IDX Composite Plunges 7.35% on MSCI Freeze

Indonesian equities edged down 10 points, or 0.2%, to 6,085 in Friday morning trade, extending losses for a ninth straight session and lingering around their weakest level since April 2025. Selling pressure persisted after President Prabowo’s move to establish a centralized export agency, raising concerns over higher costs for listed firms, though ones with high domestic exposure are likely to be more resilient. Fitch Ratings also kept a negative outlook on domestic banks, citing sovereign risks. Still, a rise in U.S. stock futures helped limit further losses. Non-cyclicals, financials, and property led the fall, with major decliners including Kawasan Industri Jababeka (-8.2%), Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (-4.7%), Telkom Indonesia (-3.7%), and Astra Intl. (-3.6%). Markets are on track for a second weekly drop, down almost 10% so far and about 30% ytd. Traders now await Q1 current account data due later today, after the previous release showed a swing into deficit on a widening oil trade gap.

Indonesian shares tumbled 136 points or 2.2% to 6,185 in early Thursday trade, extending losses for an eighth straight session and lingering at their weakest level in 13 months. A Wall Street rally overnight failed to lift sentiment as investors shunned risk after President Prabowo tightened export rules on key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys, mandating shipments through a single state-owned exporter. Caution also mounted ahead of the Q1 current account data due Friday, following a Q4 deficit driven by a wider oil gap. Still, losses were capped by Bank Indonesia’s 50bps hike to 5.25% on Wednesday, aimed at stabilizing the rupiah after repeated record lows since April. The government, meanwhile, projected 2027 growth at 5.8% to 6.5%, keeping its 8% target for 2029. Declines were broad, led by transport, energy, and industrials, with Barito Pacific (-9.9%), Medco Energi (-8.7%), Darma Henwa (-7.7%), and Amman Mineral Intl. (-5.7%) among the steepest laggards.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite climbed 54 points or 0.9% to 6,429 in Wednesday morning trade, snapping a six-session slide as bargain hunters stepped in after the benchmark hit a 13-month low the day before. Meanwhile, President Prabowo is set to present the 2027 budget framework to parliament later today, while the finance ministry reportedly plans daily IDR 2 trillion injections into the bond market to stabilize the rupiah, curb outflows, and ease volatility. Bank Indonesia, under pressure as the currency hovers near repeated historic lows, signaled a tilt toward pro-stability policy ahead of its meeting conclusion today. Gains were tempered by inflation risks from higher oil prices, despite April inflation staying mild. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures weakened as Treasury yields climbed while tensions between Washington and Tehran lingered. Standout movers included Japfa Comfeed (4.4%), Timah (3.4%), Telkom Indonesia (3.2%), and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (2.7%).