China Prime Lending Rate  Forecast


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Bank Lending Rate in China is expected to be 4.38 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Bank Lending Rate in China to stand at 4.56 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Prime Lending Rate is projected to trend around 5.04 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


China Consumer Last Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 124 118 117 115 114 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.74 0.6 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 10 10.6 10.4 10 10.74 8
Consumer Spending 292661 318023 324264 330506 336748 389890
Disposable Personal Income 33616 35728 36202 36677 37152 41365
Personal Savings 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.4 1.1
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.38 4.44 4.5 4.56 5.04
Consumer Credit 301620 313994 330335 345998 360960 462638
Gasoline Prices 0.71 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.58
Households Debt To Gdp 45.5 46.09 45.99 45.83 45.64 43.62
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 108 109 109 109 109 109
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 116 113 111 111 110 110