Americas

As we enter the final week of May and the 13th week of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, developments in peace talks will continue to dominate headlines. With the Strait of Hormuz still mostly closed and oil prices near four-year highs, inflationary pressures persist, raising the prospect of a tighter monetary policy outlook by year-end. In the US, focus will also be on a series of appearances from Fed officials to gauge the central bank’s policy path. The US economic calendar features several key releases. April’s personal income and outlays, the PCE price index, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP will be closely watched. Housing data is in focus with the Case-Shiller index and April new home sales, which likely fell to 670,000 after two consecutive monthly gains. Additional releases include advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, as well as regional activity indices: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and Chicago PMI. US financial markets will be closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. Elsewhere in America, Canada will release monthly and quarterly GDP along with current account data. Brazil will publish Q1 GDP and April’s unemployment rate, while Mexico will report foreign trade figures.

Chicago, Illinois

Across the Atlantic, the focus will be on inflation rates in the Eurozone's largest economies as soaring energy costs have driven key ECB policymakers to call for rate hikes. Headline inflation is expected to slow by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8% in Germany, and fresh CPI data is also expected from France, Italy, and Spain. In turn, consumer and business confidence figures are also due from the Eurozone and its largest members, with the headline economic sentiment for the bloc's aggregate expected to drop by one point to 92, a near six-year low. Labor market figures will also be updated with unemployment claims in France and the unemployment rate in Germany, set to remain at 6.4%. On a similar note, the KOF leading indicator in Switzerland is due to remain broadly unchanged at 98. In the UK, a softer week of economic releases will be headline by Nationwide Housing Prices. 

Paris, France

In China, investors will focus on April industrial profit data for further insight into how companies are coping with higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict. In Japan, attention will turn to a series of key economic releases, including housing starts, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and Tokyo inflation figures. Tokyo’s May core inflation rate is expected to remain steady at 1.5%, while the April unemployment rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 2.7%, and industrial production is likely to extend recent declines. In India, markets will monitor the budget balance for 2025–2026 fiscal year under higher public spending after the country faced soaring tariffs from the US. In Australia, investors will assess inflation data, with the annual rate for April expected to ease to 4.4% from March’s 2023 highs of 4.6%. Additional data on construction work completed, household spending, private capital expenditure, and private sector credit will also be released. Elsewhere in the region, Singapore is set to publish inflation and final GDP figures, while Thailand, the Philippines, and Hong Kong will release trade statistics. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep its cash rate unchanged at 2.25% as policymakers assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict. The Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy.

Tokyo, Japan