Business confidence in Hong Kong decreased to 2 in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 6 in the previous period. By sector, expectations worsened for financing & insurance (13 compared to 23 in Q3 2018) and fell for real estate (-6 compared to 1); manufacturing (-1 compared to 23) and professional & business services (-2 compared to 3). In addition, prospects deteriorated further for construction (-26 compared to -10). On the other hand, expectations improved for transportation & storage (8 compared to 5) and rebounded for retail (19 compared to -1) and accommodation & food services (17 compared to -10). Business Confidence in Hong Kong averaged 7.98 Index Points from 2006 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 32 Index Points in the third quarter of 2006 and a record low of -53 Index Points in the first quarter of 2009.
Business Confidence in Hong Kong is expected to be 5.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Hong Kong to stand at -0.84 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Business Confidence is projected to trend around 1.14 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.