Sugar Futures Hit 2020-Lows

2025-10-28 14:55 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Sugar futures traded around 14.5 cents per pound, reaching the lowest since December 2020 and extending the year-to-date decline to about 25%.

Market fundamentals remain influenced by expectations of improved global supply, led by top producer Brazil.

Unica’s latest report showed a rise in sugar output in the Center-South region for the 2025/26 harvest, while Datagro projected an increase in the 2026/27 harvest.

The overall consensus forecasts Brazil’s sugar output at 42.28 million tons in 2026/27, up from 40.5 million tons in 2025/26.

At the same time, booming corn ethanol production is reshaping Brazil’s biofuel market and putting downward pressure on sugar prices.

With corn-based ethanol cheaper to produce than sugarcane ethanol, mills are increasingly diverting cane to sugar production, further boosting supply.

Favorable harvest prospects in India and Thailand, following abundant monsoon rains, combined with the expansion of plantations, reinforce the scenario of ample supply.



News Stream
Sugar Futures at Over 1-Week Low
Sugar futures in the US eased to just below 14.1 US cents, the lowest since late May, partly influenced by falling oil prices and the ongoing weakness in the Brazilian real. The strong performance of the 2026/27 sugarcane harvest is also putting pressure on prices, due to increased supply and growing inventories. The Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (UNICA) reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South region reached 2.475 million tons in April of the 2026/27 crop year, a volume 55.3% higher than that recorded in the same period of the previous cycle. Strength in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, also reinforced the perception of a comfortable supply. However, concerns persisted about the potential impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon on the upcoming global sugarcane harvest, particularly in Brazil, India and Thailand.
2026-06-09
Sugar Futures on The Rise
Sugar futures in the US traded slightly above 14.3 US cents, up from one-month-lows of 13.9 US cents hit on May 28, supported by higher oil prices that encourage cane diversion to ethanol production and may tighten supply. At the same time, concerns are rising over an emerging El Niño pattern and a weaker Indian monsoon outlook. India’s weather office projected monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-term average for June–September, down from 92% in April. This led Covrig to reduce the global sugar surplus for 2026–27 to 100,000 tons, down from 1.4 million tons projected on March 7. Meanwhile, Unica reported a strong increase in sugar production in Brazil’s key Center-South region, with output rising 109.48% yoy to 1.8 million metric tons in the second half of April. Data also indicated a continued shift toward ethanol production, with mills directing 59.66% of cane to biofuel.
2026-06-01
Sugar Hits 4-week Low
Sugar decreased to 14.37 USd/Lbs, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar gained 1.14%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 14.85%.
2026-05-27