Silver Retreats after Record Setting Rally

Silver prices declined to $75.7 per ounce on Friday, amid mounting inflation concerns driven by elevated oil prices and growing expectations of a US interest rate increase this year. Oil prices remained close to four-year peaks as investors doubted the likelihood of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations. According to Iranian media, Iran’s foreign minister met with Pakistan’s interior minister on Friday to discuss potential war-ending proposals, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged "slight progress" in mediated discussions but cautioned that Washington and Tehran had not yet reached a deal. The ongoing conflict and inflationary pressures have prompted markets to factor in a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year, with approximately a 55% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by October. Fed Governor Christopher Waller added his voice to this view, stating that the central bank should abandon its easing bias in policy statements.

Silver held above $76 an ounce on Friday and was on track to finish the week little changed, as conflicting signals surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations kept investors cautious over inflation risks and the outlook for interest rates. Tehran stated that the latest US proposal had partially bridged the gap between the two sides. However, reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered the country’s enriched uranium stockpile to remain within its borders complicated negotiations, as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program remains a key US objective. Iran is also reportedly in talks with Oman on establishing a permanent toll system that would formalize its control over shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though President Donald Trump rejected the idea. Despite the recent stability, silver prices remain nearly 20% lower since the conflict began, amid concerns that an energy-driven inflation shock could prompt central banks to tighten monetary policy.

Silver fell back below $75 an ounce on Thursday as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal diminished following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive ordering the country’s uranium to remain on Iranian soil. The move contradicted Israeli officials’ assertions that Iran’s highly enriched uranium would need to be transferred out of the country as part of any peace deal, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly restoring its military capacity at a faster pace than expected, stoking fears of a renewed conflict in the Middle East. The prospect of a prolonged conflict sent oil prices back toward four-year highs, adding to inflation concerns and raising expectations that central banks may need to tighten monetary policy. Also, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that most officials believe a rate increase this year could still be warranted if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.