purchased of consumption (-4.6 percent), namely non-oil (-4.6 percent) and gasoline, butane & propane gas (-4.5 percent). On the other hand, purchases increased for intermediate goods (0.1 percent) and capital (0.2 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico trade gap fell to USD 353 million in March from USD 388 million in February. Exports declined 1.94 percent month-over-month and imports went down 1.79 percent.